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why am i so unlucky

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why am i so unlucky - Thu Apr 11, 2013, 02:29 PM
(#1)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

so i decided to try my hand at tournaments because my hands are not holding up in cash games im lucky if i get a 2 pair out of 300 hands then this happened i play 2 hands in this tournament and look at this what am i doing wrong i dnt understand my cards never hit and pockets pop up within 5 hands of eachother and not 1 of them win instead the guy with q10 hits a straight
 
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Thu Apr 11, 2013, 02:56 PM
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mike2198's Avatar
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wasnt calling this because i felt i was beat with everyone going all in but look at this when i had QQ the villain had Q10 but then when i get JJ villain gets J10 but theres something interesting they both win with a straight hmmmm just my luck that
 
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Thu Apr 11, 2013, 03:16 PM
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ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
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Hi Mike, I'm not going to analyse these hands. I'll leave them to the tournament specialists.
I'll point, however, that you should post one hand per thread to prevent confusion, and when you post a tourney hand, please detail the type of tourney (freeroll/SnG/buy-in/structure etc) because different tourneys require different strategies.

The advice I want to give you here is to be patient. In a full ring game, you'll often only be playing about 15% of hands to begin with, and even when you get dealt a monster, that's no guarantee you'll win a big pot. Poker is fundamentally a game of stealing the blinds, with a steady profit coming from picking up a small pot here, a medium pot there, and a big pot only occasionally.

In the long run, in cashgames at least, it's common for winning players to win at a rate of 3-6 big blinds per 100 hands. A winrate of 5bb/100 is typical among regs at 2NL. I'll spell that out more directly. In 2NL games, a player should be happy if he makes a profit of 10 cents for each 100 hands he plays. Poker is not a get rich scheme. It's a game of patience, discipline, and a steady grind. There will no doubt be terrible sessions where you're completely card dead, or you keep making second-best hands and lose your stack to the nuts, and also amazing days where you go on a heater. In the long run, though, profit comes gradually. You can't force it.

Luck tends to play a bigger role in tournaments, because - depending on the number of entrants - you'll often only have 70-100 hands before the final table. If you have no luck in that small sample, it's hard to make a deep run.

If you want advice on how you played the hands above, please let the analysers know what kind of tournament you entered.


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Thu Apr 11, 2013, 04:14 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Hi mike!

I'm going to make a BIG assumption here and look at these as cash MTT hands (if they're from another format, especially a league game, then I'd go about them 100% differently). The format of the tourney can make a huge difference as to how a hand needs to be played. What's the most optimal play for one format may be the worst play for another format.

With QQ or any other hand that I want to raise with, I'm going to make a standard raise to 3BB+1BB for each limp (my standard for this blind level). With 2 limpers, I'll raise to 250 (5BB). I don't want to raise less than this, as I can be giving the opps the correct odds to try to outdraw me, which is something that I want to avoid whenever possible.

I then have a short-stacked opp shove and the others fold. I'm absolutely going to call here, as the opp should be looking to shove a wider range than normal due to their stack size. If the opp is playing a 30% range here, then I'm going to be a 72.6% favorite.... however, that DOES mean that I'm going to lose this hand more than 1 in every 4 times!
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With KK and under 10BB, I'm going to open-shove here. I don't want to make a standard open-raise for 2 reasons. First, by doing so, I can never fold as I'm pot-committed. Secondly, I don't want to give the opp two smaller bets to call with, as depending on how many opps call both bets, I could actually turn what should be a large +EV situaiton for me, into a +EV situation for the opps. That means that instead of me winning chips on average, the opp would expect to win chips on average, each and every time the hand is played.
When the opp shoves, I'm never folding here. Against a top 10% range for the opp (what I'd arbitrarily assign the opp here since no read was given), I'm a 73% favorite... which means that I'll once again lose this more than 1 in every 4 times. Against their actual hand, I'm a little worse off, as I'll only win it 69.8%.. which means I'll lose a bit more than 3 of every 10 times I play this hand.
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With JJ and basically 4 all-ins in front of me, while I'd like to fold, there are way, way too many chips in the pot to muck here. I only have 3BB, I need chips desperately and have a marginal made hand. While JJ plays much better against less opps, the +EV play here is definitely to call and here's why...

I need to call 655 into a pot that I can win 3225 from (20.3%).

I now go to pokerstove to see how much equity my hand has. In order to get an accurate assessment, I will need reads on the other opps as to whether they are playing loose or tight. The opp with 5 chips left, I'll assign ATC to, as they should never fold. The others, I'll assign a 30% range, 20% range and 10% range to... they could be wider or tighter, but no information was provided.
From this calculation, my hand has 29.4% equity.

Since my hand equity, 29.4%, is higher than my pot equity, 20.3%, I expect to gain 9.1% from the pot on average everytime that I call here. This is a gain on average of 294 chips each and every time.

From this, the math proves that the optimal play here is to call. Yes, I'll lose a bit over 7 of every 10 times, but on average, I will gain chips.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Thu Apr 11, 2013, 04:41 PM
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mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Ok i actually ment to put it was a sng so my bad for not pointing that out, ive be looking at strategy's for tournaments and im not sure of how i should play different for each one but i think im sposed to play tight until i get above 10bbs then loosen up and bully small stacks and shove from the button depending on the players that are on the blinds and whose folded, yh about the plus a bet for each limper sometimes im forgetting to do this but here i was abit unsure because if i 5 betted i would be pot committed so i dunno what to do there

anyway could you tell me when i should be shoving and in what tournys? also at the start of a tourny what hands should i be 3 betting when the majority are shoves i guess 3 betting is fine when you build your stack but at the start its pretty easy to having to get all in, its like in a cash game i might re raise 3x to a raiser do i do that in a tourny also with AK or QQ AA KK or do i shove im not to
 
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Thu Apr 11, 2013, 04:56 PM
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mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
ok arty sorry about all the hands again i didnt want to make loads of posts ive already done a load lol anyway im as patient as they come for waiting for the cards i just cant get any monster hands its like i turned that 2 dollars into 31 in two days and i bounced from 25 and 30 then 18 and 25 and now im stuck on 18 dollars for ages whats happening is i play really tight aggressive make 30c here and there on TPTK then and up losing that 30c on waiting for hands to the blinds and the odd 3bet il lose 6c with AK which is fair enough but then its like why bother playing poker i mean i like playing because its an enjoyable game to play but i wanna make an extra bit of money on the side lol

I know what my leak is anyway i play good then i watch a fish batter a couple of regs who then rage and leave the table and then i get a semi decent hand and get all in and they always river something its like there indestructible but when i first started out on here i was battering them i dnt know what to do i was hoping to build a steady bankroll and up the table stakes but with the way my luck is thats never going to happen
 
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Thu Apr 11, 2013, 05:33 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike2198 View Post
Ok i actually ment to put it was a sng so my bad for not pointing that out, ive be looking at strategy's for tournaments and im not sure of how i should play different for each one but i think im sposed to play tight until i get above 10bbs then loosen up and bully small stacks and shove from the button depending on the players that are on the blinds and whose folded, yh about the plus a bet for each limper sometimes im forgetting to do this but here i was abit unsure because if i 5 betted i would be pot committed so i dunno what to do there

anyway could you tell me when i should be shoving and in what tournys? also at the start of a tourny what hands should i be 3 betting when the majority are shoves i guess 3 betting is fine when you build your stack but at the start its pretty easy to having to get all in, its like in a cash game i might re raise 3x to a raiser do i do that in a tourny also with AK or QQ AA KK or do i shove im not to
Hi Mike!

What I want to do in a tourney is to play tight until I get below 10BB, then I need to loosen up, as the blinds are a larger % of my stack. Looking to bully someone is NOT the way to go thru a tourney and get a deep run in one. The only way you will get a deep run that way is to get extremely lucky, which will not happen the overwhelming majority of the time.

In the QQ hand, a standard raise will NOT pot-commit me. I'm only pot committed when I have 1/3 of my remaining stack going into the pot. I have 1250 in front of me and need to raise 200 more chips, which is not over 1/3 of my stack.

When playing tourneys, I do NOT want to shove unless I'm pot committed by my bet or call. If I shove when I'm not, then I'm going to do what is called 'value owning myself', which means that I'll fold out all worse hands and only get called by better hands... the opposite of what I want to have happen.

Tourneys are games of extreme patience and knowing how to take advantage of +EV situations, ones where I expect to gain chips on average. This is why to play tourneys correctly and according to good bankroll management, I need to have 100 buy-ins in my bankroll before playing that type of tourney.

I always want to be making standard raises and standard post-flop bets (which will be a % of the pot, normally between 50% and 100% based on the number of opps and the board texture).

Also, a 5 bet is not raising to 5BB.. a five bet would be a bet, raise, 3-bet (re-raise), 4-bet (re-raise), then 5-bet (re-raise).

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Thu Apr 11, 2013, 06:38 PM
(#8)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
Quote:
Originally Posted by mike2198 View Post
its like i turned that 2 dollars into 31 in two days and i bounced from 25 and 30 then 18 and 25 and now im stuck on 18 dollars for ages whats happening is i play really tight aggressive make 30c here and there on TPTK then and up losing that 30c on waiting for hands to the blinds and the odd 3bet il lose 6c with AK which is fair enough but then its like why bother playing poker i mean i like playing because its an enjoyable game to play but i wanna make an extra bit of money on the side lol
If you look at the graph on my blog, you'll see that I made $50 in my first 15,000 hands of 2NL, and then I broke even for the next 20,000 hands. I was playing for months and didn't make a single penny. You simply can't expect to take up the game and immediately make a fortune from it. It requires a lot of patience, and the ability to cope with the inevitable downswings that come along due to the natural variance that is inherent in a game that is partly based on random luck.
You should consider subscribing to the blog, because I'll be giving you lots of advice on how to improve your play and build a bankroll without having huge downswings.

Cheers and good luck!
Arty


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Thu Apr 11, 2013, 07:47 PM
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mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
If you look at the graph on my blog, you'll see that I made $50 in my first 15,000 hands of 2NL, and then I broke even for the next 20,000 hands. I was playing for months and didn't make a single penny. You simply can't expect to take up the game and immediately make a fortune from it. It requires a lot of patience, and the ability to cope with the inevitable downswings that come along due to the natural variance that is inherent in a game that is partly based on random luck.
You should consider subscribing to the blog, because I'll be giving you lots of advice on how to improve your play and build a bankroll without having huge downswings.

Cheers and good luck!
Arty
really,50 dollars earnt then you broke even thats along time im pretty good at not losing to much money which is a good thing

i made 60 dollars on full tilt and lost it in 2 days because i had no idea about bankroll management i was an alright player but didnt no half as much as i know now, ive just had an amazing run made 6 dollars on 1c 2c in a couple hundred hands i dnt wanna turn it off now trouble is i got work in morning oh well il make he most of it for another half hour and get off lol i just signed up to your blog by the way
 
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Thu Apr 11, 2013, 08:23 PM
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joker41673's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,850
For what's it worth, these hands are all in pre flop. Not much you can do in that situation and you give your opponents no choices to make. With that said I would guess that it is your image that you need to work on. A tight player will always be exploitable.

 
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Thu Apr 11, 2013, 10:40 PM
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RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
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I just read this amazing quote a minute ago:

Quote:
You cannot teach a man anything; you can only help him find it within himself..........Galileo Galilei
So my question to you Mike is this:

Do you want us to help you improve your game, or do you just want us to tell you what you want to hear?
 
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Fri Apr 12, 2013, 09:21 AM
(#12)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Quote:

Do you want us to help you improve your game, or do you just want us to tell you what you want to hear?



improve my game obviously if it means being mean i dont care tell us how it is the way you see it, i dont need to hear it in a nice sort of way just want to learn how to play tournaments properly, oh and who ever said on my table image yeah i would come across as tight aggressive thats why i don't like checking the flop because they will try and bet me out of the pot so il be the 1st to be making bets even with QQ on a ace high board il then check the turn and if they raise il fold and if they call and something lower than a queen comes out on the river il bet again and normally they fold

If anyones got a link to a strategy or preferably a vid of someone playing a tournament game could you post it up please, ive watched and read tonnes of stuff now but im unsure of when to shove and when not to and maybe just 3 bet its a little confusing

if i join a tourny and don't get a decent hand for say 10 hands should i shove or 3bet just wondering because like we seen in those top pair hands people was trying to shove me off my hand so should i just shove them in until i got some stats that show im playing hands because my vp is normally between 15 and 18 but i do join some tables and have about 7 for half hour or even 0 for loads of hands so if that was the case should i shove all top pairs and only 3bet AA until people are getting stats on me
 
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Fri Apr 12, 2013, 09:29 AM
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ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
Quote:
Originally Posted by mike2198 View Post
If anyones got a link to a strategy or preferably a vid of someone playing a tournament game could you post it up please, ive watched and read tonnes of stuff now but im unsure of when to shove and when not to and maybe just 3 bet its a little confusing
A great series for beginners is the 5-parter put together by Spacegravy. He goes through the different phases of a SnG, but you'll learn useful stuff for all tournaments. http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...-Series-Part-1


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Fri Apr 12, 2013, 09:54 AM
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mike2198's Avatar
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cheers arty
 
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Fri Apr 12, 2013, 09:59 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike2198 View Post

if i join a tourny and don't get a decent hand for say 10 hands should i shove or 3bet just wondering because like we seen in those top pair hands people was trying to shove me off my hand so should i just shove them in until i got some stats that show im playing hands because my vp is normally between 15 and 18 but i do join some tables and have about 7 for half hour or even 0 for loads of hands so if that was the case should i shove all top pairs and only 3bet AA until people are getting stats on me
Hi Mike!

Sometimes in tourneys, you'll go HOURS without playing hands and yes, I said HOURS! I will NEVER play a hand, just because I haven't played in so many hands... in a tournament, that's how to throw a stack away in a hurry.

From your earlier comments and hands, you're NOT in the TAG category. Based on these, honestly, if I had to label you, I'd label you as a maniac. Until you totally forget about wanting to shove all the time and play hands just to play hands, you'll always be looked at as a loose cannon type of player by the others at the table.

Patience is a HUGE key in playing poker and it's something that all winning players need to have or learn.

John (JWK24)


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Fri Apr 12, 2013, 10:17 AM
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RockerguyAA's Avatar
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Sorry if I missed this somewhere, but have you done the Poker School Online STT and MTT courses? They are great and will help you get a good starting strategy going for tournaments.
 
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Fri Apr 12, 2013, 02:09 PM
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mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
From your earlier comments and hands, you're NOT in the TAG category. Based on these, honestly, if I had to label you, I'd label you as a maniac.

hehehe i would rather never shove its just i been watching tournament lessens and everyones like saying you should be shoving if your under 10 bbs i just watched all of space savys vids on it he says
the same, so from my understanding i need to play tight like i do on cash games and if i drop under 10bb im sposed to shove with certain hands

see what lead me to want a new strategy was i was playing so tight and the hands i was raising pre flop that missed was just eating away at my chips, when ive had a good run before and got to 20k or so chips i tryed this big stack strategy and failed miserably but that was ages ago and i didnt even think about reading hands then

i reckon if i could get a stack that big now id have a chance at getting in the money but i just wanted to learn this push or fold strategy for when my cards arnt hitting and im low on chips, what im saying is i dnt want to shove my cards all in every time id prefer not to i think its an alternative thats there to keep you in the game when you drop below 10bb

Anyway on about big stack strategy how do you go about playing later on in the tournament im guessing that means play good pre flop still but when you miss and it gets checked back to maybe risk more of your chips to steal the pot where as before i was thinking of it as turning into a big fish and playing all Ax hands im thinking i should loosen up abit and maybe play some more Ax hands and stealing blinds etc but not go over the top and playing all sorts of junk

btw you said im a maniac for the way i played those hands i had kk qq and 3 betted them both i thought that was standard

On the QQ hand i raised and then he all in me i wernt folding it was obvious he was trying to make me fold i was wacthing him play previous hands and he had a small stack i put him on a junk hand straight away and to be fair 10 Q are junk i wouldn't shove that so im geussing i wernt unlucky when all he could win with was a straight or trips 10s surely my odds were massive to his

As for the KK in my book i was pot commited i had a 3rd of my stack and i went gonna get anywwhere with 600 chips left if i folded and JJ well i folded that and was told i should of played so surely i cant be a maniac i know one thing i would much prefer not to be all in with just 1 pairs but i believe i had no choice here

Last edited by mike2198; Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 02:23 PM..
 
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Fri Apr 12, 2013, 02:23 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Originally Posted by mike2198 View Post
Anyway on about big stack strategy how do you go about playing later on in the tournament im guessing that means play good pre flop still but when you miss and it gets checked back to maybe risk more of your chips to steal the pot where as before i was thinking of it as turning into a big fish and playing all Ax hands im thinking i should loosen up abit and maybe play some more Ax hands and stealing blinds etc but not go over the top and playing all sorts of junk
I'm playing it just like earlier. I want to play hands in position, if I can, and when out of position, to only play more premium hands. The only places I may play Ax are from the button/cutoff when it's checked to me and I'll standard raise all of them.

Playing too many hands leaks off chips and that is something I absolutely want to avoid, especially when I'm out of position.

I'm never "risking more of my chips to steal". That's spewing chips and something I always want to avoid.

John (JWK24)


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Fri Apr 12, 2013, 02:28 PM
(#19)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
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Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
I'm playing it just like earlier. I want to play hands in position, if I can, and when out of position, to only play more premium hands. The only places I may play Ax are from the button/cutoff when it's checked to me and I'll standard raise all of them.

Playing too many hands leaks off chips and that is something I absolutely want to avoid, especially when I'm out of position.

I'm never "risking more of my chips to steal". That's spewing chips and something I always want to avoid.

John (JWK24)
ok that make sense to me thats the sort of play i would prefer myself and whats your take on shoving from postion if your under 10bb
 
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Fri Apr 12, 2013, 02:46 PM
(#20)
JWK24's Avatar
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Originally Posted by mike2198 View Post
ok that make sense to me thats the sort of play i would prefer myself and whats your take on shoving from postion if your under 10bb
It depends on the opps yet to act, where I'm at in the tournament, what type of tournament I'm in, and whether I have the equity to do so or not.

John (JWK24)


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