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2NL FR: Nut flush draw ODDS

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2NL FR: Nut flush draw ODDS - Sun May 12, 2013, 12:42 PM
(#1)
d2p22's Avatar
Since: Aug 2012
Posts: 18
BronzeStar
Hi!

I would like to post this hand to make sure my thinking about Pot Odds and how to interpret them is correct.




Preflop
I am in the CO, according to Arty Smoke's open raise Chart in his Blog this is a correct raise.

Stats of Villain_6: VPIP 44%, PFR 0% on 27 Hands. With only very few Hands we can say nothing confirmed about Postflopgame, but 44% IS very loose especially combined with PFR 0%.
I think he is not a reg and I must expect "wrong" play. (eg. Limping, minraises etc.)

Flop
Normal Cbet 50% of Pot. Beeing on a draw, should I adjust betsizing of the Cbet? I could either get a free card, but then the Pot would stay small even if I hit the Nutflush. I cbet as a semi-bluff, to feed the pot in case of a flush.

Turn
The board pairs: Should I be afraid of slowplayed Pocketpair 66 or 99 (WELL in his pf-calling range)? Is this seeing monster under beds?
He checks. I don't think he would slowplay something better than a Nutflush, so I am drawing to the best hand. I bet to get him hopefully of the hand.
He does something really unexpected: He aises me! At the start I said I expect "wrong" play from him, so I don't give the fact that its a min raise a great meaning.

What Hands could he have to raise me? A9? K9? Maybe Clubs?
A raise from him is certainly unexpected, he was playing really passive in this hand.




I have several problems now:
1. Are my Outs good enough?
2. Is my Nutflush draw still good enough if it hits
3. Should I call or raise

1. Odds of my Draw
I have 9 outs, this gives me approx. 18% to hit the Nutflush. After my call the Pot will be 0.25+0.18+0.36+0.18=$0.97 in the pot and I have to call $0.18 that is 18.5% of the pot, there -EV play, but there is a really good chance, that I get his remaining stack of $0.41 into the pot on the river, no matter if he improved or not, because of the SPR. This will give me a pot ratio of 0.18/(0.79+0.80+0.18)=10.1%, which is really good. I call!

2. Is my Nutflush good enough it it hits?
He could have 66, 99, 69, QQ which would beat me. I think 69 is not in his preflop range. QQ, 66 or 99 could have well been slowplayed by him until now. Is this seeing Monsters under a bed? I thought so, thats why I called. (Well, I also called because my timebank started to get empty)

3. Raise or Call
I decided to call, because IF the last club does not hit and he raises all in, I will be able to fold my hand and save $0.40. I don't think I have any fold equity either on the turn or on the river. Thats why I just called.

Am I making any mistakes in my thinking about Pot odds?



Thank you,
Hand analysis is awesome, PSO is awesome
Jonas

Last edited by d2p22; Sun May 12, 2013 at 12:51 PM..
 
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Sun May 12, 2013, 02:04 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
Hi d2p22!

A4s is good enough to raise with in the CO position, but I wouldn't go crazy with it if I just hit the ace and get action, as the kicker is useless.
The sample size is small, but this villain has very loose-passive fishy stats. He's probably calling quite wide in the BB with any two connected cards, and certainly all pocket pairs and most Broadways.
I like betting 50-60% of pot on the flop. Villain will check-fold often, but if he calls it's not terrible, because with the NFD and an overcard you have plenty of equity. It's good to start building a pot, because you want to win villain's whole stack if you make the flush.
Villain calls and the turn is a 9. This is a bad card for you, because this villain will definitely have some 9x hands in his BB calling range. T9s and 98s are possible, as well as A9s, and probably even Q9s and K9s.
I would check behind here for pot-control and to take a free card. I don't like betting the turn precisely because it gives villain a chance to raise. If he makes a big raise, then we won't have the right odds to try and hit the flush. Being in position is great in this spot, because we can control the size of the pot. We keep it small when we might be losing, but we'll put more money in when we're sure we're winning.

Fortunately, villain only makes a minraise on the turn. Minraises generally mean you have the odds to call with flush draws. Here you need to call 18c into a pot that will be almost a dollar, so you need about 18% equity. Your flush draw has a slightly better chance than 18% of hitting. (The rule of 4 and 2 isn't quite perfect; it's just an approximation based on there being 50 cards in the deck. You have 9 outs among the 46 unknown cards, which means you have about a 19.5% chance of hitting.)

When you factor in the implied odds of getting the rest of villain's stack on the river, this is a fairly easy call. He is so pot-committed that he is never folding a hand like K9 if the river is a random spade that doesn't give him a full house.

Calling the turn raise is fine. You don't want to put him all in right now, because he's definitely calling (you have no "fold equity") and you haven't yet made your hand. You can fold on the river when you don't improve.

As played, you make the nut flush, but the T is not the perfect card, because T9 just made a boat. Nevertheless, putting villain all in is the right move, as there are several worse hands that will pay you off.

I think you played this hand pretty well and your understanding of the odds is good. Nice one!


Bracelet Winner
 
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Sun May 12, 2013, 03:07 PM
(#3)
d2p22's Avatar
Since: Aug 2012
Posts: 18
BronzeStar
Thank you,
I will try to keep it that way!
Jonas
 

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