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AJs 2 nl

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AJs 2 nl - Fri Apr 19, 2013, 01:33 PM
(#1)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485


Do you think i raised to much on the river i was sure he had a strong hand
 
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Fri Apr 19, 2013, 01:58 PM
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ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
Any reads on the player?
I don't particularly like the pre-flop 3-bet if he's tight. He only minraised, but his under the gun range is mostly beating AJs. You're often staring at a pocket pair like JJ-88, and you'll get value from those hands by flat-calling and seeing if you can flop an ace. If he's minraising a monster (QQ+/AK) then you'll get value-owned when you 3-bet AJs and he 4-bets.
As played, he just calls the 3-bet. His most likely holding is a medium pair, but it may be as strong as QQ, because lots of villains at these stakes find it hard to let go of a pair pre-flop, but they don't want to 4-bet when your range looks like AK/QQ+. (Calling 3-bets oop, like villain did, is a big leak).

Flop is great for you. With top 2, you're only losing to JJ (a hand in villain's range, but quite unlikely here, as that would have to be the case jack on the flop) and AA (very unlikely, given the pre-flop action).
Villain donks out for less than half pot. This is either a set of jacks looking to get all in (you're in bad shape) or it's one pair, either something like QQ/TT hoping you have no ace, or maybe AQ-AT.
The standard play here is to flat call, because you're either way ahead or way behind. The turn pairs the board, but this 3 is basically a blank. Villain may be slowplaying a boat, but most of the time I think he has QQ/TT and he's shutting down after you called on the flop; because your play basically said "Yes, I have an ace".
You can bet fairly small on the turn, hoping QQ/TT will make a crying call, but I think this villain will often fold all his underpairs. Your bet size is actually great if villain has QQ, because 2NL players get married to their pairs, as I said, so he'll call half pot.
On the river, you boat up, so even if villain was slowplaying jacks full, you sucked out. Again, I'd go for a smaller bet. You're right at the top of your range (top boat), but villain really can't be all that strong. I'd choose a sizing that tries to squeak out a little more value from QQ/TT. He can't call a bet of half pot without an ace or a boat, and previous actions indicate he doesn't have one.

Villain certainly started with a fairly strong hand, but on the river he's relatively weak. QQ and TT have no value on this board when you've fired 3 streets, so it's highly likely that he check-folds to a meaningful bet.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Fri Apr 19, 2013, 02:26 PM
(#3)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Oh sorry yh he was weak that's why i re raised pre i was likely well ahead, i put a big bet at the end hoping he had a pair at least because he weren't letting a pair go. I think he had a flush draw, im glad i never said anything though i like to hear your reads vs regs/ how to gain value from there pockets on the river.
 

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