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25NL 6-Max Folding? (III)

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25NL 6-Max Folding? (III) - Thu May 16, 2013, 07:03 AM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
V5's 24/21, AF 3.9 over 580 hands. Flop CB: 66%(44) Turn CB: 44%(9), Flop n Turn check-raise: 0%(4)

A few hands ago, he opened AQo UTG and 4-bet shove it. Lost to V2 who joined the table not long ago, calling with 88.

V2: 53/21, AF 2.3 over 118 hands



I flat the cbet though the flop was coordianted, hoping to keep the fish in pot, planning to raise the Turn.

Turn comes a blank and V5 check-raise shove. We're getting pot odds of 1.9:1, 34%. His value range will include { AA, QQ-JJ, AQs-AJs, KTs, QJs, AQo-AJo, KTo, QJo } and we have 41% equity against that.

I tanked for a long time trying to figure out what he had. He could be tilted by the previous hand, shoving diamond flush draws or 12 outs. Sets and KT would have raised to maybe $10 instead, jamming just seems unsual here?

On the side note, would you have raised the Flop?

Last edited by TheAwesomeNW; Thu May 16, 2013 at 09:10 AM..
 
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Thu May 16, 2013, 10:09 AM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Hi TANW,


I absolutely am raising the flop here. Flatting pre in position to invite the fish in was good, but now that job is done, he's in. Either he's got a good piece of this board (and he won't fold to our raise) or he doesn't (and he'll fold to just the single bet). If any broadway card comes off it could scare our action if it doesn't beat us. If V5 has AK/AT/AJ/KQ/QJ then we want to reopen the betting for him and get more money in now before he gets there or gets scared by an unfriendly turn card. Also his turn c-bet % goes down so if he's just following through with air (like 77) then we would prefer he fold right now, as he probably won't put any more money in this pot anyway unless he draws out on us (and if he turns a small set it's a disaster for us as we have a hand we can't really get away from).

As played I'm snap calling him. nh set of 6's.


Seriously, he can have hands that beat us obviously, but also easily enough worse hands. Include in your ranging 66 (beats us), and AK, A6, KdQd, KdJd, QdTd, JdTd (we beat).


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Thu May 16, 2013, 11:54 AM
(#3)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
I saw the hand earlier today but decided not to reply until one of the trainers had done so.

My first thought was that your assigned range was not wide enough; this guy is opening 21% of hands so 66 is definitely in his opening range (my first thought as to why he was playing the hand this way was that he filled his set with the 6) and you have nearly 80% equity with that range and with pots odds of 34% it should be a snap call.

My only fear here is that he actually has it (the check raise all in on the turn looks very strong) and if he does we only have four outs which is more like 9% equity so I can see why the snap call, which would be profitable over time, puts you in a bit of a quandry here.

I think his range has narrowed with this bet to the point that we are are drawing to four outs and in that case I am going to fold even though it is contrary to the maths.

I am raising the flop as well though

Cheers,

TC

Last edited by topthecat; Thu May 16, 2013 at 12:02 PM..
 
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Thu May 16, 2013, 12:39 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by topthecat View Post
I think his range has narrowed with this bet to the point that we are are drawing to four outs and in that case I am going to fold even though it is contrary to the maths.
Hi top

As per my post, I disagree with this read, but the thought process is sound based on the read... if we feel certain he will only take this line with better hands and thus are behind and on the 4 out draw then we should fold (the maths would not be in our favor... the math is only in our favor when including hands in his range which we are beating).

While the action is strong, I think it's too tight to assume we are always beat here. Especially against someone who may be tilted. I see this play from AK trying to "protect its hand" (lol), and combo draws semi-bluffing (and it's a very strong semi-bluff obviously if we're discussing folding hands as strong as top 2 pair). That being said, if we assigned the villain ONLY a range of 2 pair+, we would still have over 45% equity and an easy call with a bit overlay from the pot.

Board: Ad Qs Jh 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.892% 41.54% 04.35% 5886 616.00 { AQo }
Hand 1: 54.108% 49.76% 04.35% 7050 616.00 { AA, QQ-JJ, 66, AQs-AJs, A6s, KTs, QJs, AQo-AJo, A6o, KTo, QJo }

About your first impression that he has 66 and just got there, I too wouldn't be surprised if we are saying "nh 66" when it's over. I can't find a fold though when I can reasonably expect the villain to take this line with enough worse hands.


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Fri May 17, 2013, 12:39 AM
(#5)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Hey guys, yea missed out 66 here. It seemed like he was on tilt due to previous hand, and like Dave said, shoving AK there as well. I couldn't really see many KT in his MP raising range.

I think there are enough worse hands he would have taken the same line with as well, thus made the call. He showed up with KTo though.
 
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Fri May 17, 2013, 03:55 PM
(#6)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Thanks Dave,

Your videos must be having some rub off on me

I was just wondering if there was any particular formula as to deciding when to include a villian's entire range or actually narrowing it down to that he has it. It makes a huge difference because in one case you are an EV favourite and calling the shove is profitable but with the exact same cards and situation but narrower range you are a total dog mathematically. At what point do we switch from one range to the other?

Thanks

Tony
 

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