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5NL zoom: Bet river for value?

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5NL zoom: Bet river for value? - Mon Apr 29, 2013, 03:28 PM
(#1)
PokerIggy's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 214


No stats on villain.

MP opens and I call the preflop with my PP. Then the SB raises and MP folds. We are about 200 bb deep so I call the other 35ct to see a flop. I guess this is pretty standard.

I put him on AK, AQ (maybe AJ, KQ?), JJ+.

I hit my set on the flop and he bets out half the pot. Here I started to doubt about how to continue. I think I've the best hand most of the times and he could be on a draw so I raise his bet, but I didn't wanted to get committed to the pot so I almost minraised him (I'm usually not a big fan of this, but I didn't know a good amount to bet and wanted to see hus reaction on a raise). He decided to just call.

So he could definitely have an overpair or a FD/SD and maybe TPTK or so.

He decided to check the turn. So maybe he decided to play some pot control here and so I bet about 2/3 of the pot and he calls.

So his range is unchanged when we go to the river.

Again he decided to check. Now how do we continue? Do we go for three streets of value? So to prevent a difficult decision when he shoves my bet I checked behind. I also think that he would have folded any worse hands and only call (or shove) with better. However after reviewing this hand I'm actually not so sure anymore. So what should I have done and why?
 
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Mon Apr 29, 2013, 03:46 PM
(#2)
TommyGun369's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 340
Wau, that is one of the tightest checks I have ever seen
The villain did not show any exceptional strength by his bet call, check call, check line so what do you think he has? I would say that since this is 5NL he can show up with a hand as weak as TT. However his most likely hands should be QQ,KK,AA or maybe AJ. I am shoving the river with KK+ always and against any villain. Do you really think he would take this line with a hand better than yours and miss out on a ton of value against possible draws you could have on that flop?? The value shove on the river is nowhere near to be even considered thin. A thin value shove would be with a hand like QQ or AJ which you should just call behind and not raise the flop anyway.

You call with a hand like 55 pre because of your implied odds when you believe your opponent is strong. You are aiming to get his stack and you did not even get 100BB. The moral of the story: When in doubt shove! See? I have learned something from the live trainings

Last edited by TommyGun369; Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 03:48 PM..
 
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Mon Apr 29, 2013, 03:48 PM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
I think this hand is pretty straightforward actually.

Villain made a cold 3-bet from the blinds. While at 10NL and higher, you'll find some villains squeezing with relatively weak holdings, at 5NL the cold 3-bet represents a strong value hand. I'd be putting villain on AJ at worst. AK is his most likely holding, but big pairs make up a significant chunk of his range.

Since you're both deep, the implied odds of set-mining to win a stack are definitely there.
The flop is perfect for you. The only hand that beats you is JJ, and you can take QQ+ to Valuetown. Villain only bets half pot, so I think he'll have AK more often than an overpair (which would often bet a little bigger), but I'm still raising for value. Since you should be trying to win a whole stack, I think your flop raise should be bigger. $1.30 is barely more than a minraise. While that might get called by a curious AK that puts you on a bluff, I'd go with something like 1.70 or 1.80 (3x the villain's bet) and I'm committed to stacking off. Villain will often get it in w/ QQ+.
Villain just flats the flop raise and checks to you on the turn, which is a complete blank. I like your bet size here, because it sets up an obvi-shove on the river.

Speaking of obvi-shoves, why are you NOT jamming the river? The 6c is another blank. The pot is over $8 and you have $5 behind. You are literally only losing to JJ and will get called by QQ+ almost always. You've gotta go all in for big fat value here.

If you're going to go set-mining in 3-bet pots, then you HAVE to at least try to win a whole stack when you hit. Otherwise, you're throwing your money away by calling 50c and folding on the flop when you miss. When you finally hit your 2-outer on the flop, you need to get paid the max.


Bracelet Winner

Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Mon Apr 29, 2013 at 03:52 PM..
 
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Mon Apr 29, 2013, 04:39 PM
(#4)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
I would of folded them 5s if the 1st raiser was tight and definitely folded that 3bet, if you call 50c pre with 5s on the button every time you got them im sure you would make a loss in the long run.
 
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Mon Apr 29, 2013, 05:39 PM
(#5)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
Implied odds, Mike, implied odds. He has to call 35c for a potential profit of $10.13 (money in pot + effective stack after the call). If potential winnings are greater than 15 times the price of calling, then set-mining is a Go.
It would be profitable to set-mine here if potential winnings were $5.25 (15 * 35c), but we're expecting to often win almost double that amount. We're actually getting implied odds of almost 29 to 1. This is a very easy call, because the risk is very small in relation to the massive potential reward.

I'll take a detailed look at set-mining on my blog in due course, but you saw on your "hand at showdown" chart just how profitable making three of a kind is, didn't you? Set-mining is my bread and butter at 2NL/5NL.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Wed May 01, 2013, 08:58 AM
(#6)
PokerIggy's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 214
@ArtySmokesPS, @TommyGun369: Yeah you're both right. I should have gone for his whole stack. PF it was my itention to set mine and go for his stack, but then I hassitated on the river and made the "safe" decision. It's all so easy when reviewing a hand afterwards He played his hand as if he had QQ+ so because of the board I should have definitely shoved and hoped for a call. Arggg, next time!!

Tnx!
 
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Thu May 02, 2013, 02:26 PM
(#7)
TommyGun369's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 340
I would advise you to go and try to play for stacks when you hit your set as default line. Of course it is not always correct but that depends heavily on the board texture. More times than not though, a set is too strong to play cautiously and not put the money in. Microstakes are full of players willing to pay you off with a super wide range of hands and 95% of them are totally unable to fold top pair or an overpair to the board. Use this to your advantage and VALUE BET, VALUE BET, VALUE BET!!! Learn how to setmine properly and your win rate will improve significantly
 
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reply - Thu May 02, 2013, 05:56 PM
(#8)
glenn161274's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 146
To prevent a difficult decision, is why you did not bet ? there is no difficult decision we have a less than a full pot bet on the river so i would be shoving here 100%. The only hand that got there is 6 7 which would have been a double straight draw but he has that almost never. The check on the river is our opponent trying for some pot control but it is a little too late for that as he led on the flop and turn. I think with the way he played his hand we are good almost every time in this spot, so i am getting my value as this is vital in making us a profitable player, i liked the way you played the hand until the river but the mistake in not getting the value on the river i think is really bad and will hurt our profits in the long run, as we do not get such a great chance of getting our stacks in on alot of hands. I know some players could fold there over pair to a shove but i know alot who would call as well but to do nothing and just check i think in this situation is criminal..

Last edited by glenn161274; Thu May 02, 2013 at 05:57 PM.. Reason: read better
 
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Fri May 03, 2013, 04:05 AM
(#9)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hey PokerIggy, I think you helped villain play better than you by raising flop so small and checking back river
I don't have anything to comment on what has been said about set-mining and how this hand played out. BUT I'd like to see what you guys think of villain's hand.

1. I think his preflop Squeeze is small; I would have made it 0.6
2. I'd then cbet something like 0.9 into 1.4
3. Would you call a flop raise if PokerIggy made it 3x our bet? re-raise yourself? I think I would fold flop raise against someone with Agg:1 or 2. But If we call, the pot would be 6.8 and PokerIggy would have 6.52 remaining
4. But what would someone who flatted twice raise with on such a flop?
4. What's your plan on the turn?
 

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