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$3.50 fifty50, to steal or not to steal?

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$3.50 fifty50, to steal or not to steal? - Tue Apr 23, 2013, 05:21 PM
(#1)
Espada_Nu.4's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 148


ive seen players in higher stakes($30+) shoving here.
is this correct?
i mean, you are risking too much to win a few.
if i had 10-12BB i would probably shove, but with my stack if i get called and loose, i will be left with almost half of what i have now
 
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Wed Apr 24, 2013, 03:40 AM
(#2)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
I would push here all suited Ks, K9+,QTs+,QJ+,all As, 22+. He's is short stack and calls wide range of hands and T9 isn't good enough to steal here for me.
 
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Wed Apr 24, 2013, 09:59 AM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
In a regular sit n go or MTT, I'm usually shoving here, because 98s is well inside my 10bb shoving range for blind v blind. I use quite a tight push chart, but I'm shoving 52% of hands here, which is a range including hands like J2s, Q6o and T8o.

But let's look at the math. Villain started the hand with less than 10bb.
If you shove and he calls, the pot will be 2425 and you voluntarily contributed 1085, meaning you break even if you have 1085/2425 = 45% equity. If he calls with hands like AQ, you only have about 41%. Against a 20% calling range, you have about 38% equity.

But fold equity is the key component missing from the calculations. If villain is only calling 20% of the time, then 80% of the time you're adding 315 chips to your stack without seeing a flop.
In effect, the shove is basically unexploitable, because you win when he folds often, and you have a decent chance to knock him out even when he calls.

Having said all that, in this particular spot, I might just make a 2.2 x raise. I've found that in microstakes 50/50s, fold equity for steals is pretty high, and typical villains only 3-bet shove with super-strong holdings. So you could raise here and then either fold to a shove (if he's an ubernit) or call (with great pot odds) if he's looser.


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Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Wed Apr 24, 2013 at 10:02 AM..
 
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Wed Apr 24, 2013, 11:43 AM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,841
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Hey Espada!

I agree with Arty on this. The opp shouldn't want to get too adventurous due to the other shorter stacks and if I make my std raise for this level (3X), the opp is NOT pot committed. Due to this, I'm making a normal raise, then re-evaluating if they shove. The overwhelming majority of the time you'll be able to pick up the blinds and since each chip is worth cash at the end of the tourney, I want to try to get as many as possible.

John (JWK24)

P.S. In the 50/50's, you don't necessarily want to look at your stack in relation to BB's... you need to look at where you're at in chip position (top 5 or not top 5).


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