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What play do YOU make here? the flop pt. 1

View Poll Results: What do YOU do with 8h8s on this flop?
1) CHECK, I hate that K oop 2 13.33%
2) BET SMALL, min bet ($5) to 1/3rd pot ($25) 1 6.67%
3) BET MEDIUM, 1/3rd pot ($26) to 60% pot ($45) 7 46.67%
4) BET LARGE, 60% pot ($46) to full pot ($76) 4 26.67%
5) POT OVERBET, full pot ($77) to 150% pot ($115) 0 0%
6) BIG OVERBET, $150 pot ($116) to All In 0 0%
7) Blank 1 6.67%
Voters: 15. You may not vote on this poll

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What play do YOU make here? the flop pt. 1 - Tue Apr 16, 2013, 01:32 AM
(#1)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
...and the FLOP!




(note: the above pot reflects payment of 10% rake to a max of $5, plus the $1 bad beat jackpot drop)

You look down and watch the flop come Kc 7c 6d

Seat 3 licks his lips, pushes his sun glasses higher on his nose, and taps the table twice. After that he pulls his hoodie tightly around his face, and rests his chin in his cupped hands, with his elbows on the rail.

Action is on YOU!

You hold 8h 8s.

What do you do?

1) CHECK, I hate that K oop
2) BET SMALL, min bet ($5) to 1/3rd pot ($25)
3) BET MEDIUM, 1/3rd pot ($26) to 60% pot ($45)
4) BET LARGE, 60% pot ($46) to full pot ($76)
5) POT OVERBET, full pot ($77) to 150% pot ($115)
6) BIG OVERBET, $150 pot ($116) to All In
7) Blank

(Again, please don't choose blank. That is so I can track votes without effecting the outcome.)

Please vote above, and after voting, put your reasons up for discussion!

The next installment will come in about 2 days.

Thanks!

-JDean

Last edited by JDean; Tue Apr 16, 2013 at 11:29 AM..
 
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Tue Apr 16, 2013, 12:38 PM
(#2)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
The flop is great for a cbet especially that we are the PFR from UTG; So if I were to bet I would bet somewhere between 50 to 60%, just enough to be credible. A bigger raise will not have a different effect I think since this is a pretty dry flop with K high and betting into 3 players would look super strong anyway.

On the other hand, I'm throwing 38-45$ into 3 opponents hoping no one has a K, a set, or some kind of FD. If we are called, we would have built a pot with a marginal holding OOP. How will we continue on later streets?

So I think I'll just be a nit and check this one and get to see the action after me for free.
Maybe even look to call a bet from Seat 10 if Seat 3 folds and look to either lead turn or c/f.
 
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Tue Apr 16, 2013, 12:41 PM
(#3)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
... By the way, If I do cbet this flop I'm looking to triple barrel bluff if no clubs, no Q or J come and I'm not raised on any street.
 
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Tue Apr 16, 2013, 12:43 PM
(#4)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
On this sort of flop if we bet, while we are betting for thin value we mainly want to take it down when everyone misses. If we do bet then I like option 3, betting around $30.

I don't like option 5 or 6 as we value own ourselves, push out worse hands and risk too much money. I also dislike options 2 and 4. I don't like option 2, it's so weak and even though we can get called by worse hands so will a bigger bet while charging those pesky draws. However I don't like betting too big as in option 4, because I don't think players will differentiate between a $46 bet, and one smaller such as $30.

So if we bet $30 what will likely happen...

If seat 6 has hit a K she will raise regardless of whether it's a $30 bet or $46 bet, If she has missed then she will likely fold unless she has a draw such as ATcc+; I don't think 89 is in her pre flop calling range. Given her range going to the flop I think there is a high probability that she will fold.

Similarly seat 10 will only raise us with very strong hands such as sets, 2 pair and perhaps AK/KQ. He has shown he will call with draws so if he elects to call his range contains weak pairs, weak TP's and draws. I think that although he is likely to gamble as he is leaving soon he won't call unless he's hit so there is a high probability he will fold

Seat 3 may be exhibiting a physical tell but without a read of what exacty this means I choose to ignore it. If we bet and he raises then it's an easy fold but he has shown a propensity to play fit or fold while also exhibiting classic loose passive tendincies so we can expect him to fold misses and call with weak made hands.

While checking and giving up is a neutral EV play I think taking a stab at the pot now will be profitable. The fact that the pot is multiway and seat 3 is left to act after the other players if we bet means seats 6 and 10 are less likely to float. If we bet $30 we show an immediate if all players fold 30% of the time, not only do I think that this is a likely outcome I think that the 2 players that are most likely to call are seats 3 and 10 if they do call we will often be able to check it down to showdown and sometimes win unimproved against missed draws and weak pairs.


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Tue Apr 16, 2013, 01:30 PM
(#5)
Low Rated's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 114
Wrote a wall of text. Page crashes. Enough said, here we are.

This one is tricky. I opt to bet medium sized, about half pot to 60%. We are likely to have the best hand so we should try to get some value. A better hand isnt folding and the only worse hand that will call is a draw, so we should charge draws and try to get some good value.

A medium sized bet is enough since we only need folds 33% of the time to show profit. With our TAG image it should be easy to get air out of the pot as our bets will be respected on this board texture. We can't check because we will either have to see a turn card 4 way or get pushed off what may be the best hand in addition to allowing draws a free turn card. This also goes for betting small.

Based on our reads:

Seat 3 seems to want to play his hand but due to his passive play on the flop I think we can count Kx [or made hands] out of his range. He is likely on a flush draw. He is very tight facing EP raises so he had to have really liked his hand if he's willing to play from the SB 4 way. Axcc/QJcc/JTcc are playable hands pre flop in this situation. If we are check raised we can let go.

Seat 6 is pretty weak so I will be expecting a fold unless she has a strong made hand. She folded similar textures in past situations, no reason to think she will step out of line here.

Seat 10 is loose but dosent have the aggression to go with it and so I will be expecting a fold. If we get raised we can let go comfortably.

As the hand continues I plan to bet a blank turn card and check behind on the river in a HU situation. If somehow we remain multiway we can fold to a bet on the turn or river.
 
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Tue Apr 16, 2013, 02:10 PM
(#6)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
I folded pre-flop, because I knew this flop was coming and I didn't want to have 3 callers.
I'll take a half pot stab on the flop, because I think villains will put us on AK quite often. I'm probabbly only barrelling the turn (if we're heads up) if we make a set, or a non-spade ace hits the board.


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Tue Apr 16, 2013, 04:04 PM
(#7)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
I usually respond to these threads of JDs but it seemed like too much hard work and I am not a fan of hard work as I have too much of it but I thought I would actually go through the whole lot and try and come up with an answer. I was tempted to go for fold pre like Arty but probably would have limped, as a limp UTG with someone who has played only two hands could garner a lot of respect.

The temptation here is to make a cbet but the lack of action from seat 3 has me a little bit worried; he is very passive on the flop even with big hands and has the usual attribute of a fish of slow playing them and then getting aggressive on the turn or river and I would certainly note the physical tell.

Seat 6 seems fit or fold and will certainly reraise any raise if she has a part of this board.

Seat 10 will call if he has a flush draw, a straight draw, a pocket pair or even a pair of 6s or 5s. he is a total calling station and would be our preferred heads up opponent.

The problem is that if we c bet here we could get three callers and 8s does not play well multiway and unless we hit another 8 the backdoor straight is our only way of getting a better hand than we have currently.

I am tempted to check rather than bloat this pot, but if I did c bet i would go for option 3.

Cheers,

TC
 
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Tue Apr 16, 2013, 04:36 PM
(#8)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
(Super-Moderator)
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I'm going to bet 3/4 pot. If seats 3 or 6 re-raise me, I'm outta here.

Since I raised pre, I'm going to make a c-bet to rep the K. Unless my hand improves or I'm only against seat 10, I'm not putting another chip into the pot afterwards.


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Tue Apr 16, 2013, 05:17 PM
(#9)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
I'm betting $55 here. Representing AK which is squarely in our utg range. I want to give any chasers poor odds. Plus, I don't want to encourage getting a string of callers on the flop by betting small.

The best outcome would be V6 and V3 folding while getting another street of value from V10. This was our plan preflop. I intend to follow through. If we aren't c-betting this flop, then we shouldn't have been raising utg in the first place.

Getting V6 to call preflop was unexpected and having three opponents decreases our c-bet success rate, but it still seems like the best line. Bet folding will be less costly if we have to fold than hoping to check-raise.

Like John said if V3 or V6 plays back with a raise, I'll fold. (I dont know yet what lip licking indicates. Did he get a mouth watering hand or is he just hungry)

Roland GTX
 
Old
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Tue Apr 16, 2013, 06:00 PM
(#10)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
I don't think most of these players, chasers or not, have any inclination of poor odds, so betting larger will not have any impact on their actions unless we shove

Player 6 will call or raise with a part of this board (if she has A but scratch with her other card she is likely to fold), player 10 will come along for the ride with a reasonably wide range (he is a calling station) and I would suggest that player 3 has hit a big part of this board in his eyes (maybe something like 45).

If we bet here and get action (unlikely from seat 10) we could be folding the best hand as it stands. Our image is going to matter little to these three players so I am still inclined to check or a standard bet. A bigger bet can just as well mean that we want this hand to end as it does that we have hit with AK.

Cheers,

TC
 
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Wed Apr 17, 2013, 12:59 AM
(#11)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
I accidentally grabbed too few chips and raised to $20 instead of $30. The bad news is this led to 3 callers, but the good news is it was the 3 specifically that were the target of my preflop play.

As far as boards not containing an 8 go, this is a pretty nice board texture. Although c-betting into 3 players with air is often a reckless abandonment of our money, I feel there are compelling factors indicating a c-bet regardless:

-I don't have air, we actually have a made hand that can get called by some worse holdings, specifically draws and worse pairs like A7/A6/97s etc.

-All 3 opponents were identified as loose preflop callers who play fairly fit or fold post flop, increasing the chances of success if no one has us beat right now.

-Seat 6 is a candidate to possibly fold a slightly better hand like 99-JJ with an overcard on board.

-I don't want to offer a free card to hands like AT or QJ, as if these characters make a pair on the turn, we won't shake them after checking this flop.

Since bad live players generally have no idea how much money is in the pot, I'm not concerned with making a large bet. A standard follow up wager in this type of situation is $25-$35, and since I think the size makes little difference to these 3 players, I'll make the smaller bet, giving myself a better price on the play and losing less when one of them has flopped a king or better.


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Wed Apr 17, 2013, 01:00 AM
(#12)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by topthecat View Post
I don't think most of these players, chasers or not, have any inclination of poor odds, so betting larger will not have any impact on their actions
^^True story vs. bad live players.


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Wed Apr 17, 2013, 02:21 AM
(#13)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Again, very nice posts guys!

Right now the voting is running about 2 to 1 in favor of a medium sized bet.

It sounds like everyone favoring that agrees the board texture is about as good as we might expect without flopping a set, and the opponents here are fit or fold types who might call on less often enough to make a c bet a solid move. It further seems that everyone who favors this size bet chooses it mainly because they feel given the info we have, the bet size will not really register (either they have enough to call/raise, or they don't), so there is little reason to put more into the pot in case we are crushed by a K.

Those favoring the larger, approximately 2/3rds pot bet, all seem to think much like those favoring the smaller bet, but are betting more to prevent a cascade of calls resulting in a LP or SB caller getting the correct odds to stay on an 8 or 9 out draw. In short, these proponents of this bet size prefer to limit the number of opp's continuing past the flop.

There is also a single vote for a flop check, with the reasoning being that there is a chance to get to the turn for free based on info we have. Also, that option seems to favor the "no set/no bet" line, largely because a c bet might have little chance of taking the pot, and if it doesn't there will be a lot of un-surety in future actions.

Folks, if I am wrong in distilling what any of you have stated as your reasons for choosing your action, please correct me!

So there you are!

There will be about 12 to 16 more hours (depending upon my day runs tomorrow and when I get home :-) ) until we tally up the votes, and move on. If anyone wants to vote, or add a post, please get 'em in quick!

Thanks for the great responses folks, this is really a nice discussion I think!

-JDean
 
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Wed Apr 17, 2013, 02:42 AM
(#14)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
@topthecat, You said:
Quote:
Originally Posted by topthecat View Post
I don't think most of these players, chasers or not, have any inclination of poor odds, so betting larger will not have any impact on their actions unless we shove
And TheLangolier agreed with you. I haven't played much live. So, I'll take your word for this point. Thanks for the tip! (Good to see you joining the thread btw )

Yet, TheLangolier also said he accidentally grabbed too few chips "The bad news is this led to 3 callers..." I agree that weak players aren't doing the math at the table. But I would have thought that they do mentally notice that a bet is "small" or "big". With the result being that a small bet is easier to call. This seems to be what Dave was implying.

My goal with betting $55 is to isolate V10 by betting "big". As I said, I am rather worried that a "small" bet will encourage getting a string of callers, which from my point of view is very dangerous. We are inflating the pot without improving our situation making for a precarious spot.

Dave always tells me to ask myself why I am betting (preferably before I actually bet) I want to thin the field, hopefully isolating V10. If I win the pot now, that is a good result. If I get raised, I can still let my hand go. If I manage to isolate V10, then I will be barrelling most turn cards. Note, if an 8 comes on the turn, this may improve straight and flush draws. I'll have to be careful not to spew my stack with a set vs a flush or straight if this happens. I actually wouldn't mind seeing seeing another K...

Great thread, I'm learning!

Roland GTX
 
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Wed Apr 17, 2013, 02:45 AM
(#15)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
I keep forgetting to uncheck the evaluation box, sorry!
Greg
 
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Wed Apr 17, 2013, 08:58 AM
(#16)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roland GTX View Post
@topthecat, You said:


And TheLangolier agreed with you. I haven't played much live. So, I'll take your word for this point. Thanks for the tip! (Good to see you joining the thread btw )

Yet, TheLangolier also said he accidentally grabbed too few chips "The bad news is this led to 3 callers..." I agree that weak players aren't doing the math at the table. But I would have thought that they do mentally notice that a bet is "small" or "big". With the result being that a small bet is easier to call. This seems to be what Dave was implying.
The way I'd see it Roland is that in live play you do not have the pretty little display number next to the pot. Bad players tend to lose track of the action, and also seem to be too "lazy" to back track in their minds (math is HARD!) to try to recreate how much went into the pot.

Afterall, why SHOULD they? What really matters is what my HAND is, right?

They often do not realize that they can simply ask the dealer to spread the pot so they can count it themselves if they have lost track...

Thankfully they miss this!
 
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Wed Apr 17, 2013, 09:22 AM
(#17)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Thanks JDean!

I usually play live in strange East European card rooms where I don't understand a word of what anyone is saying (including the dealer...). Therefore, I have to keep track of the pot myself! All the free time not talking or being talked to does allow me to focus on the action though. You can pick up a ton of physical reads watching player's hands (how they handle their chips) when you are not distracted by a bunch of chatter!

Roland GTX
 
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Wed Apr 17, 2013, 10:15 AM
(#18)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
I have to say, I would probably tanked bit here. Don't like that our raise brought along 3 callers, I think here with 2nd pair, I want to make my normal size C-bet, and as JWK had said rep the AK. I think these players are loose enough that they can continue with a worse pair than we current have.

A big reraise will see me having to reevaluate.

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

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Old
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Wed Apr 17, 2013, 03:02 PM
(#19)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
OK! Time to proceed with the action...

It seems choice 3, bet medium (between 1/3rd and 60% pot) won in our voting. For simplicity's sake we will say we elect to bet $38 after Seat 3 checks to us.

The FLOP ACTION:



Seat 3 licks his lips, pushes his sun glasses higher on his nose, and taps the table twice. After that he pulls his hoodie tightly around his face, and rests his chin in his cupped hands, with his elbows on the rail.

Knowing that Seat 3's gestures appear somewhat rehearsed, we tend to discount their efficacy in our decision. The micro gesture of lip licking COULD possibly mean something (it tends to indicate a "lie", or intention to lie), but we also know that micro gestures especially tend to be very specific to individuals. With the thought that Seat 3 MIGHT be planning to bluff, OR that he might just be suffering from chapped lips, we continue to discount this tell's effectiveness.

We go into our personal decision making "routine", and having weighed all the factors we can, we decide to push forward $38.

(I was going to pretend our routine included voodoo chants, getting up and circling our chair 3 times, and a loud belch, but decided instead to let you all imagine your own practiced decision routine :-) )

Seat 6 looks at us menacingly for about 2 heart beats, then tosses her cards into the middle angrily. 'You never miss a flop, do you?", we hear her say.

Seat 10 does not hesitate at all, and announces, "I call".

Seat 3 does not look around at all, waits about 5 seconds, then pushes $38 forward in a very smooth motion. He returns to his statue pose with his hoodie tightly around his face, and chin resting in his hands.

Pot = $190

We will continue the hand action in another thread...

To make review easier, I will compile all the links for the previous hands in this thread:

The initial read and Pre Flop thread (for review): http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...-YOU-make-here

The Turn card thread for the current hand: http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...-The-turn-pt-1.

The Turn pt 2 is here: http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...856#post409856

Last edited by JDean; Fri Apr 19, 2013 at 01:32 PM..
 
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Thu Apr 18, 2013, 01:07 AM
(#20)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Marking evaluated


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