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10nl 6-max zoom: Ranging and resulting decision on flop

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10nl 6-max zoom: Ranging and resulting decision on flop - Fri Apr 19, 2013, 03:34 PM
(#1)
cattons3's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 16
Hi,

Just played this hand and am trying to decide if I made the right decision.

Pre flop I 3 bet because I'd rather not limp and then get raised out.

On the flop, when he check raises I'm ranging him on AA/QQ/88/A8s/AQs and possible KJdd, do you agree?

I used pokerstove based on this and I think when he shoves all in I kinda have to call, or do you think his hand is so much more polarised to a set that I should fold?

But my main question is how do you think I should have responded to the C/R ?



Thanks.
 
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Fri Apr 19, 2013, 09:24 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,363
Did you have any notes or stats on the villain?
I tend to give UTG raises a little too much respect, but my standard play pre-flop would be to just call, to keep his range relatively wide. I'm not sure what sort of ranges unknown players are opening UTG at 10NL 6max, but I think AQs is roughly flipping with that range. Calling allows you to get value when you flop top pair and villain c-bets with an underpair or draw. 3-betting somewhat manipulates villain's range to one that has you in pretty bad shape. When you raise, villain can fold the weaker end of his range (KJs, AJo, 77 etc) and either 4-bet or call with the better hands. His flat call here looks a lot like a pair that couldn't find a fold. You flop top two, which is a strong holding, but it's hard for your bet to be called by worse. Hands like TT and 99 are mucking. If KJs is still in the pot, it might call, but there aren't a lot of flush draws out there, because villain would usually fold hands like KTs/T9s to the 3-bet, and he can't have a nut flush draw with the Ad, because that's on the board.
His check-raise looks very much like a set to me, because I just don't see him showing A8 here, unless he's particularly loose/bad. I don't really like him calling the pre-flop 3-bet out of position with hands like QQ and 88 (indeed, it's a big leak to call 3-bets oop with hands like these) but it looks like he got lucky this time. When he makes it "obvious" he hit his set, you shouldn't pay him off. You should fold to the check-raise, because when you 3-bet the flop, you're usually value-owning yourself against a range that crushes you. With just 2 outs vs a set of queens, and 4 outs against a set of eights, you're going to lose your stack here pretty often.

When I stoved the range you put him on, I got a shade under 37% equity for your hand, so you can actually call the shove, because the pot lays a price that requires 26%, but I think his range is narrower, and you're more likely to be crushed, with just 15% equity vs QQ and 88.


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Sat Apr 20, 2013, 05:50 AM
(#3)
cattons3's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 16
No notes on the player, it's just that I've seen people min raise and then call a 3 bet with all sorts of hands UTG, so I do think that KJs and K10s would be in his pre flop range sometimes, but I agree that when he does check raise the flop, it's most likely a set of either 8's Q's or I still think possibly A's sometimes.

Thank You.
 
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Sat Apr 20, 2013, 06:34 AM
(#4)
f1nlaion's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 64
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
Did you have any notes or stats on the villain?
I tend to give UTG raises a little too much respect, but my standard play pre-flop would be to just call, to keep his range relatively wide. I'm not sure what sort of ranges unknown players are opening UTG at 10NL 6max, but I think AQs is roughly flipping with that range. Calling allows you to get value when you flop top pair and villain c-bets with an underpair or draw. 3-betting somewhat manipulates villain's range to one that has you in pretty bad shape. When you raise, villain can fold the weaker end of his range (KJs, AJo, 77 etc) and either 4-bet or call with the better hands. His flat call here looks a lot like a pair that couldn't find a fold.
I can see your point ArtySmokes but I do think you are giving a little too much respect to this UTG raise.
First of all, his open UTG is a min-raise and from this we can conclude he is not a strong regular, since it is not considered correct to min-raise UTG(invite too much action with bad position and a strong range, giving everyone the chance to crack ur big hands). Therefore, I am definitely fine with 3-betting and isolating the weak min opener UTG. As far as his range for calling our 3-bet is concerned, I would tend to expect it to be pretty wide as well(would a loose player ditch a good looking QJs,JTs for just 0.4$ more to him? ), unless I see otherwise.


Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
You flop top two, which is a strong holding, but it's hard for your bet to be called by worse. Hands like TT and 99 are mucking. If KJs is still in the pot, it might call, but there aren't a lot of flush draws out there, because villain would usually fold hands like KTs/T9s to the 3-bet, and he can't have a nut flush draw with the Ad, because that's on the board.
Again here against an unknown possibly non-regular, I would tend to expect that on this board we can get a ton of calls from worse hands than ours. All flush draws, broadway draws, and all top pairs that he flatted pre with.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
When he makes it "obvious" he hit his set, you shouldn't pay him off. You should fold to the check-raise
Just a single smallish check-raise does not scream set imho. Therefore, I would definitely flat call his check raise and re-evaluate on the turn. He can hold a flush draw or even a broadway draw with which he just decided to make a cheap steal with. And in either case we still have outs to a boat with a Q and 2 outs to the nuts with A.
When we 3-bet the flop though the situation gets a bit out of hand because we are not certain with what range he is stacking off on this board and after his 4-bet we reach a clear cut puke situation

Does this analysis sound too optimistic or is there any truth to it?

edit: on a funny note ArtySmokes, u will be surprised with what trash people tend to call 3-bets with
http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-h...619_2DD815874B

Last edited by f1nlaion; Sat Apr 20, 2013 at 06:46 AM..
 
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Sat Apr 20, 2013, 07:54 AM
(#5)
cattons3's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 16
Quote:
Just a single smallish check-raise does not scream set imho. Therefore, I would definitely flat call his check raise and re-evaluate on the turn. He can hold a flush draw or even a broadway draw with which he just decided to make a cheap steal with. And in either case we still have outs to a boat with a Q and 2 outs to the nuts with A.
When we 3-bet the flop though the situation gets a bit out of hand because we are not certain with what range he is stacking off on this board and after his 4-bet we reach a clear cut puke situation

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So if you suggest flatting. Then if the turn is a blank to straight or flush, but he barrels, then tend towards folding, if he checks then I should bet, and then if he check raised again it would be a definite fold, unless odds were right, and with this is mind how big should I make my bet if checked to? I guess just big enough to make it unfavourable for him to continue a with a draw, so around 1/2 pot?

And if turn completes flush or staright draw, how would you proceed if he bet ? and if he checked?

Thanks.
 
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Sat Apr 20, 2013, 09:18 AM
(#6)
f1nlaion's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 64
Quote:
Originally Posted by cattons3 View Post
So if you suggest flatting. Then if the turn is a blank to straight or flush, but he barrels, then tend towards folding, if he checks then I should bet, and then if he check raised again it would be a definite fold, unless odds were right, and with this is mind how big should I make my bet if checked to? I guess just big enough to make it unfavourable for him to continue a with a draw, so around 1/2 pot?

And if turn completes flush or staright draw, how would you proceed if he bet ? and if he checked?

Thanks.
A lot depends on his bet sizing on the turn whether it is a blank or the flush gets there. For example if he fires 5$ into 6.35$, I would lean towards folding no matter what came. However if he bets smallish, I would peel off the turn and again decide on the river accordingly.

If checked to, on a blank turn I would prolly bet but in case of a check-raise there, I would go with it since his hand then looks a lot like a draw. No sense in checking a blank turn with a made hand and risk giving a free card, when we could check back with our possible flush draws.
 
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Sat Apr 20, 2013, 08:26 PM
(#7)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,363
Some great stuff from f1n here. Good discussion. I hope it gave cattons3 lots to think about.

[Marking as evaluated].


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Sun Apr 21, 2013, 07:57 PM
(#8)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
I generally prefer to flat with AQs pre here rather than 3b (it's not a limp, limp means to call the big blind) to keep the villain's range as wide as possible... 3-betting has the tendency to fold out hands we are dominating like QJ and A-rag, and get action from the parts of villains range that AQ specifically doesn't play well against (AK, pairs). Certainly against some villain types I like 3-betting here, but unknown I generally keep the pot smaller and the money deeper to keep their range as wide as possible and better leverage position post flop.

As for the flop check-raise, I think we can't really range him the way you've done here... this is part of the trouble with being unknown. Some of your range is pretty loose/bad to be calling a 3b out of position with. KJs, A8s, 88 are all sketchy vs an unknown in us. But if he is calling pre with these then he's certainly got other draws in his range, like JdTd or Td9d for combo draws. And maybe he called with AK and is now overvaluing it post flop. And there are possibly some bluffs in there, stuff where he thinks if you don't have AK or a set he can get you off it.

As for the best line in response, I don't really have a great idea with no reads. Considering the level of tom foolery I would expect to see at 10nl I think reraising solid and getting it in isn't bad. Flatting to keep bluffs in and shove over a turn bet on a safe card is decent as well. Both lines have merits, ups and downs.

One thought I'd like to add to the already great discussion here, something Arty said:

Quote:
You flop top two, which is a strong holding, but it's hard for your bet to be called by worse. Hands like TT and 99 are mucking.
This is true, but I think it's better to bet anyway and let him fold these types of holdings in this case. There is a fairly big risk associated with giving a free card to some of these hands in our actual hand strength... if he has 99 and the turn is a 9, we are going to be paying off his big turn and river bets, or be faced with a check-raise that will be very difficult for us to get away from holding top 2. Now (again, with reads), this risk would be ok with me if there were a compensating reward for assuming it... like for example if the villain would take 99 and bomb the turn and river trying to get us to fold KK/JJ/TT when he doesn't hit his 2 outter, that's a profitable line for us than just c-betting big on the flop and having him put no more money in the pot. But we don't know that. There are some villains who will just never put another penny in the pot unless they actually draw out on us... against them our bet is not getting called by worse but it's still optimal because if they won't bluff or make a light call down later in the hand and will only put more $ in when they get there, then they are just freerolling us when we let them see a card, so betting at least denies them a chance to realize their equity.


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