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5NL river decision with overpair on draw heavy board

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5NL river decision with overpair on draw heavy board - Mon Apr 15, 2013, 05:40 AM
(#1)
PokerIggy's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 214


No stats on villain. But he's sitting almost 180bb deep so he could be a reg.

PF is pretty standard and villain calls. So I'll include PP into his range. Then the flop is quite coordinated. SD + FD posibilities and villain could definitely hit his set. Villain then donk bets small (which is pretty weak I think). So I figured that he probably just wants to see a cheap flop. Or he could have hit a set and I could expect a reraise. So I raised his bet (maybe a bit too small because of the drawy board) and villain called. So he probably did not hit his set. Maybe on a draw? Or somethink like 89s+. But if he hit a straight, then he would probably reraise me I guess.

Then again on the turn he donk bets small. So is he trying to induce me to raise or is he again just trying to get cheap to showdown? So again I put in a raise and villain called again. What could he have??

Then on the river the board paired and villain checked. Ok, so now (after I reviewed the hand) I think he probably didn't made his hand as he would miss a lot of value if I would check behind. So I would put him probably on just an overpair of ATs or so. So I should probably have raised on the river.

However there are som many draws on the table that I just didn't bet. So the question is. Do we bet on the river as his actions look weak or do we just want to go to showdown on such draw heavy boards and prevent us from a dificult dicision when villain 3bets our raise.
 
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Mon Apr 15, 2013, 11:16 AM
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Mon Apr 15, 2013, 03:36 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,505
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Hi Iggy,

I like the raise on the flop, as the small lead is often indicative of a 1 pair hand or draw, and we're currently beating all that, so it's a nice value raise imo.

I actually think it's ok to fold to the turn bet. Pretty much all reasonable draws got there, the 9 and the hearts. And if we are behind to any of those hands, we are drawing dead save for a possible tie vs. a 9 with a river 9 hitting. I don't like raising much here as if we don't believe him, we can just call .20c and possibly call another river bet and show down for the same price as our raise. By raising we open ourselves up to further action. I mean if he reraises the turn this is a super easy fold imo, but what if he calls your raise then leads for like .50c on a blank river? Now what?

As played I think checking down the river is fine, we are going to get shown a 9 or small flush quite a bit here I think, and not sure we can get called by worse hands anyway so there's not much value in betting.

Also, never make the assumption someone is a reg because they have more than 100bb's in front of them. Saturday night I stacked a guy with 180bb's in front of him (I had about 200bbs), he was a pretty big fish who had just gotten lucky on a few hands. After seeing this showdown it's clear our villain is not a winning player or regular (he'd lose too fast to be reg for long lol), so now we can make a note and have reads for the future.


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Tue Apr 16, 2013, 10:07 AM
(#4)
PokerIggy's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 214
I'm actually not say he's a reg, but I keep in mind that he could be a reg while playing.

After reviewing the hand I think just calling on the turn would be a better play as I indeed did not believe him. Also most of the times if he made his monster draw, then he would probably bet the river big (as most river actions reflect our true hand strength) and I could let the hand go more cheaply.
 
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Tue Apr 16, 2013, 10:29 AM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,505
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerIggy View Post
After reviewing the hand I think just calling on the turn would be a better play as I indeed did not believe him. Also most of the times if he made his monster draw, then he would probably bet the river big (as most river actions reflect our true hand strength) and I could let the hand go more cheaply.
Agreed!


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