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The Long Game - Inside the head of a donk.

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The Long Game - Inside the head of a donk. - Wed Apr 24, 2013, 10:33 PM
(#1)
HoaryGill's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 51
I am donkey
hear me suck
on my river
you will muck
caught you stealin
with no truck
left you cryin
bout your luck


I must be a donkey. I've been called that enough times, maybe it's starting to sink in. But I have to laugh. Anyone ever notice how it's just the hand losers that call the hand winners donkeys? "What? Because you thought I should fold to your weenie bet? 'Ha', I say!"

No gutz, no gory!

But I'm not here to talk about the bingo tournament aspects of play money equivalent low-stakes MTTs

nah, it's more about avoiding the prevalent madness of the early stages of such tournaments.


Ya gotta love this game though, eh? : everyone is a freakin' genius! Of course you can usually rely on their genius finishing them off as they let their egoes and contempt (emotion) for what they believe are lesser intellects, influence their play. I have no fears or worries of making occasional donk plays because the way I see it is if you've got them thinking you're a donkey then you have an edge on them. You want them to think you're a donk. Get 'em eating outa your hand - then, when the moment is right, pounce!

So sure, I go with luck when it's running well. Why shouldn't I? There's great sport in seeing self-smug geniuses blow a gasket or two. Oh, they love to make themselves look smart by spouting off numbers, odds, outs and percentages, but I gotta tell ya something, pal, all the knowledge of your exact odds will not affect one iota what the next card in the deck is. That was all predetermined in the shuffle and the deal, and when that one in a million shot comes down, how about you just take it like a man and spare everyone your hard-luck bad-beat drivel? Royal flushes happen. Quads happen. Big boats get sunk by bigger boats. Here's a tissue. Suck it up and move on.

The game is 90% luck (variance? Don't make me laugh! A rose by any other name...) and luck, if you haven't figured it out, tends to run in waves. And sure, you can do a lot to influence your luck in the way you bet, but the only real skill in this game is in knowing how to ride that wave of luck, and in having a keen developed sense of when to jump off that wave before you get caught up in its deadly undertow. That's called cutting your losses. So you don't get dragged out to sea where you end up in that fool's game of trying to play catch-up.

The best way, in my opinion, of limiting your bad luck is by limiting the number of hands you get involved in. Want to know about odds? I'll tell you about odds: odds are you lose! STAY OUT OF HANDS! This should be a key strategy in lasting in any kind of tournament and making it to the money or final table. Don't be upset when you see a hand go down that you would have won. The important thing about those hands is someone lost, so it's all good. Don't sweat it. It's not your hand. And as I like to put it, you have to fold a lot of best hands to make it to the money.

Large multi-table tournaments are jam-packed full of all manner of cut-throats, desperados, donkeys, and assorted egoes and geniuses, along with multitudes of Albanians, Romanians, and the like, who have virtually nothing to live for, and will happily eliminate each other to their hearts' content until a mere 15 or 20 minutes later, anywhere from a third to a half of the field is gone, in the 2-cent 990, for example, or the 10-cent 360. Just sit back and enjoy the fireworks. The winners are just temporarily holding those chips for you - or so you hope. lol
;?)

So I'd like to share a strategy/system I thought of, to help or hinder your long game, that I simply call see-3 (c-3). It can be used effectively in single table tournaments too, but I have to say that in spite of its simplicity, it can be extremely difficult to adhere to if you're as undisciplined as I am. It's always a b*tch when you can't even stick to your own rules! But invariably I can say to myself every time I fail to make it to the money, "you'd still be in the game if you'd stuck to playing see-3, idiot!"

Well you know how it is. You just have to play those premium cards when you get 'em. No discipline. You can't help yourself. But in low-stakes virtual play-money free-roll bingo tournaments, you're going to lose with those high pocket pairs more than win with them.

So the whole premise to see-3 is you don't play any hands until you've seen 3 shown-down hands that you would have won had you played them. Indeed, you avoid playing everything but the blinds and button, and even then you don't play raised pots except tentatively under favorable circumstances. Instinct and experience can guide you, but for the most part you just play scared.

Of course as chance would have it, seeing 3 shown hands you'd have won can happen very quickly or as more often is the case (which is why you should stay out of hands) can seemingly take forever! So there are the necessary adaptations for both cases: following c-3 with see-1/play-1 in the former and an assessed point plan for the latter. This can be arbitrary (come up with your own formula) but I like to count 10 points per 'see', as in see 10 hands not shown-down that you think you might have won and count them as one 'see'. It's basically a timing system anyway which you can tweak as you see fit depending on the size of tournament or how quickly those 'points' come.

One benefit of this method of timing your play is that in the meantime while you're waiting for your arbitrary criteria to be met, is you get to see and gauge the play of everyone else while they have not clue one as to how you play, which gives you a tight image and a marginal advantage over them when you finally do play.

Another rather interesting and somewhat amusing aspect is that being an avid poker player as you are, you really do want to play, and so you're actually hoping to see those sets, straights, flushes, boats and quads you would have won with just so you can count one 'see'. lol ...because usually, you know, you don't want to see that you would have won when you've folded!

It's literally poker heresy and maybe that's why I like it. But I'll be damned if I could actually stick to the plan. It is hard to do. Bet ya can't!

So naturally I've become quite adept at playing short stacked, and as I put it, riding that cusp of elimination all the way to the money. Can't tell you how many times I've been short stack at final table - a scenario I'm only all-too-familiar with.
 
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Thu Apr 25, 2013, 08:22 AM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,354
It's a good job I have a sense of humour, because if I took this post literally, I'd have to respond to the "bad thinking" in almost every paragraph!

I know you're being facetious, but there is one line in particular I can't resist:
Quote:
But in low-stakes virtual play-money free-roll bingo tournaments, you're going to lose with those high pocket pairs more than win with them.
This simply isn't true. If you go all in with AA and there are 4 completely random hands also in the pot, you'll win 56% of the time.

Your c-3 plan is completely crazy on a mathematical basis (early results have no effect on future results, because the cards are random, not pre-programmed, so basing decisions on hands that "would have won" makes no sense), but it's not so far off from a winning strategy for the OSL and 10-man 50/50s, because laddering up by folding will tend to lead to more profit than gambling it up when the blinds are low.

Hopefully any passing newcomers to the forum will realise that your post was made largely in jest, and that far more profitable advice can be found elsewhere in the forum.

Cheers!


Bracelet Winner
 
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Thu Apr 25, 2013, 08:48 AM
(#3)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
To imitate the trolls from another poker site I visit:

heresy ITT [X]
maths [ ]



Haha... anyways good read I enjoyed it!
 
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Thu Apr 25, 2013, 12:42 PM
(#4)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Wow, there's time I am not gettin back.
 
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Thu Apr 25, 2013, 04:43 PM
(#5)
HoaryGill's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 51
Yeah Arty, hopefully nobody gets rich on anything I suggest... cuz I'll be wantin' my cut!

Gonna give that OSL a try though. Tee-off in 20 minutes.

happy to entertain you, Rockerguy!

Sorry about your luck, bhoylegend. Can't give you a refund.

Are you sure you have time for poker? You won't get any of that back either.

Put me on iggy and maybe we can co-exist.
 
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Sat Apr 27, 2013, 09:31 AM
(#6)
HoaryGill's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 51
omg look me up!

playing short stack final table right now

from playing c3

now playing c1/play1
 
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Sat Apr 27, 2013, 09:43 AM
(#7)
HoaryGill's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 51
dammit

went out bubble boy



grrrrr

wasn't in the money

shoulda folded
 
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Sat Apr 27, 2013, 09:51 AM
(#8)
HoaryGill's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 51
This was by far my best take-down of the game and made me chip leader for quite some time.



the perfect river bingo!

lol

hey, it was a 25-cent call!

tell me you wouldn't have made it.

that was the first of 4 consecutive hands I won. This is the fourth:



and this was my last notable large pot win in the tourney...(and yup, I showed) ;?)



damn. coulda-shoulda-woulda

next time!

:?D

Last edited by HoaryGill; Sun May 05, 2013 at 12:36 AM.. Reason: eye caint spiel
 
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Sat Apr 27, 2013, 10:23 AM
(#9)
HoaryGill's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 51
of course I'm not really out a quarter from losing that tournament.

I took the time to win the entry fee on the 1-2 tables first.

here:

behold the power of the fives



and here:



now that^ was everybody's poker dream come true: to have the nuts and have someone betting large to you.

go ahead. make my day!

Last edited by HoaryGill; Sat Apr 27, 2013 at 10:30 AM..
 
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Sat Apr 27, 2013, 10:50 AM
(#10)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,826
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
**moved to more appropriate forum JWK24**


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sun Apr 28, 2013, 08:11 AM
(#11)
Darkman61's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,225
BronzeStar
Thoroughly entertaining read

As Arty's already pointed out. The play that your "system" produces can be beneficial in certain circumstances, but it's certainly not good advice for anyone trying to improve their game.

But what do I know. I devote my life to being a better player and yet this site has treated me like a bitch for well over a year now. If I thought C3 would help I might give it a go, but in my case it's likely to end up as C3PO.
 
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Sun Apr 28, 2013, 07:51 PM
(#12)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkman61 View Post
Thoroughly entertaining read

As Arty's already pointed out. The play that your "system" produces can be beneficial in certain circumstances, but it's certainly not good advice for anyone trying to improve their game.

But what do I know. I devote my life to being a better player and yet this site has treated me like a bitch for well over a year now. If I thought C3 would help I might give it a go, but in my case it's likely to end up as C3PO.

Whaddya expect? The site is biased against miserable gits.

Good to see ya man. Run better.
 
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Mon Apr 29, 2013, 11:23 AM
(#13)
HoaryGill's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 51
thanks for the compliment, Darkman!

I don't know. No system is 100% But that's the thing with poker, ya gotta change gears a lot. Maybe even engine-brake as you fly past the sign that says 'no engine braking' just because the sound might disturb someone. The poker life you save could be your own!

My game sucks anyways, so I don't think C-3 can hurt it much.

There are so many loose players in this game, and certainly if you're playing low-stakes or play-money, it's probably not all that good for anyone's game. There are calls and suck-outs a-plenty - cuz no one's losing their shirt. (It boggles my mind how so many people think bluffing with absolutely nothing is a viable option at the play-money level)

But at least C-3 can help one avoid losing a whack of chips to someone who gets eliminated a few hands later. I don't know about anyone else, but that annoys the hell out of me. grrrr!

happy trapping!
 
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Mon Apr 29, 2013, 11:54 AM
(#14)
RedLetterman's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 665
Spotted at a distance, a lone stranger atop a tired steed. A tumbleweed crosses his path as he approaches the dusty and seemingly deserted town. He looks from left to right. He'd heard most of the former community abandoned the town when the silver mine closed, leaving just a few tired old timers to deal with the steady procession of young and inexperienced miners hungering for wealth and recognition.


Zoom into closeup on stranger's face. Cue the music.

Darkman?

It is! It's Darkman!

And he's here looking for Hoary Gill. (I do hope that's not a euphemism for something unseemly.) Oooohhh! There's going to be a shootout. Get Hoary's measurements for the pine box. Or maybe not. Maybe he's just passin' through........

Last edited by RedLetterman; Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 12:18 PM.. Reason: OCD
 
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Mon Apr 29, 2013, 12:41 PM
(#15)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
BronzeStar
There is something about playing the luck factor. We all have done it. Sometimes it works, and other times, the probabilities hold true. As stated by another posted, I believe this done in jest. It's a great stress reliever.

I would dispute the 90-10 split regarding luck and skill. This isn't the place to start a debate on that issue, especially on the percentages. In spite of that, I'll call it an even split. As long as you believe the deal is honest, the possibility of any hand winning is equal. However, once the players see the cards and bet them, an element of skill enters the picture.

Your comment regarding those crying is spot on. A player might have a hand that can only lose if one card hits the board. One card is a 4% chance, but if there is a chance of a loss it might happen. Hence the luck factor. Heck, had a player in a live game who would never fold if he held a four. For some reason, he had the uncanny habit of hitting the inside straight, winning flush, trips, boat, or house, thanks to that card.

For those looking for a more realistic study on the numbers, I would point to my topic, "Stats to Drown In," which appears in the Poker Education - Beginner's Questions section. No advice given in mine, just a mind-numbing overload of statistics on those top ten hands.
 
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re post - Thu May 02, 2013, 08:56 AM
(#16)
milehigh0874's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 256
omg i hope this isnt holdem multi accing
 
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Thu May 02, 2013, 05:25 PM
(#17)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by milehigh0874 View Post
omg i hope this isnt holdem multi accing

Nah,Hoary's posts don't read like English is his second language (maybe third...).
 
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Thu May 02, 2013, 05:52 PM
(#18)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkman61 View Post
Thoroughly entertaining read

As Arty's already pointed out. The play that your "system" produces can be beneficial in certain circumstances, but it's certainly not good advice for anyone trying to improve their game.

But what do I know. I devote my life to being a better player and yet this site has treated me like a bitch for well over a year now. If I thought C3 would help I might give it a go, but in my case it's likely to end up as C3PO.

No post in 6 months, and then all of a sudden you pop up in this thread - so random lol
 
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Sun May 05, 2013, 12:34 AM
(#19)
HoaryGill's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 51
Just remember who it was that brought ol' Darkie out from under his rock!

:?D
 
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Sun May 05, 2013, 12:38 AM
(#20)
HoaryGill's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by milehigh0874 View Post
omg i hope this isnt holdem multi accing
well, for what it's worth, I'm Holdem-up Hoary in some circles.
 

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