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FT Event 10 facing two short stacked AIs

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FT Event 10 facing two short stacked AIs - Mon Apr 15, 2013, 02:19 AM
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Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
This hand comes from the final table of Spring Fever Event 10 (PlayMoney). This was a bounty tourney. I haven't played many tourneys lately and am a bit rusty. Should I be calling or folding in this spot?



I would have snap called a shove with ATC from any single player so short stacked. Here when the sb moves all in as well, I became unsure if calling or folding was the best line.

The sb rates to have a better hand than me. Most likely one if not both have either a pair crushing my 3, possibly a K with a better kicker or an Ax. I felt I could afford to lose 20% of my stack taking a shot to knockout two players. Yet, I didn't want to lose the hand and allow the winner to triple up since that would make them a threat.

Thanks!

Roland GTX
 
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Mon Apr 15, 2013, 11:29 AM
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ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
I'm really interested to see the discussion on this one, partly because I was on the same table. My initial thought was "You can't call with junk like K3, because you're definitely getting it in bad and will need a miracle to beat both players", but maybe there are solid reasons for making the call.


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Mon Apr 15, 2013, 11:46 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
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Hi Roland GTX!

My initial instinct is to muck here, but let's see what the math says....

To make the call here is going to be putting 15068 into a pot that will be 50622 (29.8%).

Now I need to go to pokerstove to see if my K3o has this much equity. One has less than 5BB and the other slightly more and is calling the shove, basically for their tourney life too, so they should have the tighter range of the two and also, they should want to like their hand in a 3-way pot here. Due to this, I'm going to give the button a 35% range and I'm going to tighten the SB's range to 9.8% (broadway aces, 88+, etc).

With these ranges, I get 20% equity for my K3 here. Since the pot equity is 10% higher than what my hand is worth, I'm mucking and looking for a better situation. I don't want to triple someone and make them dangerous in the tourney in a spot where I've basically got a -10%EV situation.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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