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25nl - A5o OTB. Tight river fold?

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25nl - A5o OTB. Tight river fold? - Tue May 14, 2013, 03:58 PM
(#1)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
The SB is appearing to be a TAG but he's only been at the table 27 hands. 17/13/12.5 AF 2.0.

The BB is nitting it up, 09/06/2.7 AF 1.0, but again only a small sample of 76 hands.



I decide to steal OTB with A5o and the SB comes along, I think the cbet is fairly standard as I can get some better aces to fold. However given that there are 2 broadway cards that he could have potentially hit and the flop is connected is giving up a better option?

On the turn I pick up some SD value and think I have a better chance to get value if I check back and bet the river if given the chance or pick off a bet on good cards.

The K hits the river and he leads out fairly small. At this point I don't expect him to be betting a Q although we chop with all other A's due to the paired boards I'm unsure how many are in his range, maybe AQ and occasionally AJ. We need 25% equity to call and vs a range of AQs-AJs, KTs+, AQo-AJo, KQo we have 29% equity. Is it close enough that folding isn't terrible?

Cheers

Oli


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Last edited by Croyd93; Wed May 15, 2013 at 04:03 AM..
 
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Wed May 15, 2013, 06:05 AM
(#2)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Hey Oliver

I think the turn is a bet and I don't really think it is very close. There are simply too many second best hands that can call us. KX, QX, JX, TX, 9X. That's a lot of hands!

The flop is closer, I don't really have much of a preference either way. We have pretty much 10% equity at best so we don't benefit much from checking back. So I'd rather try to take it away now from 88-22, AX type hands than check back and lose the hand 100% of the time. The question is whether his check-folds are a large enough portion of his range to much c-betting profitable. One can hope so
 
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Wed May 15, 2013, 12:38 PM
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mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
The way he played that i put him on a draw maybe TQ JQ and diamonds but when he bet the river he could of had a king and was scared of you flopping a straight but when you never bet the turn you basically said i dont have a straight so if he did have kings he just made a value bet on the river with his trips.

Good fold imo i wouldnt cbet that flop anyway your always getting called there unless they had a weak underpair
 

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