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$3.50 fifty50, bubble...is this a shove?

$3.50 fifty50, bubble...is this a shove? - Fri Apr 12, 2013, 05:22 AM
Espada_Nu.4's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 148

im 1st in chips in the SB. in the BB is a shortie
he is so short that i think he could call light
if he calls and i win, the tour ends and i will have a big cash
if he calls and i lose, i will be 3rd in chips
do i shove here or not?
Fri Apr 12, 2013, 06:24 AM
adohole's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 1,083
this is a close one depends on how he has bene playing, if he has been playing really tight im shoving otherwise its a fold he just cant fold here if he is playing normaly

Triple Bracelet Winner

Fri Apr 12, 2013, 10:40 AM
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
Hi Espada_Nu.4!

While I'm absolutely going to look to shove a wide range here, I'm going to fold and let the opp have this one and here's why.

If I shove and the opp calls (which they should do VERY wide), I will have 1215 chips invested into a pot that will be 2730 (44.5%).

I then to go pokerstove to see how much equity I have and even against a 50% range (really wide), I only have 35% equity. Even if they played ATC here, I'm still just under 44.5%. That means that even if they play every single hand, it's a chip -EV play for me and it will be an even larger negative tournament EV!

Another problem with calling is that if I lose, I drop from the bigstack to 3rd in chips, but I'm also going to be dangerously close to even dropping to 6th and being out of the $$.

Another big problem here is that each chip is worth exta money at the end of the tourney. If I call here, I can easily lose 2 out of every 3 times (or even more) and each time I lose, it costs me over $1 in real money... which is HUGE considering that it's only a $3.50 tournament.

While I'd like to take the opp out and end the tourney, I need to make sure that I don't leak off my chips since they do have cash value when the tourney ends, so I'm mucking.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


6 Time Bracelet Winner


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