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How often should you expect to have a hand with showdown value

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How often should you expect to have a hand with showdown value - Sat May 11, 2013, 08:43 AM
(#1)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
So i was just playing zoom poker 2nl and i was dealt

224 hands
I won a total of 43 hands 16 that would win at showdown, i had 21 steals and 6 folds to me by the turn.

I had a total of 16 hands that would win at showdown
5 of which i got to showdown and
11 that would win a showdown but got never got to showdown

So would you say 16 winning hands is good out of 224 hands you cant really count the rest because they were steals if i was just playing the cards and never bluffing i would of won 16 hands out of 224 that looks bad to me.
 
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Sat May 11, 2013, 09:23 AM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,324
I think it's impossible to say, because although you had "16 hands that would have won at showdown", only a small fraction of all pots make it to showdown. I've not done a deep analysis of my 6-max stats yet (sample size is too small to draw conclusions) but in full ring games, I only have to make a river decision with about 5% of the hands hands I'm dealt. (And if that decision is to fold, or I bet and villain folds, there's still no showdown).

Numbers that are useful are your WTSD (Went to showdown) and W$SD (Won money at showdown) stats.

Over a larger sample than 224 hands (a lolbad sample size, frankly), your WTSD number should be between 22 and 28%, and your W$SD number should be anything over 50%. (Most winning players have the best hand at showdown at least 52% of the time, but bluffier players will have a lower number, but they make some money by getting better hands to fold).


Bracelet Winner
 
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Sat May 11, 2013, 11:10 AM
(#3)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Yh it is a bad sample size but i cant bring hands up on pt3 trial so i just went through 1 session,my went to showdown is at 30% and my won dollars at showdown is 55% over 20k hands, i reckon if i knew how to change it to my last 5k hands though you would see that went to showdown drop but it could be high anyway where ive checked the BB down with a station in the hand, i couldn't count how many times ive gone to showdown with a station theres just no point in bluffing them.
 
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Sat May 11, 2013, 11:24 AM
(#4)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,324
If your WTSD is as high as 30% and your W$SD is 55%, then you're probably missing value with some of your medium strength hands. If you increase your value-betting size and frequency, then villains will be folding a little more often (so your WTSD and W$SD numbers will both come down), but your profits will go up for all the occasions when a villain calls with worse.
While bluffing a station is obviously not a good idea, if your WTSD remains above 29%, you're being too passive yourself.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Sat May 11, 2013, 11:51 AM
(#5)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Yh im definitely missing a ton of value with medium strength hands i do bet strong with good hands but i dont think the size has always been big enough as for being passive though my AF total over 20k hands is 2.2.

The trouble with my went to showdown is i get to check hand like 63o in the bb alot and if i dont hit the board im not betting into 3 stations but if you tell me 2.2 AF is to low i can turn up the heat i know when i play against good players though my AF goes over 3 because i wont get to check my BB so i wont have hands like 63o getting checked to the river if that makes sense.
 

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