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Pop Quiz - Fri Apr 19, 2013, 05:40 PM
(#1)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
I just had an interesting hand that got me thinking.

3 hands allin. Without an equity calculator estimate who is the favourite in this hand and who is the underdog

As9h vs JsTh vs 4c5c

Andy




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Last edited by ahar010; Fri Apr 19, 2013 at 05:50 PM..
 
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Fri Apr 19, 2013, 05:44 PM
(#2)
EvokeNZ's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 557
kq seems to have more chances, 45 with the least
 
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Fri Apr 19, 2013, 05:49 PM
(#3)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Quote:
Originally Posted by EvokeNZ View Post
kq seems to have more chances, 45 with the least
Sorry I changed the bar on you KQ became JT.

btw did you see the bit about not using an equty calculator? :P




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Fri Apr 19, 2013, 05:50 PM
(#4)
EvokeNZ's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 557
Yeah I saw. I figured picture cards can make more top pairs, A can make a high card and top pair.
 
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Fri Apr 19, 2013, 05:58 PM
(#5)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Quote:
Originally Posted by EvokeNZ View Post
Yeah I saw. I figured picture cards can make more top pairs, A can make a high card and top pair.
Very nice then.

I would rank them A9 > JT > 45s

A high wins on all boards where noone improves. When A makes a pair everyone else is drawing slim to two pair or better.

JT needs to improve to win the hand. If they do make a pair then it'll dominate any pairs from 45 and one pair from A9

45 needs to improve and dodge 4 over cards. Or make a flush or straight.




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Last edited by ahar010; Fri Apr 19, 2013 at 06:00 PM..
 
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Fri Apr 19, 2013, 06:05 PM
(#6)
EvokeNZ's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 557
of course if it wasn't an all in I'd rate 45 a bit higher for some sort of drawing power. imo

a9 doesn't have the connectedness for me.
 
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Fri Apr 19, 2013, 07:18 PM
(#7)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,355
If you think A9 vs JT vs 54s is surprising, you should run the following hands through Equilab/pokerstove:

AJ vs 88 is a flip, with 88 the slight favourite.
KQ vs 88 is also a flip, with 88 again the slight favourite.
AJ vs KQ is 60/40 in AJ's favour.

So it seems KQ is the worst hand of the three.

But put all 3 hands in the same pot and I think it's the closest 3-way race that you can get, with 88 being the favourite by a tiny margin, and KQ being a bit better than AJ.

       Equity     Win     Tie
AJo    32.39%  32.29%   0.10% 
KQo    33.74%  33.65%   0.10% 
88     33.87%  33.77%   0.10% 


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Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Fri Apr 19, 2013 at 07:21 PM..
 
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Fri Apr 19, 2013, 07:57 PM
(#8)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Quote:
Originally Posted by EvokeNZ View Post
of course if it wasn't an all in I'd rate 45 a bit higher for some sort of drawing power. imo

a9 doesn't have the connectedness for me.
In an allin situation though. You aren't looking for a straight or flush to win. Any hand better than your opposition will do.

A9 is a 58% vs 42% favourite vs JT or 45s alone
JT is a 58% vs 42% favourite vs 45s

So how does the dynamic change in a 3way hand




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Fri Apr 19, 2013, 08:01 PM
(#9)
EvokeNZ's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 557
I had AA all in five ways once. Even though against each one I was the favourite, against them collectively it was a coin flip for me to win.
 
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Fri Apr 19, 2013, 08:05 PM
(#10)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
If you think A9 vs JT vs 54s is surprising, you should run the following hands through Equilab/pokerstove:

AJ vs 88 is a flip, with 88 the slight favourite.
KQ vs 88 is also a flip, with 88 again the slight favourite.
AJ vs KQ is 60/40 in AJ's favour.

So it seems KQ is the worst hand of the three.

But put all 3 hands in the same pot and I think it's the closest 3-way race that you can get, with 88 being the favourite by a tiny margin, and KQ being a bit better than AJ.

       Equity     Win     Tie
AJo    32.39%  32.29%   0.10% 
KQo    33.74%  33.65%   0.10% 
88     33.87%  33.77%   0.10% 
My original hand

As9h vs KsQh vs 4c5c is actually very close to a 3way race. With KQ edging slightly ahead to 34%

Playing around replacing KQ with JT improved JT's equity to almost 37%. 45 holds firm on about 32.5% equity and A9 taking the big hit dropping to 31% equity.

Heads up
A9 vs JT 58/42 favourite

Add in another clear underdog hand 45s

Suddenly A9 loses 27% equity in the hand and JT only loses 5% equity.

Big shift




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Fri Apr 19, 2013, 08:37 PM
(#11)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
My guess would be the big shift comes from where the 45s gets it's equity from. About 5% of it is coming from making striaghts and flushes which comes out of both the other hands. But alot fo the unimproved boards that previously won by A9 will a contain a 5 or a 4 and are now won by 45s. Conversly the board that JT wins will predominately by pair of T's or better which aren't affected by boards containing a 4 or a 5.

Very interesting dynamic.

Not sure it really factors much into gameplay, other than short stacked small suited connectors really hold their equity vs multiple opponents.




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Fri Apr 19, 2013, 09:44 PM
(#12)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,355
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahar010 View Post
Not sure it really factors much into gameplay, other than short stacked small suited connectors really hold their equity vs multiple opponents.
Indeed. One thing that equity simulations do have an effect on is something I've been struggling with lately... and that's creating shoving ranges and calling ranges when faced with a shove.
For example, I'm often happy to shove 10bb on the button with a hand like T9s, because if I'm called by a hand like AQ, I have two live cards, plus straight and flush potential, giving me equity when called of over 40%.
If I'm in the blinds facing a shove, then I'd happily call with AQ if I knew a villain was shoving hands like T9s, but I'd hate to call if villain has AK, because then I'm dominated and down to 25%.

It's really interesting (to a nerd like me) to create a shoving range and then find out which hands do best against that range.
For example, if a villain was shoving 77+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,AJo+ (9.35% of hands) then I'd actually have more equity if I called with KQs, than if I called with AJo. If villain's range included more suited aces, then suddenly AJ is a better hand to call with than KQs.


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