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25NL Zoom: AA tough river spot facing overbet

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25NL Zoom: AA tough river spot facing overbet - Sun May 05, 2013, 12:41 PM
(#1)
Alex_ALJ's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 2
Villain: VP 27/ PFR 20 / FCB 0(3) / RCB 33(3) AG 1.5 over 51 hands.



I felt like if I wear to look for hands in my database where people flatted a set on a monotone flop at 25NL I may not even find one. As for a flush I have the Ad blocker so he could have non nuted flushes but this player has shown in the very small sample that he is capable of raising cbets so I assume he would raise a decent part of his made flushes on the flop... thoughts?

Last edited by Alex_ALJ; Sun May 05, 2013 at 12:51 PM.. Reason: removed results
 
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Sun May 05, 2013, 01:36 PM
(#2)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Did he bust a draw and decide to jam the river? He maybe flopped a set and was worried about the flush but i guess you showed enough aggression to have the flush

He could of slow played 7s but i think he would raise the turn other than that he probably hit his full house with KK but wouldnt he 3 bet that pre flop im not sure i dont play 25nl.

Was i close?

Last edited by mike2198; Mon May 06, 2013 at 11:58 AM..
 
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Sun May 05, 2013, 01:42 PM
(#3)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Gah ... I can't even think about 25nl right now lol. 10nl's got me jumping through hoops, so I can't imagine what 25nl must be like ...
 
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Sun May 05, 2013, 05:10 PM
(#4)
iggyo's Avatar
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Posts: 171
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Mon May 06, 2013, 06:04 AM
(#5)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi Alex,

Gross spot indeed with the stack sizes!
We need to be good 34% of the time to make that call. But what sort of hands would shove the river?
I'm going to try to think through this one backwards;
Value:
.Kxd - I figure AK would 3bet pre, so KQ/KJ would call us preflop; but would they not just flat river bet considering the board (monotone flop + paired turn)?
.Sets: 33, 77, 55 (perhaps they should have raised OTF; but we can't assume he will with his 1.5 Agg)
.2p turned a boat: 75s
.the occasional straight flush: 6d4d (this one fits his line perfectly; nothing scares him and he wants you to draw to the NF to pay him off)
.made flush: I'd like to think these would raise OTF for value and protection against a naked Ad

Bluffs:
.The only hands I see him turning into a bluff are 44, 66 with maybe a diamond or something like 86s

Against a range of { 77-33, 86s, 75s, 6d4d, AKo, KcQd, KdQc, KdQh, KdQs, KhQd, KsQd, KcJd, KdJc, KdJh, KdJs, KhJd, KsJd } we have 73% equity but we are assuming different things when we include those hands in his range:

1. He is bad to raise the river with a Kx hand
2. He is bad to slow play his sets on a monotone flop
3. OR he is capable of bluffing with busted draws
4. He is LAG to call IP with 64s, 75s

What worries me is that he has an Agg of 1.5 and has called two streets and now jams OTR to good sizable bets; I hardly think anyone bluff shoves rivers especially on such boards.

Against his value hands: { 77, 55, 33, 75s, 64s, AcKd, AdKh, AdKs, AhKd, AsKd, KcQd, KdQc, KdQh, KdQs, KhQd, KsQd, KcJd, KdJc, KdJh, KdJs, KhJd, KsJd } we have 48% equity considering he is bad not to raise sets on this flop, and not 3bet AKo preflop and think his K is now good - which means we have to call.

BUT if all Kx would just flat rivers then we are losing 100% of the time to his value hands.

I think we should be folding.
 
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Mon May 06, 2013, 06:13 AM
(#6)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
By the way, I think an alternate line would be to c/c turn. But I'm not gonna indulge into that right now.
 
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Mon May 06, 2013, 10:44 AM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Hi Alex,

I think his line for flushes and boats doesn't make sense... I don't necessarily agree that he would raise sets and flushes on the flop, yes some would but some would not (and his raise c-bet stat isn't helpful yet, it's only 1 out of 3 times). But regardless, most of the time a player chooses not to raise the flop with those hand strengths it is either because they are a chronic flop slow player, or because they are overly scared of a monotone board and like to wait for a safe turn card... and in both cases they generally raise on the turn when it doesn't scare them. The board pairing should not scare a flush in the least since you have very few full houses in your range, and obviously a flopped set just got there. So basically, the only way it seems to me we are beat is if he did in fact slow play a set on the flop, perhaps waiting for a safe card, then decided to do it again when he filled as he no longer fears single diamonds. But I tend to agree with you that we won't see sets played this way too often.

The one thing that concerns me here is our bet sizing, when we bet the river so big it should be clear we have a hand that isn't concerned with the king coming, which makes shoving to get us off TT-QQ a bad idea since it's much less likely we have those holdings now. But maybe he can't figure that out. I generally bet less here to give pairs like A7, 44/66/88 an easier call. Although he could have chased a hand like KdQx and now pay the bigger bet, so it's fine.

In my experience when a villain reps a hand that beats me, but the line they took makes no sense for those hands on prior streets, there's a much higher probability they're bluffing. And I've seen this type of bluff a fair bit recently at 25nl and 50nl with a hand like 6d6x, where they realize they don't have good showdown value vs. a 3-barrel, but think most of our range won't call a shove (unless we have specifically KK or maybe AA). I wouldn't be surprised to see him turn over 66 or 44 with a diamond.

I would sigh and call, and make sure I take a note on the villain.


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Mon May 06, 2013, 01:17 PM
(#8)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
What did he have?
 
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Mon May 06, 2013, 01:23 PM
(#9)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
My guess is pocket 2's. Will so look like a legend when I am right here.
 
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Tue May 07, 2013, 08:18 AM
(#10)
Alex_ALJ's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 2
He hade 8-8d :p

Last edited by Alex_ALJ; Tue May 07, 2013 at 08:24 AM..
 
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Tue May 07, 2013, 08:30 AM
(#11)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
interesting note to take Guy with 1.5 Agg turns his hand into a bluff
 

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