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I wonder if this is the usual end of month trend

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I wonder if this is the usual end of month trend - Fri Apr 26, 2013, 09:48 AM
(#1)
frasierbeams's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 145
I know that this is only 2 tourneys , but ever since I went in the most horrendous run losing to bad beats to get relegated from PL last May I appear to be part of a trens that sees you lose points in the last week or so in the OSL .
Before the 2nd of these hands I had 1990 points from 27 games played , not bad not brilliant , but I suspect I am now going to start losing alot of points .

Poker Stars Freeroll No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t20/t40 Blinds - 9 players - **deleted link per TOS JWK24**

UTG+2: t2900 72.50 BBs
MP1: t3020 75.50 BBs
MP2: t1460 36.50 BBs
CO: t1600 40 BBs
BTN: t1480 37 BBs
Hero (SB): t1460 36.50 BBs
BB: t1500 37.50 BBs
UTG: t200 5 BBs
UTG+1: t1340 33.50 BBs

Pre Flop: (t60) Hero is SB with K :club: K :diamond:
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t40, 2 folds, MP2 calls t40, CO raises to t360, 1 fold, Hero raises to t880, 3 folds, CO calls t520

Flop: (t1880) A :spade: 5 :club: 4 :diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets t560, CO raises to t720 all in, Hero calls t20 all in

Turn: (t3040) Q :heart: (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: (t3040) 5 :heart: (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: t3040
CO shows A :club: K :spade: (two pair, Aces and Fives)
Hero shows K :club: K :diamond: (two pair, Kings and Fives)
CO wins t3040


Although he has the button and AK I think villains call to the bet here is bad - what does he do if he misses the flop , with the chips he has behind . Anyway when I saw the ace on the flop I know I am ****ed but decided not to check fold - very bad - and play with 560 stack which is just a waste of time .

Poker Stars Freeroll No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t30/t60 Blinds - 9 players - **deleted link per TOS JWK24**

Hero (MP1): t1440 24 BBs
MP2: t1420 23.67 BBs
CO: t3100 51.67 BBs
BTN: t1450 24.17 BBs
SB: t3030 50.50 BBs
BB: t1440 24 BBs
UTG: t1500 25 BBs
UTG+1: t4680 78 BBs
UTG+2: t1500 25 BBs

Pre Flop: (t90) Hero is MP1 with K :heart: K :club:
UTG raises to t1500 all in, 2 folds, Hero calls t1440 all in, 5 folds

Flop: (t2970) 9 :heart: 7 :spade: Q :heart: (2 players - 2 are all in)

Turn: (t2970) 4 :diamond: (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: (t2970) A :club: (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: t2970
Hero shows K :heart: K :club: (a pair of Kings)
UTG shows 7 :diamond: 4 :club: (two pair, Sevens and Fours)
UTG wins t2970


This wunderkind had not played a hand , so I suppose he could have aces , but from experience in this league he more likely has any ace or a pair , so I think a call is fine . However , when the 7 drops on the flop again I resign myself to being toast .

Why would a player who has not played a hand suddenly decide to steal from UTG by open shoving 74o - looks very suspicious if you ask me .

Last edited by JWK24; Sat Apr 27, 2013 at 05:12 PM.. Reason: deleted link to unapproved website per TOS
 
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Fri Apr 26, 2013, 10:46 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
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Hi frasierbeams!

In the first hand with KK, I'm going to make a standard preflop raise, which is to 3 times the previous bet. Due to this, I'll bet 1080. I don't want to raise smaller, as I can be giving the opp the correct odds to beat me.

The flop brings an A and espcecially in a league game, I need to check/fold here. I'm most likely beat and I do not want to get married to my hand. Yes, it's a made hand, but with it most likely beat, I need to muck... especially late in the month when the point penalties are magnified.
----------
In the second hand, they key for me here is... has the opp been playing many hands. If they're playing tight (which you say that they are), then I'm mucking to a preflop shove. If the opp is playing like a maniac, then I'm calling. The only way I'm going out of a league game early at the end of the month is with a made hand without seeing an overcard on the flop.

The key is that if the opp has mucked every hand, I'm mucking preflop. Once again, I do NOT want to be married to a hand.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Fri Apr 26, 2013, 11:07 AM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
If you're seeing "trends", it's just your perfectly normal human brain trying to make sense of - and find patterns among - random occurences. You're exhibiting signs of confirmation bias, which is perfectly understandable.
Variance in poker can mess with your head. Try not to get tilted by the weird plays and bad beats. There is no pattern, no matter how hard your brain tries to find one.


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Fri Apr 26, 2013, 01:09 PM
(#4)
frasierbeams's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 145
maybe so but when the same trend appears at the time in the month every month for 14 months maybe there isn't a trend .

As for folding KK to an open shove , even against a tight player , get real , if he had AA i doubt he is open shoving with the blinds this small .
 
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Fri Apr 26, 2013, 01:15 PM
(#5)
frasierbeams's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 145
To JWK , if i raise to 1080 I cant realistically fold on the flop when the ace hits - I have invested 2/3 of my stack , folding is not an option . Yes I know this is a league game but still .

I have seen you reply to many posts here where you asking players why they have 1/3 or 2/3 of their stacking stack left at certain points - so are you advising raising to 1080 then folding the flop because of the ace , and leave yourself short stacked .

ALthough your feedback is appreciated I do believe it is inconsistent .
 
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Fri Apr 26, 2013, 01:19 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frasierbeams View Post
To JWK , if i raise to 1080 I cant realistically fold on the flop when the ace hits - I have invested 2/3 of my stack , folding is not an option . Yes I know this is a league game but still .

I have seen you reply to many posts here where you asking players why they have 1/3 or 2/3 of their stacking stack left at certain points - so are you advising raising to 1080 then folding the flop because of the ace , and leave yourself short stacked .

ALthough your feedback is appreciated I do believe it is inconsistent .

That's a difference between a league game and a cash tourney. In a league game, a player NEEDS to be ready to fold if their hand might not be the best after all 5 cards are on the board. Being pot-committed does not hold in league games like it does in cash tourneys. It's better to fold and last longer than to be pot-committed and put the chips in with possibly the worst hand.

Cash tourneys need to be played different than satties and both need to be played differently to league games. In league games, I do NOT want to be taking chances, especially late in the month.

John (JWK24)


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Fri Apr 26, 2013, 02:03 PM
(#7)
frasierbeams's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 145
420 chips you wont last long to make much difference - so you are advising to play like a nit ?

As for the guy with 74o , if he was playing tight as he was , don't you find it unusual he suddenly open shoves utg with that hand ? Doesnt make any sense
 
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Fri Apr 26, 2013, 02:13 PM
(#8)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Hi frasierbeams,

Looks to me like we have a very similar record in terms of number of games played and overall points/position this month. Here's how I would react to these hands, but it is a personal view only.

The 2 key factors for me in the 1st KK hand are 1) the size of the villains raise, big even over two limpers - but NOT an all-in shove - looks suspiciously like a big hand asking any maniac with any marginal hand to shove - and 2) even more important for me the early stage of the game.

Sad as it seems I am not committing to KK here as it is just too early. I am not happy about committing my stack, or a raise to 880 chips, or probably even the 320. I can continue with a near full stack and get a better spot later, or just blind down.

I would only play AA strongly here, and I would shove - with KK I take the wimp fold as it is too vulnerable in what is potentially a multiway pot against a possible AA, probable AK or frankly any Ax.

The points lost busting here will be a bit too many for the risk - even though we may have a big edge preflop. It is different when the field is down around 2500 to 3000 - then I know given my starting league position my loss will be easily recouped with one simple finish just past the 1440 bubble.

Similarly in second KK hand, next level but still too early to call off with KK v potential multiple hands for me.

Having said this - strategy depends very much on the individual players goal - I am just trying to get back in the Premier League, having missed ten days or so of the OSL in the middle of the month - and also accounting for how many potential playable games are left. I can certainly understand playing KK in these situations but if I was prepared to play them I would just shove the first hand and call the second.

As to any trend in other players behaviour, against the random field in the OSL there is rarely any trend in their play other than 70% are very bad, and 20% are even worse. There are probably several thousand half-decent players in the pool but they wont all be in a single tourney, and half in any game won't even be members of PSO. By this stage of the month the leagues competing players, maybe a few hundred in each game, will be protecting their position or trying to make a big move from some way back - so if you can identify them they might play tight or loose - but mainly half the field are not playing for league points and you will recognise the decent regs anyway.

Good luck finishing off the month - hope to see us both in the Premier League next month.

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan

Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Fri Apr 26, 2013 at 02:16 PM..
 
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Fri Apr 26, 2013, 02:16 PM
(#9)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frasierbeams View Post
420 chips you wont last long to make much difference - so you are advising to play like a nit ?
The only time I'm pot committed in a league game... is if I'm blinded in. Any other situation, regardless of how many chips I've got in the pot, if I don't have the best hand, I need to fold.

John (JWK24)


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Fri Apr 26, 2013, 03:16 PM
(#10)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by frasierbeams View Post
To JWK , if i raise to 1080 I cant realistically fold on the flop when the ace hits - I have invested 2/3 of my stack , folding is not an option . Yes I know this is a league game but still .

I have seen you reply to many posts here where you asking players why they have 1/3 or 2/3 of their stacking stack left at certain points - so are you advising raising to 1080 then folding the flop because of the ace , and leave yourself short stacked .

ALthough your feedback is appreciated I do believe it is inconsistent .

I actually agree with you here with one caveat.

If you were never going to fold that last 420 chips no matter what flopped then you needed to just shove over the villain's raise pre-flop. Of the four options before us here pre---standard raise,shove,call or fold---the one I would be least inclined to take is standard raise. In a league game even calling or folding are more palatable than standard raising here,simply because we've committed ourselves and not used our fold equity to it's fullest advantage at the same time.

That's a recipe for disaster in any format.
 
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Fri Apr 26, 2013, 08:56 PM
(#11)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Quote:
Originally Posted by frasierbeams View Post
To JWK , if i raise to 1080 I cant realistically fold on the flop when the ace hits - I have invested 2/3 of my stack , folding is not an option . Yes I know this is a league game but still .

I have seen you reply to many posts here where you asking players why they have 1/3 or 2/3 of their stacking stack left at certain points - so are you advising raising to 1080 then folding the flop because of the ace , and leave yourself short stacked .

ALthough your feedback is appreciated I do believe it is inconsistent .
if this is the case you should shove or fold pre flop.


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

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