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Heads up odds

Heads up odds - Fri Apr 19, 2013, 11:28 PM
andrei17731's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 160
In a heads up match what are the odds of flopping a pair? middle pair? top pair? I assume it would be less than in a nine table ring game because there are more people.
Sat Apr 20, 2013, 11:36 AM
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,363
It doesn't matter how many players are at the table, because their cards are unknown. Obviously, if you had AK and several other players held the aces and kings, then you can't flop top pair, but villains are just as likely to hold 72, so you have to assume that a flop will contain an ace just as often as it will contain a deuce.
In practice, this isn't quite the case. Since players are more likely to call and see a flop when they have "big cards", aces and kings will appear on the flop slightly less often than cards of other ranks. Similarly, if you have AA or KK, you'll flop a set slightly less often than you would with other pocket pairs, because when you raise/3-bet pre-flop, villains are often going to be playing with AK/AQ/KQ, so making a set would require a 1 outer to hit the board.

With two unpaired cards (e.g. AK, JT), then the probability of flopping a pair is about 30%. With AK, it's obviously TPTK every time. The chance of making top pair declines rapidly if you don't have an ace or king. For example, if you have pocket jacks or JT, the flop will contain an ace, king or queen almost 60% of the time.

You can find out lots more interesting probabilities on this wikipedia page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_p..._hold_%27em%29

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Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Sat Apr 20, 2013 at 11:41 AM..

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