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25NL 6-Max River Ranging + Value

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25NL 6-Max River Ranging + Value - Thu May 09, 2013, 06:05 AM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
V6's a reg, having decent TAG stats 22/18 AF: 2.9 over 272 hands. EP PFR: 17%(36), Flop Cbet: 42%(12), Flop Fold Donkbet: 20%(5), Flop Raise Donkbet: 40%(5)

V4's a fish 42/18 AF: 2.2 over 82 hands.



We flopped the nuts, the flop lead was a misclick, supposed to be larger like 1.25 to 1.75 to charge flush draws, PPs, Tx. Fish who is likely to hold a T goes away.

Again we bet the Turn, expecting to get raised if he hit his flush. JJ+ which turned a flush draw will call this bet again.

River comes a 6. Thought that if we bet here, we're representing else nothing but a Tx. Decided to check back, giving him a chance to bet with worse like overpair or a slowplayed flush. Planned to check/call the River. If he did have a T we lose the minimum. But I feel by checking we're missing tons of value from worse.

He did bet according to plan, do you think we should ship it?

Should we be worried about him having a T in his hand from his UTG range? Based on him not raising the Flop, I feel it reduced the chances of him having it. All in all, on this River should we bet/call when he shove, bet/fold, check/call or check/raise??
 
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Thu May 09, 2013, 09:48 AM
(#2)
f1nlaion's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 64
Such a gross spot TANW!

First of all, to answer the question "He did bet according to plan, do you think we should ship it?"
This is under no circumstances a spot we can jam for value.

As far as the river line is concerned I don't like bet/calling nor bet/folding.
In general I don't like leading the river for sure, because we have shown strength on all 3 streets in a 3-way pot and I think we can only get called by better. A flush would need to herocall this river if we bet, an overpair is not calling there for sure and I don't see how a 6x would have reached the river.

As the hand was played, I might have to lean towards folding even though I feel this is kinda weak and this spot I think is quite close between fold/call. During the hand I might have made a crying call there.

It might be interesting to know what is his view of ur game on this river.
Because as u played it, ur hand looks a lot like a flush really. Since u r betting flop, turn and u check the river I don't think u have a ten in ur range.
Could u been doing that with a naked 7? - I don't think he expects u to do that either.

His range for betting on the river should be consisting of Ts, for a full house, and flushes(if he called the second barrel on the turn with an overpair I don't think he 'd turn it into a bluff).
So he either puts u on a flush which he has beat, or puts u on an overpair and he does that with a flush.
Dunno though, I think he would bet a bit less; going for thin value with the flush, not so big.

All in all, those are just ideas, I m not liking life in this spot.

Last edited by f1nlaion; Thu May 09, 2013 at 09:51 AM..
 
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Thu May 09, 2013, 10:43 AM
(#3)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
Hey NW,

once that you have lead out twice with initiative I would lead out OTR to prevent the PFR from checking back overpairs or flushes as the board gets scary.

If you know him as a superthin valuebettor or a very bad player you might go for a check/jam, but I doubt you can get too many calls from worse. Your hand is definitely good enough to x/c though once you check river and signal you might not actually be full here.


Live Trainer



 
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Thu May 09, 2013, 11:05 AM
(#4)
f1nlaion's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 64
Quote:
Originally Posted by PSO-xflixx View Post
once that you have lead out twice with initiative I would lead out OTR to prevent the PFR from checking back overpairs or flushes as the board gets scary.
we certainly don't want to see an overpair to check back this river; but would u expect a good player there to call us with an overpair?

I mean if we lead the river as well, our range looks a lot like T full, or at the least a flush. therefore I think he call only herocall there will a flush.
 
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Thu May 09, 2013, 12:12 PM
(#5)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by f1nlaion View Post
we certainly don't want to see an overpair to check back this river; but would u expect a good player there to call us with an overpair?

I mean if we lead the river as well, our range looks a lot like T full, or at the least a flush. therefore I think he call only herocall there will a flush.
We would definitely need more infos/reads/dynamics with this player to judge if he is a good, decent or rather weaker regular, so basically if NW feels he cannot get called by worse when he leads the question is can he be called by worse when villain bets and he jams? The other question is will villain bet worse often enough when we check so that checking > leading out? Such a decision stands and falls with the evaluation of how villain plays.

If this were a Zoom hand and I didnt have any reads besides stats I would always prefer betting > checking here.


Live Trainer



 
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Fri May 10, 2013, 12:32 AM
(#6)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Heys guys thanks! Yea it was kinda tough OTR. I don't have many reads on him. Feel that his AF of 2.9 may suggest that if we check to him OTR, he could be betting worse like overpairs + flushes. Hmm I have no idea if we bet OTR, can he call with worse, cos we're just repping the T. But yea we need more reads and info before determining if he can call with worse... Tricky... It's a reg table btw. Agree that our hand is strong enough to check/call OTR. Won't really consider check/folding here.

I flat it and he had AsTc, kinda unusual he had it UTG.
 

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