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10NL - Do you make the call?

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10NL - Do you make the call? - Tue May 07, 2013, 07:01 AM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Villain unknown

 
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Tue May 07, 2013, 07:38 AM
(#2)
CrazYJohnnie's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 641
Vs unknown i call, if you are set vs set, thats just cooler. Tho i dont believe it, i believe with a set villain would minraise or smooth call or whatever. Most likely overpair or FD, anyway we are ahead.
 
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Tue May 07, 2013, 07:41 AM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,503
I'm calling. It's a massive overbet that could be for value or could be a semi-bluff with the NFD or some kind of combo, but I'm not folding a flopped set on this board at 10NL, even in a limped pot in which the villain might have a "big blind special" with 65.

There are only 6 combos of better sets, but there are a bunch of overpairs, several random two pair combos, plus a variety of flush draws. If villain is bad enough to check-shove TT-88 here (I presume he'd raise pre with JJ+), or go mental with A5s, you're printing money. The draws I've included in the equity simulation below are all nut flush draws, but I think he can also do this with hands like Kc 6c (combo gutter/FD) etc, so your equity against the total range is probably higher than 66%.

Board:
---- Equity Win Tie
Hero 65.85% 65.29% 0.56% { 33 }
Vill 34.15% 33.58% 0.56% { TT-77, 44, A4s, 74s-73s, 65s, 43s, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac2c, 74o-73o, 65o, 43o }


Bracelet Winner

Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Tue May 07, 2013 at 07:41 AM.. Reason: typos
 

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