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Calculating "Outs"

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Calculating "Outs" - Tue Apr 23, 2013, 02:58 AM
(#1)
Swami Andy's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 9
I'm a new player and have been reading the poker school tutroial. In it,it gives an example that if you hold A(H)3(H) and then the flop comes with 7(H)9(C)K(H) then you have 9 outs which would then give you a flush. But when calculating outs dont you also include any other cards that would improve your hand ie there are 3 more As and 3 more 3s out there to give you a pair, so arent there 15 outs with this hand? Thx for an explanations on this.....
 
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Tue Apr 23, 2013, 04:23 AM
(#2)
royalraise85's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26,019
(Community Coordinator)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Swami Andy View Post
I'm a new player and have been reading the poker school tutroial. In it,it gives an example that if you hold A(H)3(H) and then the flop comes with 7(H)9(C)K(H) then you have 9 outs which would then give you a flush. But when calculating outs dont you also include any other cards that would improve your hand ie there are 3 more As and 3 more 3s out there to give you a pair, so arent there 15 outs with this hand? Thx for an explanations on this.....
Hi Andy,

You've already kinda answered your own question with this one. This example from the Calculating Outs article where you are holding is specifically taking about a flush draw only in this case, other examples are listed for straight draws and draws with over cards etc, but this example is talking about outs to make the flush draw only.

Raiser


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Tue Apr 23, 2013, 02:26 PM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
The reason you'll generally only count the flush cards as outs is that if you hit the flush and you have the ace, and the board doesn't pair, you will have the stone cold nuts.
It's not a good idea to count the other aces and threes as outs, because one pair is unlikely to be the best hand at showdown, but the nut flush will be.


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Wed Apr 24, 2013, 07:17 PM
(#4)
Swami Andy's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 9
Thx. that makes sense as i guess someone might have a with a higher kicker or be able to beat a pair of 3s easily.
 
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Mon May 06, 2013, 01:25 PM
(#5)
DJCarter86's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 3
I'm having trouble with this also. When using the rule of 2 and 4 to calculate outs, do you work it out for each individual hand? I took the test at the bottom of the page and only got 25% . One of the questions was something like you have Ac Kc and your opponent has 2d 2h and the flop is 10d 10s 3s . What is your chance of winning? and how ever I worked it out I couldn't get any of the 3 choices. There's 4 queens, 4 jacks for the straight, 2 10s for four of a kind with an ace kicker,3 aces or 3 kings or 3 threes for 2 pair. That makes 76% which is clearly wrong. Can someone help?
 
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Mon May 06, 2013, 01:32 PM
(#6)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
If the board is TT3 and you have AK, a queen or a jack will not give immediately you a straight. You'd need runner-runner to make a straight or quads or a full house. It's pointless couting runner-runners as outs, because you're very unlikely to hit them. The immediate outs you have are 3 aces, 3 kings and 3 treys. 9 outs x 4 (because you are seeing two cards) = about 36% chance of having the best hand. If you were just seeing one card, then it's just 9 outs * 2 = 18%.


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Mon May 06, 2013, 02:04 PM
(#7)
DJCarter86's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 3
Ah so I should only count outs that immediately give me the best hand. I understand now thanks for the help.
 

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