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to call or not to call

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to call or not to call - Sun Apr 28, 2013, 04:08 PM
(#1)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485


seen as he was ultra tight and when he called my 3bet he must have JJ plus, but seen as he never raised me again i was thinking more like jj and qq so when the flop came im thinking he made his set but then i asked myself why did he shove the flop.

What do you think why would a good player shove here only AA and JJ was beating my hand, he knows im not a calling station so im thinking he just bluffed me with AK, he got up and left the table after this aswel im thinking he felt extra lucky and left while hes ahead lol
 
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Sun Apr 28, 2013, 07:07 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
How tight was he exactly? It really helps if you provide stats and any relevant notes/reads.

I doubt he has AA here, because it would be standard to 4-bet when out of position with this stack depth. On the flop his check raise might be for pure fat value or it might be a semi-bluff with AK/AQdd for the NFD. He might even be going crazy with AJ or TT, hoping you have AK.

If his range is strictly QQ/JJ, then you're still winning, because there are more combos of QQ available (6) than jacks (3). It's pretty high variance to call here with deep stacks, but if he has any bluffs in his range, you're crushing him, with over 65% equity, so should call.


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Mon Apr 29, 2013, 11:34 AM
(#3)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Was like 10 tops not exactly sure now though every time he went to showdown he had the goods he never c betted unless he had something i could take most pots off him from position, like i said when he just flat called he could of had TT JJ QQ AK maybe AQ he knew i was tight and my 3bet was low on this table because there was a lag on it so i tightened up more, so i dont think he would of had AQ AJ or even TT

So im thinking he had either JJ AK or QQ, if he just raised my c bet on that flop i would of called but i would think hes more likely to have the set then but that shove was suspicious if he did have a set there's noway would he do that surely, he had no read on me to make him think hes gonna get payed off if he shoves it all in, i don't think a player like him would shove with AK to to get back those chips he put in the pot so he probably had QQ, which is why i shouldn't be playing with $5 stacks yet had that been $2 to call i would have had a look because it was all to suspicious, but maybe he thought i would think it looked suspicious and call i don't know its one of those things
 
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Mon Apr 29, 2013, 11:46 AM
(#4)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
When you dug out this hand from your tracker database, you could use the tracker's built-in replayer. If you replay the hand, all of villain's HUD stats will be displayed, so you'd be able to provide VPIP/PFR C-bet% and AF and stuff like that.
Players tend to be habitual in the way they play particular hands post-flop, which is why it's crucial to take notes on "weird" actions, or what happened when there was a big pot. Some players always check-raise all in when they flop a set, whether it makes sense to us or not. Others always slowplay sets. Some never raise with strong draws. Others always do. Having notes on this habitual behaviour can save you a ton of money.
If this had been with $2 100bb starting stacks, then it's an obvi-call on the flop, because you'd have an overpair and a low stack to pot ratio. With deeper stacks it's trickier. I'm probably folding as I hate making big calls without notes/reads. If you really think he has QQ, then you should be calling every time, because you are absolutely crushing that hand. It has 2 outs, so about 8% equity against you, after all.


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