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AKs 2NL

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AKs 2NL - Fri Apr 26, 2013, 02:12 PM
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mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
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Should i be re raising pre the 3 better was a good tag who obviously thought i was stealing his bb and decided to 4 bet light and got lucky flopping two pair i hit TPTK and call a raise on the flop but should i be calling the turn with TPTK and a flush draw?

Last edited by mike2198; Fri Apr 26, 2013 at 02:15 PM..
 
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Fri Apr 26, 2013, 03:06 PM
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ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
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Firstly, your iso-raise should be to at least 8c and possibly 10c, because you want to get value while you're ahead of the limper's range, and also make it a mistake for him (or the big blind) to call. I'd go with 9c or 10c, because you'll be in the worst position post-flop, and if the short-stack calls, the stack to pot ratio will be smaller, so you can commit with any pair or draw quite easily.

As played, your raise to 6c looks fairly weak, so the BB tries squeezing you. Although he'll generally have a big hand, once the shorty calls there is so much money in the pot that you should just go all in. Shoving will provide the most fold equity (to get the BB out of the way if he has junk; he also might fold JJ or QQ, because you're repping KK+) and isolate the shorty, who will be committed to calling off his stack. Even if the BB has AK/JJ+, the dead money in the pot provides an overlay, so you're not making a mistake by getting it in with 40% equity.
Just calling causes that same old problem you keep finding yourself in: playing a bloated pot, out of position, with no pair. If you miss the flop (which you'll do 70% of the time), you just wasted 24c.

So get it in as a 4-bet and start printing money.


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Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Fri Apr 26, 2013 at 03:09 PM..
 
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Fri Apr 26, 2013, 03:32 PM
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The all in fold equity makes sense but what if he did have pocket qq plus, yh my 3bb was my mistake i was running 4 tables and wasn't paying enough attention to what had previously gone on which was probably why i got 4 betted in the 1st place, but lets say i did raise 4bb and villain raised to 24c and i went all in, id become unstuck if he had pockets, the limper was a fish who would call any bet with any cards so if he did fold i would of made a nice profit but are you telling me i should be trying a steal vs a tag with AK? would 30c here and there make up for when i get caught by aces or kings
 
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Fri Apr 26, 2013, 03:36 PM
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Since: Jan 2013
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was just looking at my profits and im down by a dollar with 1 pairs, thats got to be a massive leak, its all the time i get caught out with pockets doing all that damage and the hand above lol, i would of folded that TPTK but i couldnt resist with that flush draw there aswell
 
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Fri Apr 26, 2013, 04:16 PM
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ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
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Let's assume that you shove your AK, the BB has QQ and calls and the shorty folds (this last bit is unlikely, but it makes the maths simpler).
When you shove, you'd contributing your remaining 1.57. The pot already contains 54c. The final pot will be 54c (dead money) + 1.57 (your additional chips for the shove) + 1.33 (the amount the BB has to call) = $3.44

So the amount of equity you need for this to be a profitable play (when the BB calls) is 1.57/3.44 = 45%

Against QQ, AK has 43% equity, so you'd lose a couple of cents on average if the action played out as described.

But this math doesn't factor in all the times that the BB folds. When he dumps his hand, you gain a share of his equity. If the shorty also folds, you gain the entire pot.

There's a general rule in poker that if you have a hand or draw with 45% equity of more, but you have some fold equity, and there's plenty of money in the pot already, then shoving is a good play. Villains will fold some of the time, so you win the whole pot, and when they call you still win almost half the time.

You should definitely be stealing with AK, in general and in this particular spot. If the BB was much nittier, and only 3-bets KK+, then you can fold to his 3-bet to minimise your losses. But when there's a ton of dead money in the middle, you should do your best to try and win it. Going all in (especially as you only have 80bb) is the best way to maximise fold equity and collect the money. You're also guaranteed to see all 5 cards when called, so your hand has two more chances to make TPTK than it would when you just call and see a flop. (The chance of making a pair is about 30% on the flop, but 50% by the river).

As it happens, villain was restealing very light, with A2. He'd normally insta-muck that to a shove, but if he calls you have 74% equity against him. You're almost certainly crushing the limper's range, and flipping (with a low pair) at worst.

Quote:
just looking at my profits and im down by a dollar with 1 pairs, thats got to be a massive leak
If you're referring to showdown winnings/losses, it's not a big surprise. Everyone loses money at showdown if all they have is one pair, because to have a showdown, villain has to have a hand. You'll win a few pots with one pair at showdown, but also lose a lot too, with the overall winnings being negative. Just how big a leak really depends on how you play your one pair hands. Some people just can't let go of QQ on Axxxx and will bet/call on 3 streets, which is stupid, frankly. More commonly, you have TPTK and bet 2 or 3 streets, but a villain sucks out a random two pairs/trips/straight on the river, and you get great pot odds to call. Sometimes, a bit of pot-controlling is required with TPTK, so you might check behind in position on the turn, so if you're beat, you at least mitigate the losses.
Learning to fold one pair is a crucial money-saving skill, but you also have to maximise value when you're sure it's the best hand, to make up for the occasional losses. In the long run, you'll lose money at showdown with one pair, but you'll make a lot of money with one pair when it doesn't go to showdown, because villain folds the flop, turn or river.

On the hand above, you're pot-committed on the flop. It's a 3-bet pot and you have TPTK. The stack to pot ratio is 2:1 (you only have 2 pot-sized bets in your stack). If you're not willing to get your money in there, then you're crazy. The flush draw gives you more outs, but I'm stacking off here on anything but a jack (because AJ would have sucked out as well). Villain might have AQ or QQ, but you've invested far too much of your stack to even consider folding on the flop or turn. I mean, imagine if you folded the turn and villain showed AJ or KK? (He's just as committed to stacking off with those hands as you are with yours).


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Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Fri Apr 26, 2013 at 04:21 PM..
 
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Fri Apr 26, 2013, 05:12 PM
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Il have to start playing by pot odds and that but normally when fish get all in they have you beat, vs good players though they will try and get you off better hands which is why il be more likely to call big pots when im not 100% im ahead, i put him on a set but i called because i knew he was capable of bluffing big and because of that flush draw being there.
 
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Fri Apr 26, 2013, 05:37 PM
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ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
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Since 3-bets at 2NL tend to represent AK or QQ, it's helpful to play about with Equilab/Pokerstove to see how well your hand does against that range.
e.g. AKo vs a range of QQ+/AKs/AK has 39% equity. QQ vs that range has 40%, AKs has 42%, KK has 57%.
Hands like AQ and JJ are crushed though: AQ has 24%, JJ 36%. That's why I'm nearly always folding AQ and JJ (or worse) to a 3-bet, but often continuing (usually with a 4-bet) with AK and QQ+.

The pot odds thing is difficult to work out on the fly when you're mult-tabling, so I just look at a villain's stats and stack size, notice the positions we're in, and see how much dead money is in the pot.
If villain is a nit, then I can fold QQ and AK. If he's looser, and the effective stack is less than 100bb, you're never making a big mistake by going all in pre with this range. If you happen to see a flop in a 3-bet pot 100bb deep or less, then you should definitely commit on the flop with you have TPTK or an overpair.
In fact, you should only consider folding top pair post flop in single-raised pots, where there's less than 20bb in the pot on the flop. (You can fold AK on A74 or AA on Q95 in a single-raised pot when your c-bet gets raised, because villain can definitely have a set with a small pair. In a 3-bet pot, villain will hardly ever have a hand like 44 or 55, because those are obvi-folds to a 3-bet).
The post-flop line villain took in this hand does not have to be a monster. He was lucky to make two pair, but he'd be getting it in on the turn with just his ace. It would be stupid to 3-bet A2 if he's not going to commit once he makes a pair. You'll make money against this guy's range by shoving over his c-bet when you hit the flop, because you're crushing all the worse aces.


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Fri Apr 26, 2013, 06:26 PM
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Since: Jan 2013
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This is where i lose my money but i can t just check and look weak to all these regs
 
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Fri Apr 26, 2013, 07:49 PM
(#9)
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Since: Oct 2011
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This guy is not a reg. His pre-flop and post-flop bet-sizing is really fishy. He even floated the flop OOP.

You opened in EP and villain in the SB re-raised, but his 3-bet size is way too small. It's just a minraise. While he could have you in terrible shape with KK+ and he wants action, he can also be doing this with random pairs and Broadways.
Since he's in the blinds, you have position on him, so can just call and keep the pot small if you like, but 4-betting is good too if you think he folds often or will call with worse than AK.
C-Betting the flop is standard, but I'm usually shutting down when he calls, because 99 has a set and there are a bunch of overpairs in his range too. The 8 isn't great for you either, because he might have floated with 88 or 98s. I'm definitely calling his pathetic 50c bet on the river. "Weak beat = weak hand". You have "nut air" with AK high, which will be good fairly often, and the pot odds are a ridiculous 8:1 (419 in pot, 50 to call), meaning you break even if you have the best hand 1 in 9 times. Since this guy is bluffing at least that often, it's an easy call.


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Sat Apr 27, 2013, 07:10 AM
(#10)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
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hehe Arty you dont miss anything yh i should be giving you more imformation on these hands they were all regs on that table except the guy i got in the pot with which was why i was on that table even though i shouldn't be lol.

Im guessing you think my c bet was really bad then i was hoping for him to fold but i was pretty sure he wouldn't but at the same time i knew if i never betted then he would have shoved all in and i wanted to see a showdown that 50c he put in on the river made me think im ahead with AK and i was thinking of re raising but decided against it.

EDIT just realized you said that cbet was standard there, i thought so

Last edited by mike2198; Sat Apr 27, 2013 at 07:17 AM..
 

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