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25NL - c/shove turn oppportunity?

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25NL - c/shove turn oppportunity? - Wed May 08, 2013, 04:19 PM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi guys,

I was wondering whether this would be a good opportunity for a turn check-shove after my flop donk bet gets raised.

Villain 11/7/2 (27 Hands)
Steal 22%
CO PFR 17%

Can't say too much about villain with that sample size, but he does look to be on the tighter side.

I donk bet because I felt that this is a kind of flop that he would check behind and at the same time we have TP + gutshot + BDFD

When he raises OTF I put him on sets, overpairs, and probably AJ. I guess he could have JT also for 2pair. Not sure if Q9 would be in his range.

He could be raising with KQ or 99 for a semi-bluff, but I think these would call more often than raise.

I call and the turn comes the Ad
now against a range of: { TT+, 88, AJs, JTs, AJo, JTo }
we have 35% equity which justifies a call as his bet OTT is giving us slightly over 2.5:1 BUT if we do call then we have to x/f when we miss OTR and if he checks behind our hand will not win that often, so do you see any fold equity to justify a x/shove OTT instead?

 
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Wed May 08, 2013, 05:00 PM
(#2)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Is that the sort of move you do up there with mid pair that takes some bollux to shove that hand even with the draw
 
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Thu May 09, 2013, 06:49 AM
(#3)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
I don't like donking the flop here, there aren't many bad turn cards for you as you hold a Q so even the worst turn cards will often give you a lot of equity. If it checks through you can often bet for value. As played I just call the turn I don't think you have any fold equity against his turn betting range (AA,JJ-TT,88,AJs,KQs,JTs,AJo,KQo,JTo) so call and look to scoop the pot when you hit a straight or flush.


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Last edited by Croyd93; Thu May 09, 2013 at 06:51 AM..
 
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Thu May 09, 2013, 11:09 AM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,487
(Head Trainer)
Hi Geo,

If you want to estimate fold equity apply combinatorics to your ranging. On the surface my gut says there's not much, but lets look at the range you're assigning:

{ TT+, 88, AJs, JTs, AJo, JTo }

I will start by saying I don't like that you forgot to put KQ in his range after mentioning it specifically that it might raise as a semi-bluff, which I agree it might, so I think we should add it here as well

Folding:
KK (6 combos)
QQ (3 combos)
Note: It is possible none of these combos exist to bet/fold to a check/shove by you... KK may check back the turn for example, and QQ has a double gutter and may bet/call or check back to take a free card.

Calling:
AA (3 combos)
JJ (1 combo)
TT (3 combos)
88 (3 combos)
AJ (6 combos)
JT (6 combos)
KQ (12 combos)

So he is folding to a check-raise jam at best 9/43 = 21% of the time, and at worst, 0%.

I would call here. The direct odds are right, plus there is some implied odds. You may not get paid if you make a straight, but the flush is back door so you will probably get paid on a small diamond river as he'll be naturally suspicious. And you could potentially bluff shove the 3 non-diamond 7's as you holding a 9 is totally credible the way this hand has played out. If the river is a blank, then yes you have to check/fold. So what? You don't have ot win every pot you play. We can profitably call the turn bet and that's better than stacking ourselves off bad any day.


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Thu May 09, 2013, 12:05 PM
(#5)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Thanks Dave, I figure against this kind of player we might not find the right fold equity since his range is tight but would you consider a c/shove line against someone that is looser and more aggressive perhaps or you like to stick to the default line?
 
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Thu May 09, 2013, 12:29 PM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,487
(Head Trainer)
How much looser and more aggressive?

I would suggest applying the same logic. It will be a more tedious task as the combos are so much more, but it could be worth the effort. Also keep in mind the more wild you make the opponent check/shoving may not be optimal any more. Like against an insane maniac who has a massive number of air combos relative to anything else, check-calling and allowing him to bluff off becomes better than check-shoving him off all his air that we beat anyway.


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