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38 percent debate..

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38 percent debate.. - Wed May 15, 2013, 09:52 AM
(#1)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
[QUOTE]...Arty......'' is just crazy talk. The fact is, AA is the best hand and it is a huge favourite against the random hands that villains at the table have. This doesn't mean that AA will always win, or even win 82% of the time, but with careful play, pocket aces will win the pot on full ring tables about 80% of the time, and on 6-max tables more than 85% of the time. This "38%" figure you pulled out of the air shows a fundamental misunderstanding of hand strength and probability.''
.................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .........

Holdem say's......

You can not say that, it is not crazy talk, as it stands pre-flop utg aces can not be any percent in reality because there as been no involved play from the other opps.

If all 8 opp's call you , your aces are weak. An estimated 38%.

The variance on aces alters. We can make judgement by playing styles.

Example- we have 3 tags and 1 nit - We can presume they will fold to an utg raise, they understand.

We are left then with 4 lags/fish with high vpip.

We can presume then our aces may get called into a 5 way pot.

10-2 odds , they have ten cards we have 2. Simple dumbed down logic, however they have more chance of hitting the board between them.


Aces are only 82% over any 2, 50-50 , 2 v 2 cards.


Example - folded around to us on the button with hole cards aces, we know then the most that can happen is a 3 way pot and so on...


So we know then our aces are at a good percentage favourite to win the hand.

This is just a simple understanding and way to use poker stove in your head with no maths involved or relative simple maths.

Last edited by holdemace486; Wed May 15, 2013 at 10:00 AM.. Reason: quote not working
 
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Wed May 15, 2013, 10:21 AM
(#2)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
This is a weird debate, but as much as the equity of AA drops the more people there are in the hand, the more the equity of the other hands drops too with players holding each others outs, blockers etc.

AA is still the strongest starting hand.
 
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Wed May 15, 2013, 10:40 AM
(#3)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Quote:
Originally Posted by bhoylegend View Post
This is a weird debate, but as much as the equity of AA drops the more people there are in the hand, the more the equity of the other hands drops too with players holding each others outs, blockers etc.

AA is still the strongest starting hand.
Agreed AA will always be the strongest starting hand, but equity does drop depending on players in pot.


Yes, also the other players equity drop, and I wish poker stove was working, I think Aces may be -EV 9 way , but then maybe the pot odds justifies it, I am unsure, I just know, I would not fancy calling a 9 way pot with ACES......

What would the maths be on Aces against 8 other random hands in an all-inn situation?

1500k stacks....
 
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Wed May 15, 2013, 10:58 AM
(#4)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
At a 9 handed table, with AA versus 8 random handed opponents

all with 1500 stacks.

You get your aces in a 34% favourite (other players share the 66% at about average 8% each)

- you will win 1/3 of the time

you will win 8x1500 profit in chips each time you win (1/3)

you will lose 1x1500 chips each time you lose (2/3)

you are massively winning with aces in this situation in the long run

Ed

Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Wed May 15, 2013 at 11:00 AM..
 
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Wed May 15, 2013, 11:17 AM
(#5)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Quote:
Originally Posted by EdinFreeMan View Post
At a 9 handed table, with AA versus 8 random handed opponents

all with 1500 stacks.

You get your aces in a 34% favourite (other players share the 66% at about average 8% each)

- you will win 1/3 of the time

you will win 8x1500 profit in chips each time you win (1/3)

you will lose 1x1500 chips each time you lose (2/3)

you are massively winning with aces in this situation in the long run

Ed
+ a lot


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Wed May 15, 2013, 01:25 PM
(#6)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Thank you for the maths.

Interesting though that between them they would have 66%. Between them in time, this surely makes, ''between them'', better odds to your aces?
 
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Wed May 15, 2013, 04:37 PM
(#7)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Quote:
Originally Posted by holdemace486 View Post
Thank you for the maths.

Interesting though that between them they would have 66%. Between them in time, this surely makes, ''between them'', better odds to your aces?

Between them yes But no one hand will have greater odds that AA (with 8 other random hands)

say first hand of Open Leauge and you have AA and you shove and get called by 8 others
13500 chips in the middle
you have 31% chance to win
players 2-8 all have a 7.6% chance to win

so if we do this 100 times
win 13500 31 times = 418500 chips won

but we lose 69 times 1500*69 = 103500 chips

Net loss or gain is 418500-103500 = + 315000

so this is a plus EV shove of 3150 chips every time we are in this situation.


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Wed May 15, 2013, 04:46 PM
(#8)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grade b View Post
Between them yes But no one hand will have greater odds that AA (with 8 other random hands)

say first hand of Open Leauge and you have AA and you shove and get called by 8 others
13500 chips in the middle
you have 31% chance to win
players 2-8 all have a 7.6% chance to win

so if we do this 100 times
win 13500 31 times = 418500 chips won

but we lose 69 times 1500*69 = 103500 chips

Net loss or gain is 418500-103500 = + 315000

so this is a plus EV shove of 3150 chips every time we are in this situation.

I sort of see it the opposite, we may win more chips but we will lose more times, so in tourney for example we would get knocked out more, is that not the case? I see it has 2-1 against.
 
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Wed May 15, 2013, 04:47 PM
(#9)
Profess Awe's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,579
What Grade b said

In a tourney we still want to get in a situation where we are expecting to win chips on average and a whopping +3150 in Grade b's example is huge. Even if two thirds of the time we get in this situation we lose our tournament life, it would be hard to argue against taking this +EV spot.

Last edited by Profess Awe; Wed May 15, 2013 at 04:50 PM..
 
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Wed May 15, 2013, 04:54 PM
(#10)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Yes not any one hand is greater in strength than Aces has a starting hand, but 8 other hands, and aces are behind to the whole, is this not the case?

You would be 2-1 underdog although still favourite over any two, but not favourite over the situation of a full ring table all in?
 
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Wed May 15, 2013, 05:08 PM
(#11)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
It doesn't matter that we might not have more than 50% equity against everyone. All that matters is whether the play is profitable in the long run.
If we are contributing X percentage of the pot, but our equity is greater than X %, then it is a play with a positive expectation. It is +EV.

In a 9-handed pot, we're contributing 11.1% of the pot, but we're winning it about 35% of the time. This is a hugely profitable situation to be in.

It's simple pot odds really, a bit like when you make bet on a horse race. If a bookmaker lays odds of 3 to 1, but you expect the horse to win more often than 1 in 4 times, you would place the bet. With aces in a 9-handed pot, the pot lays odds of 8 to 1, but you're getting paid a lot more often than one in 9 times! Your winning chances are closer to 2 to 1.

The whole debate is a little weird anyway, because when I raise with AA UTG, I've never had 8 players go all in after me! Even at 2NL, some people respect my raises.


Bracelet Winner

Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Wed May 15, 2013 at 05:11 PM..
 
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Wed May 15, 2013, 07:03 PM
(#12)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
It doesn't matter that we might not have more than 50% equity against everyone. All that matters is whether the play is profitable in the long run.
If we are contributing X percentage of the pot, but our equity is greater than X %, then it is a play with a positive expectation. It is +EV.

In a 9-handed pot, we're contributing 11.1% of the pot, but we're winning it about 35% of the time. This is a hugely profitable situation to be in.

It's simple pot odds really, a bit like when you make bet on a horse race. If a bookmaker lays odds of 3 to 1, but you expect the horse to win more often than 1 in 4 times, you would place the bet. With aces in a 9-handed pot, the pot lays odds of 8 to 1, but you're getting paid a lot more often than one in 9 times! Your winning chances are closer to 2 to 1.

The whole debate is a little weird anyway, because when I raise with AA UTG, I've never had 8 players go all in after me! Even at 2NL, some people respect my raises.
Thank you Arty, the original idea that I started in Sam's thread was not really aimed at aces 9 way. It was aimed at the point, that utg aces , start at relatively 34% until people fold. The percent increases as more people fold.
Having aces in mid position, and every one folds around to you, you know your aces then have a stronger percent chance, than having aces utg.

Against ATC it stays the same it is 82 percent favourite.

I consider the variance and equity on aces does alter players per pot?
 
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Wed May 15, 2013, 07:52 PM
(#13)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
The %'s are based on how many people are in the pot... POSITION IS IRRELEVANT!

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Wed May 15, 2013, 08:14 PM
(#14)
Profess Awe's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,579
Quote:
Originally Posted by holdemace486 View Post
Thank you Arty, the original idea that I started in Sam's thread was not really aimed at aces 9 way. It was aimed at the point, that utg aces , start at relatively 34% until people fold. The percent increases as more people fold.
Having aces in mid position, and every one folds around to you, you know your aces then have a stronger percent chance, than having aces utg.

Against ATC it stays the same it is 82 percent favourite.

I consider the variance and equity on aces does alter players per pot?
OK I am starting to see the argument you are making, theoretically if you pick up AA under the gun you don't know how many players may come into the pot after you, so you could think I have 34% chance rising as people fold ... but my strong counter argument is why the extremely negative viewpoint? Surely it is more realistic and positive for me to say when I have AA in early position I know that I win 94% of the time, or I run at over 1000bb/100 or I expect to win $2.91 per hand [This is over 30,000 hands mainly at NL25]. My point is it sounds like you worry about AA UTG because of theoretical what if I get callers thinking, whereas I am thinking yay Aces, far and away my most profitable hand UTG.
 
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Wed May 15, 2013, 08:35 PM
(#15)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
BronzeStar
I have got to laugh. Every online odds calculator I have ever seen or tried has pocket aces favored pre flop, regardless of the number of players. It ranges from a high of 85 percent when it is one-on-one, to a low of 54 percent when there are 8 others in the pot. No matter how you figure it, aces are the best hand pre flop.

The big "but" to that last statement is what happens post flop. At that point, it becomes a virtual crap shoot. This is regardless of the number of players in the hand. A player with 7 - 2 off suit will have a superior hand when the flop comes up with a two-pair or trip hand. The idiot who called your all-in with a 4 - 3 suited hand will have you dominated if the flop comes up with three in his suit.

Now look at position. If you hold pocket aces under the gun, there is the potential of 9 players being in the pot. You still have the better odds pre flop of 54 percent, but that's too close to a coin flip. This is where betting strategy comes into play. I cannot imagine anyone with pocket aces not trying to whittle down the field by betting, and big.

Does this guarantee you a win? Can you say river rats, or calling stations? The odds might remain in your favor, but don't forget that any hand holds the potential of winning.

If I may reverse your statement. Instead of saying pocket aces has a better potential of winning pre flop, what hands do you believe have a better chance?

As I see it, the debate over the best hand is an undisputable fact when we are prior to the community. This is fact. Accept it. It is as real as gravity. To say otherwise leaves one open to ridicule at best, or a potential mark in future games.

Where the line blurs is when the flop is shown. At this point, every hand will have a different two-card nut combination. That will change with the turn and river. What you need to do is look at the general history of the hands played. I'm willing to bet that aces are still your best performing hand when it comes to win-loss. It might not be a great money winner since a smart player will recognize the message you're sending via bets and act accordingly.

Let me quote my study. Pocket aces have a high winning rate, but a low return ratio when proper betting strategy is used and read. It therefore becomes a tradeoff between enticing a player with a weak hand into betting and scaring off those with the potential of cracking your aces. Like any investment, the greater the risks, the greater the payoff. Translation, slow playing aces might win you huge pots, but you'll lose a lot of those pots too.
 
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Wed May 15, 2013, 09:19 PM
(#16)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Quote:
Originally Posted by Profess Awe View Post
OK I am starting to see the argument you are making, theoretically if you pick up AA under the gun you don't know how many players may come into the pot after you, so you could think I have 34% chance rising as people fold ... but my strong counter argument is why the extremely negative viewpoint? Surely it is more realistic and positive for me to say when I have AA in early position I know that I win 94% of the time, or I run at over 1000bb/100 or I expect to win $2.91 per hand [This is over 30,000 hands mainly at NL25]. My point is it sounds like you worry about AA UTG because of theoretical what if I get callers thinking, whereas I am thinking yay Aces, far and away my most profitable hand UTG.
Yes, you see my point.

I am not looking at this from a negative point of view, but a positive point of view.

If we can determine, for example, we have 3 calling stations at the table, we know regardless of raise, we are going 4 way into the flop. So by this, we can predict what our odds are, before any action has taken place. Foreseen the future actions of the players.
 
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Wed May 15, 2013, 09:20 PM
(#17)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cairn Destop View Post
I have got to laugh. Every online odds calculator I have ever seen or tried has pocket aces favored pre flop, regardless of the number of players. It ranges from a high of 85 percent when it is one-on-one, to a low of 54 percent when there are 8 others in the pot. No matter how you figure it, aces are the best hand pre flop.

The big "but" to that last statement is what happens post flop. At that point, it becomes a virtual crap shoot. This is regardless of the number of players in the hand. A player with 7 - 2 off suit will have a superior hand when the flop comes up with a two-pair or trip hand. The idiot who called your all-in with a 4 - 3 suited hand will have you dominated if the flop comes up with three in his suit.

Now look at position. If you hold pocket aces under the gun, there is the potential of 9 players being in the pot. You still have the better odds pre flop of 54 percent, but that's too close to a coin flip. This is where betting strategy comes into play. I cannot imagine anyone with pocket aces not trying to whittle down the field by betting, and big.

Does this guarantee you a win? Can you say river rats, or calling stations? The odds might remain in your favor, but don't forget that any hand holds the potential of winning.

If I may reverse your statement. Instead of saying pocket aces has a better potential of winning pre flop, what hands do you believe have a better chance?

As I see it, the debate over the best hand is an undisputable fact when we are prior to the community. This is fact. Accept it. It is as real as gravity. To say otherwise leaves one open to ridicule at best, or a potential mark in future games.

Where the line blurs is when the flop is shown. At this point, every hand will have a different two-card nut combination. That will change with the turn and river. What you need to do is look at the general history of the hands played. I'm willing to bet that aces are still your best performing hand when it comes to win-loss. It might not be a great money winner since a smart player will recognize the message you're sending via bets and act accordingly.

Let me quote my study. Pocket aces have a high winning rate, but a low return ratio when proper betting strategy is used and read. It therefore becomes a tradeoff between enticing a player with a weak hand into betting and scaring off those with the potential of cracking your aces. Like any investment, the greater the risks, the greater the payoff. Translation, slow playing aces might win you huge pots, but you'll lose a lot of those pots too.
Great post Cairn, I am not really on about the win rate though.
 
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Wed May 15, 2013, 09:35 PM
(#18)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
I CAN think of a situation when AA is not the favorite against 8 other players - but it does involve knowing what 2 other players have.

Say you have AA and you see the player on your right also has AA the player on your left is equally bad at protecting their cards and shows you a PP.

That PP has roughly 3-4% more equity in the pot than you do.
AcAd 12.7% = win of 171450 loss of 130950 =40500 or +405 chips per attempt
AhAs 13.3% = win of 179550 loss of 130050 = 49500 or +495 chips per attempt

This was using
KcKd
and 6 random hands on Pokrstove

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Wed May 15, 2013, 09:42 PM
(#19)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
I'm not sure where you got your information Cairn but:
Code:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   2,067,932  games    60.051 secs    34,436  games/sec

Board: 
Dead:  

          equity      win      tie     
Hand 0:   31.050%    30.84%   00.21%    { AA }
Hand 1:   07.674%    06.89%   00.79%    { random }
Hand 2:   07.663%    06.88%   00.79%    { random }
Hand 3:   07.641%    06.86%   00.78%    { random }
Hand 4:   07.673%    06.89%   00.79%    { random }
Hand 5:   07.666%    06.88%   00.79%    { random }
Hand 6:   07.673%    06.88%   00.79%    { random }
Hand 7:   07.664%    06.88%   00.78%    { random }
Hand 8:   07.659%    06.88%   00.78%    { random }
Hand 9:   07.637%    06.85%   00.79%    { random }

Last edited by TrumpinJoe; Wed May 15, 2013 at 09:54 PM..
 
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Wed May 15, 2013, 09:53 PM
(#20)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Ace,

It seems to me that you are discussing tourney EV (tEV). All-in the first hand with Aces, when you win the hand you do not increase they probability of winning the tourney eight-fold. The Independent Chip Model (ICM) is the most accepted way to measure tEV, but it requires information on every player in the field.
 

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