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25nl reg tables - TT, good spot to 4b shove?

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25nl reg tables - TT, good spot to 4b shove? - Tue May 14, 2013, 03:06 PM
(#1)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
My reads at the time were based on around 30 hands.

Villain 6 had showed early signs of being a bad aggressive player and was opening a reasonable amount especially in late positions. Playing 31/18/0. With an AF 9.0.

Villain 3 had shown similar signs of being a bad player but in the passive sense. However he had been 3betting more than expected and 3/9 times in the BB. His stats were 47/26/13.6, However postflop he was passive with an AF 1.2.



OTB I think it's good to call with TT to try and get the BB to call, although the SB is a good LAG I don't expect him to be squeezing light when I flat OTB and I think it's worth trying to get the BB involved.

The BB then 3 bets pretty big, I think his range is 99+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+. The cut off calls and when he does this he removes a lot of good hands from his range, I think that his range is JJ-TT, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QJs, JTs, AQo-ATo, KJo+.

By shoving I think we can expect the BB to call off with his entire range, I assumed this due to his postflop passiveness. Although the CO will be getting great odds with a shove and a call in front of him his range is much wider that of the BB and thus we have a great deal more fold equity vs this player. I think with all the money in the pot this play will be profitable but I'd be interested to see what everyone thinks.

I ran pokerstove with my hand vs their ranges if they both call and although I'm not ahead my equity is good. However I'm unsure how to calcualte if this play is +EV?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

89,944,622 games 50.150 secs 1,793,511 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.215% 37.00% 02.21% 33281551 1990153.33 { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 31.563% 30.47% 01.10% 27402728 987080.83 { TT }
Hand 2: 29.222% 26.66% 02.56% 23976665 2306895.33 { JJ-TT, AQs-AJs, KQs, AQo }


Thanks

Oli


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Wed May 15, 2013, 02:12 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Hi Oli,

I would let this go, the reads are too insignificant with only 30 hands to assume they are both just spewing off. I suspect V3 is usually pretty tight here without a significant read, and V6 can easily be flatting JJ/QQ and sometimes KK or AA to trap you in, which it seems you haven't even included in your equity run for his hand, you only have TT/JJ in there.. this just makes it worse.

And even as is your equity is not good per your own equity run. You have 31.5% equity and are contributing 33% of the pot, so -EV. It's not that simple of course as we may get 2 folds sometimes, or 1 fold and 1 call, but we can't really estimate how often those things will happen. But when you start removing a few of the lighter hands like AJs and adding in more AA-QQ combos you can see it's ultimately not good for you.

We don't really have the right price to set mine either, so I would begrudgingly let it go.


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