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25 NL - 6max Zoom: Value/Protection Bet with TPTK on river that completes FD?

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25 NL - 6max Zoom: Value/Protection Bet with TPTK on river that completes FD? - Fri May 10, 2013, 01:27 AM
(#1)
almigthybald's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 94
Hi,

only got 18 hands on the opponent, so pretty much readless. I probably checked the number of tables he played but cant remember now.



I think until river it is a pretty standard hand, but not sure if I should bet the river as well. I do get in this kind of spots quite a bit and I am always unsure if I should fire a third barrel.

I assigned a range to him with equilab for the river:



He might play his strong draws more aggressively or slowplay some sets but hard to assume correctly vs unknown. Against this range we have 46% equity. But does that mean we should check/fold? Main problem I see with check/fold is that he might bluff us of with his missed straight draws (TQs,T8s). The missed straight draws are 6 out of 25 combinations out of his range.

So how can I figure out the best river line here?
 
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Fri May 10, 2013, 12:40 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Hi bald,

As you say, it's pretty hard to figure as the best line depends on the villain type and with no reads, we are a bit lost.

My preferred lines are bet/fold or check/call. I would opt for check/call when I think I can't get 3 streets of value from worse anyway by betting, or when up against an aggro opponent who is capable of turning a showdown value hand into a bluff and raising a bet, or using the "obvious draw" (hearts) to bluff busted straights. Especially on this depth of money as if we bet the river he will have a nice stack size behind to bluff raise us, and we really don't want to call off this deep with 1 pair and no solid read.


No reads, I will generally bet/fold. He did call big flop and turn bets, so there could be a lot of J's in his range... I doubt a strong player will call us down for 3 streets with QJ readless but a bad player won't even think about folding top pair. So I like about $7.50-$8 and fold to a jam, but no problem with check-calling either on this depth of money as played.


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