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25NL 6-Max Folding? (IV)

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25NL 6-Max Folding? (IV) - Fri May 17, 2013, 02:10 AM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
V1's 25/23, AF 4.3 over 471 hands. 3bet: 10.3%, BB 3bet: 21%(56), Sqz: 6%, BB sqz: 18%(11)

Loves to defend BB by 3-betting. Had 4-bet bluff him before and it worked. Haven't seen him open shove yet. Multitabling with stacks of 50bb.

V2's 82/27, AF 8.0 over 11 hands.

No reads except for limper. He had sat down <10 hands before this.



I got a feeling that V1 is shoving wide though it's the first time doing so. I could see PPs and AK doing so, pretty standard move for midstackers.

Worrying part was V2 actually flatting behind. Rang an alarm bell of KK, AA. He could have wanted to get fancy, limp-reraising with premiums. As played, it made sense to flat and keep us in the pot.

If it's only against V1 I got an easy call. V2 on the other hand, not much info, might be flatting with trash or premiums. I'm also not sure what to put in Pokerstove for V2's range.

Against { TT+, AKs, AKo } for both players, we're 26%, while they're 37% equity each. Don't think we can flat behind, it's between folding and shoving. If we shove, we're putting in another $21.88 to win pot of $58.01 when he calls (doubt there's any fold equity), getting good odds of 1:2.65 which is 27%. Is it right to calculate this way??

If we change V2's range to { KK+ } while V1's remain, we're 18%. But if we add in QQ, we're 24%, still getting almost breakeven pot odds.

I remember Dave saying he likes to be fist-pumping when we get stacks in, but here we aren't exactly, maybe half-heartedly. And we've only invested 5bb. If it's at 2NL I should be happy getting it in. But at 25NL the more I look at this, the more I feel that it's ok to pass this spot.. What do you think?

Last edited by TheAwesomeNW; Fri May 17, 2013 at 09:23 AM..
 
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Fri May 17, 2013, 07:33 AM
(#2)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi Awesome,
I think flatting is not an option. So it's either shove or fold.
BB could be doing this wider since it looks like you're isolating the limper, and if he's a short stack reg I think he can do this with TT+,AK, AQs,KQs.
V2 could be playing his PPs like this 22-99 and also with his weak Ax hands AJ/AJ, A9s/A8s. He could be limping with AA/KK too like you mention

So against { TT+, AQs+, KQs, AKo } and { KK+, 99-22, AJs-A8s, AJo-ATo } we have 33% equity
But if V2 only continues when you shove with his PP then we have 30% equity to scoop the entire pot and 70% to lose 23.13 so we are +1.209$ in EV

My ranging could be off and hey if your not in the mood to gamble then you've just lost 1.25$ ( your raise ) + 1.209$ (your opportunity cost). So folding is costing you 2.46$ to protect the rest of your stack.
 
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Fri May 17, 2013, 10:01 AM
(#3)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Thanks geo! I understood your post until the +$1.209 EV, I'm pretty bad with calculations though it's the foundation of poker.

I tried working it out, got this (0.3 x 58.01) - (0.7 x 23.13) = 17.403 - 16.191 = 1.212 Is this how you derived the answer?

Also, that was based on your assumption V2 called the shove with PPs. How about those times he folded his non PPs (though I don't totally agree we have fold equity) If he folded, we'll be heads up with V1. Given your range, we're 47.7% equity against V1's 52.3%. Pot will be $35.25 after V2 folds. Then do we have to do the Math thing again? How to include into the overall EV? Lol I'm bad at this...

I only know Pokerstove and pot odds. So 1) assign them a range, click Evaluate. 2) Pot Odds- we're putting in another $21.88 to win overall pot of $58.01, so we get odds of 1:2.65 which is 27%. Pls let me know if this the right way to calculate here.

Never understood this +EV concept. Also there's this $EV difference in our stat trackers. Tried calculating but it just didn't add up. How do we apply the EV concept here and make it relevant? Great to have someone good with Math here. Help me out pls!!
 
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Fri May 17, 2013, 12:46 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,487
(Head Trainer)
Hi TANW,

The thought that V2 might limp with AA or KK here never even enters my mind. In 11 hands of play we have seen him voluntarily put money in the pot 9 times, 3 of which were by raising. I full expect he's limping here super wide, and is quite capable of calling off with a range that includes all kinds of garbage suited and connected hands, not to mention pretty much all hands we dominate.

AKs plays fine against V1's 3b shoving range. He likes to 3b, is on a short stack, facing a steal raise from someone who 4b him off his "move" once already. I think TT+, AK, AQs, KQs is way too tight for him in this spot. I think we can comfortably add in AQo, AJ, 99-77, and even that may be conservative.

And we are well ahead of V2's range. If we lose the main pot but beat V2, we still break even on the hand.

In short, I think this is a good situation for our AKs, and would reshove here. I might even throw in a little fist pump.


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Last edited by TheLangolier; Fri May 17, 2013 at 12:49 PM..
 
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Fri May 17, 2013, 04:16 PM
(#5)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
I am a bit lost in this one too TANW but shoving appears to be the optimum play

Cheers,

TC
 
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Fri May 17, 2013, 06:34 PM
(#6)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
@TheAwesomeNW, "I tried working it out, got this (0.3 x 58.01) - (0.7 x 23.13) = 17.403 - 16.191 = 1.212 Is this how you derived the answer?" - yes (must have miscalculated the pot sizes etc. But that's the main picture.
I guess if we want to calculate for different scenarios we need to create a tree diagram - I'm not a math genius but I think you have it covered with the pokerstove and pot odds to evaluate the profitability of your all in decision

I'm not fist pumping as Dave on this one, but I think I'm shoving too
 
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Sat May 18, 2013, 01:33 AM
(#7)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Thanks guys! Perhaps due to past bad experience, I just felt that his flatting was insanely strong, trying to trap us.

Actual hand we did shove and V2 called with J7o. I was extremely surprised. V1 had AJs and they spiked a Jack though.

Btw was the calculation of pot odds right there Dave?
 

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