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What play do YOU make here? The turn pt 1.

View Poll Results: What do you do on the turn card: 8c?
1) CHECK 0 0%
2) BET SMALL, min bet ($5) to 1/4th pot ($48) 2 12.50%
3) BET MEDIUM, 1/4th pot ($49) to 60% pot ($114) 9 56.25%
4) BET LARGE, 60% pot ($115) to full pot ($190) 4 25.00%
5) POT OVERBET, full pot ($191) to 150% pot ($285) 0 0%
6) BIG OVERBET, 150% pot ($286) to All In 0 0%
7) Blank 1 6.25%
Voters: 16. You may not vote on this poll

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What play do YOU make here? The turn pt 1. - Wed Apr 17, 2013, 03:14 PM
(#1)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar


Pot = $190

The dealer taps the table twice, and lays out the turn card:

8c

Seat 3 remains in his statue pose, and gently taps the table twice.

We look left and see that Seat 10 is staring at us intently.

What do YOU do now?

1) CHECK
2) BET SMALL, min bet ($5) to 1/4th pot ($48)
3) BET MEDIUM, 1/4th pot ($49) to 60% pot ($114)
4) BET LARGE, 60% pot ($115) to full pot ($190)
5) POT OVERBET, full pot ($191) to 150% pot ($285)
6) BIG OVERBET, 150% pot ($286) to All In
7) Blank

The initial read and Pre Flop thread (for review): http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...-YOU-make-here
The Flop thread (for review): http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...the-flop-pt.-1

Turn part 2 thread here: http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...856#post409856

I can't wait for your thoughts here!!!

-JDean

Last edited by JDean; Fri Apr 19, 2013 at 01:31 PM..
 
Old
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Wed Apr 17, 2013, 04:38 PM
(#2)
0HighTimes0's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 840
Im going for 3) BET MEDIUM, 1/4th pot ($49) to 60% pot ($114) as we dont want, give away we have hit 3 kind & there could be KKK or straight were, could be running into! opps & i missed a flush

Last edited by 0HighTimes0; Wed Apr 17, 2013 at 04:53 PM..
 
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Wed Apr 17, 2013, 06:06 PM
(#3)
Low Rated's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 114
Oh how I hoped for another card to make this one easy, but easy isn't a friend of profitable poker . I say continue to bet with a medium bet.

Sure the flush made it and a straight is possible but Seat 3 is pretty much committed right now and the pot is really big. We are 3 way with 10 outs [20%] and we are looking at a good return on our money everytime we make the full house and are able to get our stacks in. If seat 10 calls our bet and seat 3 ships it we can call knowing we made a profitable move in the long run.

Let it ride .
 
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Wed Apr 17, 2013, 07:22 PM
(#4)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Although I was tempted to check and let player 10 make his move now I wonder if either of the players are listening to the story I wish to tell. So a big bet before the 4th club comes seems like it is in order.

I think both players will call, but I worry that if I check here player 10 will make it big over bet now we have slowed down and I'll be stuck not knowing what to do.

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Wed Apr 17, 2013, 08:32 PM
(#5)
Bill Curran's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,507
I say bet small. I believe that his intense stare means he is willing us to bet.

The size of his raise should indicate, roughly, his holding and we can re-evaluate.

If he only flats us, we can hope that the board pairs to give us the win.

I think the Hoodie will stay in, if Milton doesn't raise too big.

But then again I could be TOTALLY WRONG. No wonder I keep losing shirts.
 
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Wed Apr 17, 2013, 11:06 PM
(#6)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,286
I would bet $85 here (1/2 pot), I want to keep the betting lead if possible, but don't want to bloat the pot too much. There could be better hands out there, as the straight and the flush are both possible now. I could be seeing monsters under the bed though, depends what their reaction is to my bet.
 
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Thu Apr 18, 2013, 02:24 AM
(#7)
mimesis.is's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 74
We've got good showdown value but there's some hands out there that have us crushed pretty hard and with two callers it's hard to imagine that the turned club hasn't improved someone's hand. I'm thinking to either bet or check-call. I'm going to suggest betting just over half pot. That way any one club hands are still getting charged to see a river, but we're not too invested that we can't fold to massive amounts of action from player 10 or horrible river cards.

Betting $137 would be a nice way of stopping player 3 from reopening the pot, but it doesn't really matter if he does either way. Either way you're still going to be forced to put in $137 if he intends to check-raise, but this way you'll have some clue of player 10's intentions first.
 
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Thu Apr 18, 2013, 02:44 AM
(#8)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
I'm betting at least 75, but probably make it 90.

I ask myself, will I call a bet by another player if I check? Since I would, I prefer to bet myself.

V10 seems to call both with made hands and drawing hands. So I don't expect a raise from him.

V3 is either folding or committed to the pot it seems. I want to bet enough now so that even off he moves all in I am getting good odds to chase a 20% chance of a boat or quads. Moreover, his raise will be less than a full betsize. Therefore I will not be at risk of getting 3 bet by v10.

Even if we lose to v3, we still might win a decent sidepot from v10.

Roland GTX
 
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Thu Apr 18, 2013, 04:12 AM
(#9)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
I like betting here to get value from KXc or any naked club in their hand. But I also don't want to bloat the pot and reach commitment level by the river vs Seat 10. So the question is how much?

If we bet 167 we have already put in 1/3 of our chips in the pot; So I'll opt for something smaller say half pot 90to 100$ and fold to a raise from Seat 10 and surely call the remaining of Seat 3's stack.
By betting that amount we can also insure that if Seat 10 calls and Seat 3 raises and we call we get to see a river without giving Seat 10 the option to re-pop it since Seat 3's raise would be less than a min raise.

I hope the board pairs on the river else we're going to have to check to Seat 10 if he calls here and hope he checks behind.
 
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Thu Apr 18, 2013, 08:41 AM
(#10)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
I agree with Roland GTX, although I'd make a medium sized bet. I'm betting for value, and calling a raise looking to boat up if a villain indicates he has a made flush. It's also possible that a villain slowplayed a lower set, or has Kx with a club draw, so we might even be getting our money in as a big favourite.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Thu Apr 18, 2013, 09:48 AM
(#11)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Interesting responses!

I remember when we did these types of hand studies about a year ago, I was struck by how PASSIVE everyone seemed to be in their action votes. I truly expected to see at least SOME "check" votes here, yet after 1 day there is not a single one!

I am NOT implying anything by this comment, merely making an observation that more aggressive lines seem to be easier to decide upon now. Does anyone have any ideas why this might be?

Very, very interesting!



Please keeps the thoughts coming, and we will look to go to the next action in about 24 to 36 hours!

-JDean
 
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Thu Apr 18, 2013, 01:04 PM
(#12)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
I am NOT implying anything by this comment, merely making an observation that more aggressive lines seem to be easier to decide upon now. Does anyone have any ideas why this might be?
We've beened trained well by the PSO Team.
I think all the posters in this thread are winning players that have learned that passivity and slowplaying is not profitable. Dave's training sessions in particular have inspired me to look for situations where value can be gained, and to not give free cards to players that may be on a draw. I've also learned the power of the bet-fold play (defining our hand by betting makes it easier to fold when villain raises), although in this particular hand, I'm pretty sure I'm bet-calling.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Fri Apr 19, 2013, 01:37 AM
(#13)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
I c-bet larger than normally necessary and have received 2 callers, which is not exciting, but the turn card brings a reprieve for my woes by delivering a third 8.

I'm not sure what seat 3's statue routine means, but it no longer matters. He is short stacked and has well less than a pot sized bet remaining. If this routine meant he was strong on the flop, we have now pulled ahead of him, beating 66, 77, K7, K6, AK, Kx. If he made clubs, gh, we've got 10 outs to draw out on that. But we are easily committed to play for stacks against him now considering this range if he should choose to give action.

Seat 10 should be my focus, as we're still playing deep stacked with him. One thing that's nice about live poker is the ability to pick up physical tells. Good players often don't give up much information, but fish like seat 10 do. And I notice he is now engaged in a classic Caro tell of strong means weak... he is staring at us intently as if daring us to bet (acting strong), and indicator he does not like this turn card, so while flush draws were certainly part of his range on the flop (along with Kx) I am no longer concerned about him having a flush.

I am going to bet an amount I think seat 10 will call with modest kings like KJ, noting that KJ, KQ, and AK that don't contain a club are drawing completely dead. Since $100 flat tends to look more scary to live fish for some reason, I'll come in just below that with a wager of $90.


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Fri Apr 19, 2013, 12:43 PM
(#14)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
OK, votes are in!!!

The #3 option, BET MEDIUM, is far and away the leading vote getter.

Langolier: $90
Geovarta: $90 - $100
ArtySmokesPS and Roland GTX: $90
Mimesis.is: $100
Joy7108: $85 (she said half pot, which is $95 though)
Bill Curran: "bet small", let's call it $40
Grade b: "bet large", let's call it $125
Low Rated: "medium bet"
0HighTimes0: "medium bet"

So the consensus seems to come down on $90 as our bet. This is the bet we will choose...



When actions comes to us, we stay within our practiced routine, cut out $90 in chips, and smoothly move them forward.

We will pick up the action in a new thread.

Great responses everyone!!!

Last edited by JDean; Fri Apr 19, 2013 at 12:50 PM..
 

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