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16NL 6-Max Set River Action

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16NL 6-Max Set River Action - Wed May 01, 2013, 07:37 AM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
V1 was 34/10, AF 4.0 over 73 hands. Flop CB: 100%(3), Flop donkbet: 83%(6), CO Stl: 0%(10)
So he likes to take initiative OTF, but not related to this hand.

V4 19/15, AF 2.8 over 6k hands. WTSD: 26%, W$SD: 49%, BB coldcall: 11%, 3bet: 8.8%, Sqz: 9%, F3B: 21%, BB 3Bet: 10%
Flop CB: 57%, Flop FCB%: 61%, Turn FCB: 32%(19), River FCB: 75%(4)
I'm not sure what stats to include since this is a multiway pot and he's not the PFR, pls let me know if you need other stats.
He's a reg, but noted him limping several times. Despite limping, he's aggro with his 3bets and squeezes, doing so with hands like Ax and connectors.
We had some battles in 3bet pots before and he's sticky. No history of me being stacked off by him (I would have noted it down)



So as played we bet 2 streets for value multiway. Lower sets like 44, 77, 99, Flush draws, Straight draws like 98 could call us. 88, 87 might call OTF I'm not sure. I see AT, JT, T9, T8, overpairs JJ+ calling 2 streets as well.

With all the offsuit hands, against { JJ+, 99-77, 44, ATs, JTs, T8s+, 98s, 87s, ATo, T9o, 98o, 87o }, we're each 33% OTR to win.
Excluding offsuit hands { JJ+, 99-77, 44, ATs, JTs, T8s+, 98s, 87s }, we're 52% OTR while they're each 23%.

OTR it's an really ugly spot for us. Should we just go all in for max value or are there better lines: Check-call, Check-Raise, Check-fold?

I'm not sure if checking can induce overpairs, 1 and 2 pair hands to bet since the board became wet OTR. We miss out value from those hands, so I dived straight in. +EV move? Thanks!
 
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Wed May 01, 2013, 12:34 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Hi TANW,

First I don't mind 3-betting for value here preflop... V1 min-raising over a limp is pretty weak-sauce, I doubt he's got much of a real hand. And he seems like he may call wide. the idea of flatting to keep the bad UTG limper in has some merit, but in this case I don't like it so much. V1 is also a bad player, iso'ing him has value. If we flat the BB should call super wide, and the limper will obviously call, so we'll end up in a 4 way pot with the worst absolute and relative position and 2 bad players in the mix, forcing us to play basically straight forward post flop and almost set mining. That's fine with 33 but with TT if we can iso V1 we can win sometimes unimproved and even get undue action. Like on a 7 high flop he's probably stacking off 88/99/A7, and that's part of the genre of hands I'd expect him to min-raise/call pre with.

OTF given our poor relative position I think leading out here is perfect, and I like your sizing.

Turn play also standard, well done.

River I don't like the shove tbh. Think about the statement "Should we just go all in for max value"... what are you getting value from? I think you should revisit your range assessments and ask yourself if those holdings would play the hand this way. For example, you have smaller sets in their ranges but would someone really play a set of 4's by calling twice in a multi-way drawy pot? Especially with both villains being aggro post flop in general.

I think shoving it's really hard to get called by non-straights on this board. I would check and re-evaluate, it's probably a fold to V4 if he shoves, call V1 if he shoves, and call most non-shoves imo.


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Thu May 02, 2013, 01:31 AM
(#3)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Hi Dave, I think I was too carried away hoping worse can call. You're right that sets would have raised OTF or OTT. So I guess the plan of check-calling, hoping worse will bet, is the best. V4 showed up with 8h3h. 3betting preflop would have filtered this hand. Thanks!
 
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Thu May 02, 2013, 10:09 AM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAwesomeNW View Post
So I guess the plan of check-calling, hoping worse will bet, is the best. V4 showed up with 8h3h.
That's why I suggested check-folding to him. If he bets 2nd to act with the bad player behind him (who can easily have an 8 and who could make weird calls as well) in a 3 way pot, I think he'll turn over the straight pretty much all the time since it seems a pretty terrible spot for him to try bluffing.


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