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5NL - gross spot on turn with set

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5NL - gross spot on turn with set - Wed Apr 24, 2013, 10:45 AM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
This makes me wanna puke!
I have no idea what to make of this...

Now I'm hating myself for raising turn, but his turn sizing is so disgusting that at first impression makes me feel he is on a draw but after he re-raised looks like a setup. What do you think the best line would be here?

Villain 24/14/4 (76 Hands)

 
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Wed Apr 24, 2013, 02:43 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,363
I like the way you played this, because it extracts maximum value from a wide range of worse hands and draws.
Raising villain's donkbet on the flop for big fat value is great, because he can lead out out with any pair, any draw, worse sets, and sometimes complete air. Your raise folds out the air, but there are tons of hands that may call which you're beating.
The small redonk on the turn is just weird. The only hands that sucked out are A4 and 66, so you're still way ahead of his range. He might be over-valuing (and trying to "protect") hands like TT-77 that are virtually drawing dead.
So again, I like your raise. His big shove looks really scary, but - because you're so much shorter - you only need about 31% equity to call.
Even if villain only makes this play with sets and straights, you're going to win almost 40% of the time. (Even if he has the straight, you can boat/quad up).

Board:
Equity Win Tie
Hero 39.82% 36.01% 3.82% { 5s5c }
Vill 60.18% 56.36% 3.82% { 66, 33-22, A4s, A4o }

When you factor in that villain might also be going crazy with overpairs and combo wheel/flush draws with hands like AXhh and AXdd, this is a profitable call. (You only need to add a few draws and overpairs to his shoving range to become a big favourite).


Bracelet Winner
 
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Wed Apr 24, 2013, 05:51 PM
(#3)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
First thing is you should ask yourself, "If I raise villain on the flop, am I willing to get it all-in right here?" If the answer is no, then raising may not be the best option here.

Second thing is, the turn card is really bad. It completes an open end straight and the villain is betting out into you. He is giving you nice odds to draw to a boat. You could definitely still win at showdown if river is checked as well. So calling overall seems +EV to me. Raising on the other hand, your may very well fold out smaller sets and overpairs and only get called by made straights and flush draws + straight draws. You can probably expect to never get raised by worse. Bad situation in my opinion. Your getting a small amount of value out of good draws and totally value-owning yourself the rest of the time.
 
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Wed Apr 24, 2013, 07:35 PM
(#4)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,363
Oh, I forgot to include the obvious 44 in villain's range for donk-calling, redonking-shoving.

I'm still sure we're in good enough shape to call the shove though.

P.S. I don't think villain is ever folding a set on the turn, by the way. Geo's play is consistent with an overpair or NFD. Pocket deuces is never folding if villain puts geo on TT+ or AKdd/AKhh.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Wed Apr 24, 2013, 09:19 PM
(#5)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
I agree with you Arty about what geoVARTA is representing.

I don't know about villain though... his line is so inconsistent for most hands. I would expect a good draw that semi-bluff raises flop to continue on the turn, not check-raise. Similar kind of logic when considering if he is turning 77-TT into a bluff. Also, wouldn't a flopped set/straight re-raise on the flop? On the other hand his line is more (not completely) consistent with a hand that improved on the turn. That would be 44, 66, 56, 78hh/dd.

So best I can tell opponent's range consists of 44, 66, 56, 78s. While the flop provides a great bluffing opportunity, I would think his bluffing would become very limited once being raised again by geoVARTA on the turn. Like you said geoVARTA is representing big pairs and flush draws and geo's actions should have made it clear at this point that he is unlikely to fold.

Against such a range geoVARTA's equity is bad. If you throw in a couple of pure bluffs then I suppose calling would make sense using my analysis.
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...c?sitId=178152

Personally I don't like calling the shove here. I don't see any evidence available to assume villain is capable of going into total spazz-mode once faced with a raise on the turn. If anything I think geoVARTA's hand is being over-valued here if he were to call of his stack on the turn. Set of 5's is more of a medium strength holding relative to the board/situation. On the turn I think it would be better to contain the pot size as a medium pot for a medium hand.

Also, I still think calling his donk-bet on turn is much less risky. Yes we do lose some value from draws, but it makes things so much easier and keeps the pot smaller. Plus you could literally draw to a full-house+ and fold every brick river and probably already show a profit.
 

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