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16NL 6-Max Multiway Overpair

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16NL 6-Max Multiway Overpair - Fri May 03, 2013, 12:32 AM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
V2's 76/10, AF 2.0 over 42 hands. Flop FCB: 33%(3), Flop Donkbet: 100%(6), Donkbet-Fold: 0%(3)



I raised his donkbet multi-way and ready to fold to a reraise from anyone. V2 could have 4x, sets, 55+, 5x, maybe even Ax donking with a gutshot.

OTT should we bet-fold or check behind? If we bet here, it's almost an all-in OTR. Heads-up with him, I would probably have gone for 3 streets of value. But here, I was afraid of 4x, 65, A5 slowplay flatting behind (though a second 4 appeared) since it was a 5-way pot. Opted checking for pot control and so that he can have a chance to bluff the River, hoping to call a reasonable River size bet. But, we're letting 5x have a free card

River he checked, I bet-fold for value since he can have a busted draw or 55+.

Which do you think is a better line? Bet-bet-check, bet-bet-bet, or as played bet-check-bet.

Last edited by TheAwesomeNW; Fri May 03, 2013 at 01:03 AM..
 
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Fri May 03, 2013, 04:20 AM
(#2)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hey Awesome,

I think I would have bet the turn because V2 can have more Ax in his hands than 5x unless he has something like 65 or 75 or 55. Also his donk sizing is really ridiculous and I think it means he wants to see a turn card as cheaply as possible so I'd take away sets from his range, 55, A5, 65, A4 as imo these hands would not mind playing a bigger pot and would bet bigger to deny the rest of the field from drawing cheaply.

Going back to the flop raise, maybe there would be another line to take by flatting his silly donk bet so that you can see the action after you that way if it's raised you can fold and cost yourself less. And if the turn does not improve the board then you can raise to a second donk or lead yourself since players will be less inclined to draw on the turn.

Let's see what the hand analyzer's have to say
 
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Fri May 03, 2013, 05:56 AM
(#3)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
Hey ANW,

I'm also in the turn betting camp here. There's enough room for a 1/2 pot bet imo and you can get value from worse. Betting also protects you from close or tough river decisions.

On the flop I would probably raise a little smaller just for the sake of initiative and leaving more room to maneuver.


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Fri May 03, 2013, 08:28 AM
(#4)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Thanks guys! I guess I was too scared of him having 4x since it's a 5way pot. Makes sense that we should charge 5x and worse hands OTT... He called my River bet with 5s3s. Yikes can't believe I gave him infinite odds to draw the Turn!
 
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Fri May 03, 2013, 08:54 AM
(#5)
beatdiggs's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1
Hey ANW,

A few questions come to mind right from the start of this hand.

1. What is the table dynamic? The fact that you raised pre UTG with that many callers would suggest that everyone is a calling station???

2. What are your stats? Again, with a UTG pre-flop raise and with that many callers would suggest that no one is respecting your pre-flop raise because you are a little on the loose-aggro side of the spectrum? Not sure, but that's what I would think. Again, the table dynamic would be a factor in this...

In regards to the villain, although 42 hands is not enough of a sample for an accurate read on your opponent, I think it's pretty obvious this person is a calling station; therefore, extracting value is the main objective given the appropriate board texture.

On the flop, because of your raise pre, and given the board texture, the donk bet could mean that he thinks it completely missed your range and he is probably trying to take it down cheap. The fact that he called your raise doesn't surprise me because he is a calling station. And because he is a calling station, he probably likes to chase draws and the donk bet is probably just a cheap way for him to see another card like geoVARTA stated.

On the turn, if he had anything like a set preflop(which means he either has quads or a boat now), trips or a straight, he would have probably donked the turn as well to induce another raise. The fact that the four on the turn doesn't complete a straight for his Ax, 5x hands (given his VPIP, this is very much in his range!), I would say your 9s are still good here and a v-bet would be appropriate to get value from his missed draws. I agree with PSO-xflixx in that a half-pot bet would be enough. If he check-raises you here, I would be very weary as most fish do this when they have the nuts.

On the river, you have to ask yourself "If I bet, will I get worse hands to call?" The 10 of clubs is not a good card for you because it brings an overcard that could hit a lot of his range (again, being that it's so wiiiide) and it also completes a backdoor flush draw; none of which you can beat. The only hands you beat with your 9s are hands like 55-88, busted draws, ace high, , 3x. So, essentially what you have is a showdown hand and a check would be the safe bet even though you could be missing out on some very thin value. If he does have a monster and is slowplaying it (like most calling stations like to do), you could be thankful that you got to showdown a lot cheaper than by betting the river and getting check-raised.

I hope that makes sense...
 
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Fri May 03, 2013, 10:23 AM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by beatdiggs View Post
On the river, you have to ask yourself "If I bet, will I get worse hands to call?" The 10 of clubs is not a good card for you because it brings an overcard that could hit a lot of his range (again, being that it's so wiiiide) and it also completes a backdoor flush draw; none of which you can beat. The only hands you beat with your 9s are hands like 55-88, busted draws, ace high, , 3x. So, essentially what you have is a showdown hand and a check would be the safe bet even though you could be missing out on some very thin value. If he does have a monster and is slowplaying it (like most calling stations like to do), you could be thankful that you got to showdown a lot cheaper than by betting the river and getting check-raised.

I hope that makes sense...
Hi,

I like your analysis for early streets, but disagree on the river, I would always be value betting here. Granted, I am a thin value bettor, but in this spot it seems to be leaving too much money on the table checking down.

One of the things here is that you've labeled this villain a calling station, and against a station we should basically always be bet/folding this river imo as they will call with all worse pairs and maybe as light as ace high, that's what stations do. If they check-raise, it's a very easy fold. But it seems to me we will get called by worse way more often than running into a better hand against this particular villain.

Also, the ten is not really a scary card imo, he's probably not playing too many combos of T2-T5 (even as loose as he seems, he's likely only playing these hands suited), and not donk/calling the flop with random big card tens like JT. So it helps AT, and the board connections that happened to go back door flush, but that is a relatively small part of his large range combinatorically. Additionally, this villain is not a true calling station... text book stations are very passive in general unless they have a monster, but this guy is aggressive post flop (donked into a preflop raiser 6 times in 6 opportunities is totally un-station like). So I tend to agree with the OP, if the ten did beat us it's probable that at least some of the time, he'd have let us know by leading out.

Betting the river is profitable if, when we get called, we'll be good more than 50% of the time. We have to factor in the possibility of getting check-raised too but I think that chance is low for reasons stated above, and it's an easy fold if we do imo. But the equation is:

Called+good > (called+not good) + (check/raised)

Versus such a loose villain who's range rates to be mostly weaker 1 pair hands when he checks this river to us, and who will have strong tendencies to pay off (especially how this hand played out with us checking back the turn), I think called+good pretty far outweighs the right side of the equation, imo.


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