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QQ vs a nit

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QQ vs a nit - Sun Apr 21, 2013, 10:44 AM
(#1)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485


As you can see i could of easily took his stack here though i would of been lucky to flop a set anyway

I had just over 200 hands on him and raised 3bb utg+1 he re raised to 24c i think it was i folded, the reason for my fold was he had 8vp and 3 pfr / 0 3bet so i knew he was either on KK or AA so i was definitely behind but would it be profitable in the long run to call those raises looking to make a set vs higher pairs with QQ or was i right in folding?
 
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Sun Apr 21, 2013, 12:59 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,355
If villain's stats are 8/3 over 200 hands, then he's an ubernit, and folding QQ to his 3-bet is definitely the right play... when stacks are 100bbb deep, because you won't have set-mining odds.

But here, both you and villain have over 250bb, so the implied odds should be there. Let's do the math.
The cost of calling the raise is 18c, and the maximum amount you stand to win (assuming heads up) is the dead money already in the pot (37c), plus villain's remaining stack ($5.25) because you have him covered.
When set-mining, I like to have implied odds of 15:1. If the maximum win is more than 15 times the price of calling, it's profitable to go set-mining with QQ.
Maximum win = 5.25+0.37 = $5.62.
15 * price of calling = 15 * 18c = $2.70

Since the maximum win is far in excess of 15 * price of calling, you should be calling here. Just be disciplined. Flopping an overpair is no good. If the flop comes Jxx, you should still fold QQ, because villain will nearly always have JJ or KK+.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Sun Apr 21, 2013, 01:21 PM
(#3)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
I like your thought process here. It can be a disaster to starting putting in a lot of money when your close to 100% sure you are behind. There are a few more considerations to make before making this fold however.

Consider this: If we think he has only AA/KK then he is going to be playing his hand very hard post-flop and will probably have a very hard time folding if you fight back. What this means is the 1 in 8 times you flop a set you will usually have him completely crushed, drawing to 2 outs (once and a while you both might flop a set, but I wouldn't worry it much). So the conclusion we can make is the times we flop a set we stand to win a large pot, possibly even his entire stack. We have very high implied odds to call and draw for a set on the flop.

You have to call .18 to make this draw. Doing this 8 times will cost $1.44. Will we win greater than $1.44 the times a set of queens? I think so considering the circumstances. If you simply called him down to the river he will most likely bet more than $1.44 himself. The cool thing is if you raise him on the flop he is unlikely to just assume you hit a set and promptly fold his pretty over-pair. You will often be winning his entire stack, making this call very profitable in the long run I believe.

The key to making this call is to have a plan. Your looking to hit a set on the flop. That is it.
 
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Sun Apr 21, 2013, 01:21 PM
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mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Arty you are the man that makes so much sense why didn't i think of that.

Another one for the notebook hehehe
 
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Sun Apr 21, 2013, 01:28 PM
(#5)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
cheers rockerguy yeah im very good at folding when i know im beat its just when i have an overpair then bet flop il normally check the turn and decide what to do, it can be hard folding an overpair especially when some players will just bet because you shown weakness.
 

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