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AKs UTG 5NL Zoom - Against a uber nit

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AKs UTG 5NL Zoom - Against a uber nit - Wed May 15, 2013, 09:26 AM
(#1)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Villain is 7/6 over 304 hands. Very tight player.



Given his stats, when I get 3bet it can be narrowed down to QQ+ and AKs/AKo.

I think the hand plays itself up to the river.

I felt I had a lot of equity in the hand. I didnt have him on a flush draw that got there. I didnt think he had a J or a pair of J's because I think with his stats he calls with JJ.

So I still have him on something along the original line of thinking AA/KK/QQ or AK. When I make my straight on the river I think I probably have the best hand. When he shoves, given his stats, am I supposed to get away from this and put him on as narrow a range as QQ?

He could easily have had a K high straight or AA.
 
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Wed May 15, 2013, 11:59 AM
(#2)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
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You could have raised big on flop. You're in good shape against a range of QQ+, AKs, AKo on the flop. Looking at the results you are a little behind QQ specifically, but it's still is not a bad situation considering the dead money already in the pot by the time you go for a raise on the flop.

edit:
So no I wouldn't expect to get away from this hand. It would have been infinitely better to get the money in while you had greater than 0% equity though!

Last edited by RockerguyAA; Wed May 15, 2013 at 12:01 PM..
 
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Wed May 15, 2013, 02:57 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
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Hi bhoy,

First of all, I don't like your preflop ranging. This guy is a true nit farmer, and he's click-back 3-betting an UTG opener... his range is more like QQ+ here. A player like this will be flatting JJ- and AK more often than not.

So yeah, making a big move on the flop is good if he's got AKo in his range, but he doesn't, and he's not folding overpairs imo. Against QQ+ we are a small equity dog, but with the dead money in the pot from the preflop action I would check-shove and play for stacks. It's basically a high variance flip, but if anyone would fold KK or AA it's this guy so if there is any fold equity at all we realize it this way, and if not we get to see both board cards and don't risk getting bombed off on a blank turn.

As an aside, after check-calling the flop, this is a great turn card to semi-bluff as it probably scares him.

On the river, this is a bet/fold imo. We definitely want to bet to get value from AA and KK (maybe just AA, as KK will bet for us if we check, but AA will check down).

I can't fold fast enough to his shove though. This guy is a scared nit, and he's overbet shoving on top of your river lead. Even with thinking AK is in his range, he would never take this action on a paired, 3 flush board, he would just call. I actually think the only hand he will show us here is QQ. Unless I've misjudged his preflop 3b range to be a bit too tight, in which case he could also show us quads.

Quote:
He could easily have had a K high straight or AA.
He could when he calls the river. Never when he overbet shoves though. Nits don't take this type of river action without the nuts or very close to it. Here that is QQ only (or JJ).


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Last edited by TheLangolier; Wed May 15, 2013 at 03:43 PM..
 
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Wed May 15, 2013, 03:02 PM
(#4)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
EDIT: Phew. I was typing this at the same time as Dave. I'm glad my analysis more or less tallies with his.

This will sound really nitty, but my default play with AK UTG when I get 3-bet by a tight player is to fold. AK just doesn't do well against this player's 3-bet range. In fact it doesn't do well against an average TAG's range. At best, you're flipping with another AK, and being out of position will make it very hard to make money in this spot.
Calling might work out OK if stacks are very deep, because you can outflop QQ/KK and get a couple of streets of value, but the other option (4-betting) is turning your hand into a bluff, hoping that villain will fold QQ/AK. 4-betting is also liable to lead to villain shoving on you with KK+.

As played, you call and get a pretty good flop. You have the NFD, two overcards, plus a gutshot, and this flop scares the bejeesus out of AA. You can credibly rep TT and JJ here, because it's common to see those hands being raised UTG and flatting a 3-bet. It's also just about possible for you to have flopped the nuts with KQs. The problem is: Will villain be able to get away from his hand if you represent a hand that crushes his? If his range is QQ+/AK, then a hefty check-raise here can often get AA/KK to fold (and definitely AK), but I think QQ is always calling with the OESD + overpair.
I think your best option is to check-raise the flop as a semi-bluff. I might even check raise all in for maximum fold equity. With that play, then when he calls (which will happen about half the time, I should think) you have plenty of outs against QQ/KK, and two chances with which to hit them. Stationing him to the river doesn't appeal, because you'll often be putting in over half your stack and then folding when all your outs fail to materialise.
As played, the only flush villain can have is AdKd. At worst he has Broadway. More likely given this line is Queens full and - very occasionally - quads. He's never jamming the river with just kings or aces. Since there's nothing you actually beat, I'd fold to the river shove. If he got me off a chop, then that's good for him, but I'm not paying off a boat.


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Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Wed May 15, 2013 at 03:05 PM..
 
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Wed May 15, 2013, 03:10 PM
(#5)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
When you check call like that people think your drawing so when that queen came on the river he probably though you just made a straight so when he raised you your better off folding imo against a nit especially when you gave him a range that has you crushed like JJ or QQ.
 

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