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5NL 6-max Zoom KK

5NL 6-max Zoom KK - Fri May 17, 2013, 04:21 PM
fp_boss77's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 490
Hi, teh villains stats are 27/7/0 AF 2 but only on 16 hands, so there's not too much to know from his stats.
Should I call teh river bet ?
The xr on the turn I thought it could be 88,33,JJ,AJ,or some wird 2P hands(I'd expect him to 3B AA and QQ.I wasn't ready to fodl my hand on the Turn, but the large river bet made me fold the OP.
Could he do this with worse hands than KK ?

Fri May 17, 2013, 04:27 PM
blast126's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 204
It's tough decision, however your opponent can have perfectly and JJ, QQ or AA, folding is not a shocking decision in this situation.
Fri May 17, 2013, 05:14 PM
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
The stats look like calling station stats. One thing I do is always colour code a player's tendencies and if he is loose and passive try and determine what he bets with post flop; a lot of these players will bet with a pair or part of the board but others will only bet with the virtual nuts.

These look like value bets

I am not sure in this case, it looks like value bets, but this is so dependent on what the villain sees as value; also he could be passive pre flop and aggressive post so he could be check raising with just a pair of Js.

Without having seen him showdown with something really out of line I am probably folding to the river bet as well.


Fri May 17, 2013, 06:39 PM
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi fp_boss77,

You could have cbet larger for starters.
There might be a case to fold turn, but OTR it's an easy fold because he is firing big when an overcard hits the board, if he had Jx the Q might have slowed him down or might have improved him.

good fold.
Fri May 17, 2013, 06:52 PM
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,324
I'm folding the turn, because it's a standard Baluga theorem spot. ("If you get raised on the turn, re-evaluate the strength of your one pair hand" with the implication being that you should be inclined to fold).

I agree with geo. I'd make a larger bet on the flop. Define your hand with a decent bet that gets value from worse. When you bet a little bigger, it's hard for villain to semi-bluff, because he should recognise he doesn't have much fold equity. If you tell the story "I have a strong hand", then it's a lot easier to get away from it if you get raised, because a raise means "I have a stronger hand".

Turn check-raises are even scarier than raises made in position. While it's certainly possible that villain is over-valuing AJ, his value-raising range is two pairs (J8), sets, and overpairs. We can pretty much discount overpairs, as this guy is always 3-betting QQ+ pre-flop I should think. I'm putting him on JJ, 88 or 33 and feeling pretty good about bet-folding the turn. (With a flopped set on a dry board OOP, my line would be the same as villain's: check-call, check-raise).
Since he made a hefty raise on the turn, he's nearly always following it up with a big river bet. If you're folding to any card that isn't your two-outer on the river, then you should be folding the turn.

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