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What do you make of this

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What do you make of this - Sun May 12, 2013, 06:18 PM
(#1)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485


Ok so i got no reads on this guy what do you think hes got here hes not a station because he donked the flop so he could have a flush draw but i dont think many people donk the flop with a draw?

There's clearly a load of hands that have me crushed here but this looks all to suspicious to me.
 
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Sun May 12, 2013, 07:32 PM
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RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
Donking the flop often means villain hit the flop in some way, but is weak. The smaller the donk bet, the weaker their hand is in general.

The fact that villain called your turn bet rather than raised it implies he doesn't have a good hand like a set or straight. It is much more likely he has top pair or a flush draw. On the river, do you think villain is donk-shoving Q9 when the flush draw hits? Seems very unlikely to me. The line villain took is representing a flush draw the entire way. Very likely villain had A high flush and shoved river hoping you had a second best flush. Also, he may have tried the shove to make you suspicious of a bluff and call to bluff-catch.
 
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Sun May 12, 2013, 10:04 PM
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ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
I'm not sure if many players will donk the flop with a draw, but I certainly do it on a board like this, and I run into lots of LAGs that donkbet around 30% of the time or more, so they are definitely leading out with draws as well as made hands. When the board is fairly ragged, a donkbet has a fair bit of fold equity. AK in spades isn't calling here, for example.
I definitely like raising the flop, since you have the nuts, but - as is common in many of the hands you post - your raise is far too small. When the action comes back to villain, there's 50c in the pot and he only needs to call 16c. He's therefore not making a mistake by calling with a flush draw, as the pot lays odds that translate to about 24% equity. Particularly when you're deep-stacked and you have a big hand, you need to work out how to get your whole stack in the middle to win a huge pot. You don't do that by raising so small. Make it 35c or something like that, to gain more value for your hand and to make it a mistake for villain to call with worse.
Your turn bet is better, because now the villain doesn't have the immediate odds to chase a flush, and since he's out of position, it will be hard for him to extract value even if he hits it.
His massive overbet on the river screams "I hit my flush", so you did well to not pay him off.
In effect, you lost the minimum here, but consider all the times he won't hit the flush. In those spots, you're missing value on the flop and turn while he's still drawing.

Most 2NL villains can barely understand the rule of 4 and 2. You've probably seen plenty of them call off 150bb on the flop with a bare flush draw. Since there are so many players that will pay a premium when they are on a draw, make sure you charge them as much as possible when it looks like that's exactly what they're doing.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Mon May 13, 2013, 12:11 PM
(#4)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Ok cheers, yh when he donked i thought hes got TPTK, two pair or a set but when he just called my bets i thought he was drawing but it was the way he just shoved he could of say bet half pot and maybe got a call from most players, a shove is the type of move i see stations do but he donked so im wondering if i had a lag that bluffs alot here i still think i made a good fold though, if i had to call like a $1 i think i would call against a bluffy OP but obviously i had no stats. i could easily do that same move with air to a nit because i know they wouldnt bet the way i was betting with a draw they would obviously all ready have a made hand so that flush can scare a ton of people off there hand i noted him anyway il see how he plays again if we meet again.

Il fix the 3x raise asap Arty dunno why i do it when i know not to lol.

Last edited by mike2198; Mon May 13, 2013 at 12:18 PM..
 

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