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maybe icm fold?

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maybe icm fold? - Thu Apr 11, 2013, 06:47 AM
(#1)
adohole's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 1,083
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http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-h...940_C23DEE3263
this player has been verry agressive


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Thu Apr 11, 2013, 01:57 PM
(#2)
chillipops's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 1,090
Quote:
Originally Posted by adohole View Post
http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-h...940_C23DEE3263
this player has been verry agressive

Your never folding AK here, low stacked and against agro player imo ! a higher percentage of the time your hand holds and you move up
 
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Thu Apr 11, 2013, 03:03 PM
(#3)
adohole's Avatar
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the reason why i posted this hands is if i fold there is somone with 2.5bb who will defenitly bust before me and 2 other short stacks and AK is almost never far ehad and its a drawing hand i dont know if somoene has the icm number or a site where i can see it?


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Thu Apr 11, 2013, 03:29 PM
(#4)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
I disagree with chillipops, but hey, to each their own

With 3 players with lower stacks and having the possibilities of busting before you, I would of folded to the big stack. By calling, you were putting your tournament life on the line, I would of waited for a better position and a made hand vs. the big stack.

AK is a strong hand, but only a strong potential hand. Sure, some people will prone ATC, but you need a strong bankroll and you've got to be playing plenty of these games to take chances like that.

Here's my blog on AK:
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/blogs/post/?id=44562

JUST my 2 cents
 
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Thu Apr 11, 2013, 05:45 PM
(#5)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Hi adohole,

Interesting spot actually.

My inital thoughts are call. Reason being we are inside the money already. The biggest money bump is normally 8th to 7th until we get up to 4th. So ICM has less effect once the money bubble bursts. AKo is ahead of this guys range by a decent margin. Winning the hand makes us equal chip lead and we have a real shot at winning it. And just the gut feel that in a Turbo and with 7BBs we really can't fold AKo

But the question was ICM so I plugged in the numbers

Code:
 
Stacks     Current EV   Win          WinEV      Lose         LoseEV 
8,570.00    9.66       19,390.00     12.61      0             3.67 
6,240.00    8.78        6,240.00      8.30      6,240.00      9.75 
3,005.00    6.72        3,005.00      6.19      3,005.00      7.81 
11,310.00  10.84       11,310.00     10.45     11,310.00      11.64 
6,915.00    9.11        6,915.00      8.65      6,915.00      10.06 
29,210.00   13.95      20,640.00     12.87     40,030.00      16.14

So if we win we gain about $3 in $EV and if we lose we lose about $6 in $EV

Meaning we're risking $6 to win $3 we need to win 66% of the time to break even.

Vs his actual holdings we don't have it, vs a range including the actual holding we don't have the odds.

This ICM analysis isn't pure though since we aren't closing the action. Other short stacks could call behind with worse than us and still bust before us when we lose and also improve the upside when we win more chips.

Other things ICM doesn't take into consideration is stack size, skill levels, position of the button (who pays the BB next hand etc), speed of the tourney.

So although we don't have the exact odds to call this shove, we aren't far off. Adding in those other intangibles I think I'm more comfortable with a call than a fold.

Cheers
Andy




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Last edited by ahar010; Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 05:48 PM..
 
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Thu Apr 11, 2013, 05:51 PM
(#6)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahar010 View Post
Hi adohole,

Interesting spot actually.

My inital thoughts are call. Reason being we are inside the money already.

Andy
Andy, I assume that he wasn't in the money yet
I think there was 11-12 players left

But if he was in the money, than yes, it's a call
 
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Thu Apr 11, 2013, 05:51 PM
(#7)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
I would of folded to the big stack. By calling, you were putting your tournament life on the line, I would of waited for a better position and a made hand vs. the big stack.
The phrase beggers can't be choosers comes to mind

With the big stack shoving there really is no making a hand before commiting. AKo is about the best equity we can expect unless we get super lucky and pickup a big premium pair in the next 2-3 hands.




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Thu Apr 11, 2013, 05:53 PM
(#8)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
Andy, I assume that he wasn't in the money yet
I think there was 11-12 players left

But if he was in the money, than yes, it's a call
Yeah it's final table. Stacks sizes add up to 45 starting stacks




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Fri Apr 12, 2013, 02:54 AM
(#9)
adohole's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 1,083
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thanks guys whas indeed in the money already


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