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NL 25 Zoom: JJ, bet turn or river for value?

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NL 25 Zoom: JJ, bet turn or river for value? - Sat May 04, 2013, 04:05 AM
(#1)
almigthybald's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 94
Villain is a russian with VP 24/ PFR 18 /3B 7,5 /F3B 25 /CB 60/ FCB 0 / AG 1,9 over 140 hands



I think my line is ok and we are probably beat on the river vs a set of eigths or some unexpected hand like 97s or a slowplayed monster. But i am still debating, if it might be better to bet the turn instead of the river here, even though there should not be a lot of draws in villains range. I think the problem with my bet check bet line is that our range is pretty obviously capped since we would bet every hand better than QQ on the turn. Not sure if this is already exploited by players on NL 25 Zoom.

Advantage of the bet check bet line is of course that we might get called lighter (78 and 99,TT) since it looks more bluffy and we dont have an awfully small stacksize on the river and still can find a fold.
 
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Sat May 04, 2013, 05:04 AM
(#2)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi Mighty,
Interesting spot, I must say.

First, I love how you put the read on your opponent: "Villain is a Russian" lol
With the given stats on villain 24/18/2; it looks like he is a descent player probably making a bit more calls than raising. Which is pretty confusing to me to put him on a range here.
Given his 3bet stat of 7.5, I wonder what he wouldn't have 3bet from the SB. Do you have any stats on his Sqz%?
I think AA-JJ, AK would be 3betting for value and his junk part would be squeezing for a bluff so I think he has some medium strength hand that would like to see a flop; I figure TT-22, KQs, QJs, AQ, AJ

But when you raise and he calls OOP, I think KQ/QJ/AJ should be folding and he'll continue with his PP (which imo I don't think its often profitable to call to set mine OOP when he needs to win atleast 22.5$ more on his call - I personally would only call if there was something like 50$ behind)

But he might call anyway and figure that your 3betting range is very narrow so his implied odds increase when he does hit his set and you have an overpair. Given that range, I actually like your line. Unless this guy is turning his hand into a bluff, I think he either had it OTF or just rivered a set.
 
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Sat May 04, 2013, 06:13 AM
(#3)
almigthybald's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 94
Hi Geo,

he squeezed 0/8 times so far. Think his range on the flop is pretty wide since he wanted to play a multiway pot vs MP and CO so I would put a lot of speculativ hands like suited connectors in his range in addition to your assignend range for him. Agree with your fourbet range for him.



I discussed the hand in my 2p2 studygroup and right now I think there are four different kinds of opponents we have to diffentiate if we choose our line.

vs fish we should bet the river small

vs reg that is pretty passive to standard we can river bet small for value

vs reg that is super aggressive we can bet river small and call his shove since he is repping so little

vs reg that is capable of advanced moves and standard aggressive we should check back the river since our range is capped and we cant call if he decides to bluff raise

but still not sure where to put this guy, so I am pretty undecided between my bet on the river or check back. But I lean towards my bet and prefer it to a turn bet by now. But not completely sure.
 
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Sat May 04, 2013, 03:34 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Hi bald,

If ever I were going to hero 2nd pair (yes I do sometimes), this is the spot.

The villain stats seem at least somewhat competent, so I would make the assumption he is in fact ranging us. The way we played this hand our holding is basically face up vs any decent hand reader as TT-QQ which is going for thin value with this small river bet. And we look like we've left ourselves room to fold to a check-raise jam as well. A competent 25nl player may well be capable of turning a small pair into a bluff here since it seems like we are likely to fold our entire range given the action sequence. Or have been giving up ace high but now thinks he can profitably attempt to take the pot away.

I'm not terribly concerned about 97 or sets as I doubt he's calling pre with 97 (maybe he calls initially with 97s sometimes thinking to see a flop 3 way, but calling our big 3b OOP seems quite spewy). And his line would be quite strange for sets to take, not raising the flop, or leading river after the turn checks through... he should generally lead sets on the river for value against all our bluff catchers, and when we don't barrel a K turn it is most likely because we have a hand with showdown value. For the same reason he should bet the river with a king if he had peeled flop with one.

So, given that our hand is fairly face up, he should think we will fold often to this jam, and it seems strange for him to have many of the hands that actually beat us, I would make the tough call here.

As an aside, and for sure it's not totally accurate but it does provide a nice visual, if we take a range assessment preflop of hands he would call with, here's what it might look like... Assuming he calls the preflop raise with ~ a % of hands similar to his own preflop raising range (18%), and then remove the top 7.5% that represents his 3b stat since he did not 3b, here's what that preflop range looks like:



Again this is certainly not totally accurate, but there are just so few hands in this range beating us and most of them would seem unlikely to take the line he did, which makes it less believable imo. That coupled with our line making us look bluffable, leads me to call.

As for your line, I actually prefer barreling the turn here. Again most of his range that check-calls flop is worse 1 pair hands and while a weak-loose player won't care about the K and a weak-tight one will be scared of it, a decent player will recognize this is a perfect barrel card for you if you don't have him beat to rep the K, and often call again. Then we can check down the river (doubt we get 3 streets from worse), or call if he leads a blank. If he check-raises the turn then we can let it go.


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