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Nut Flush on paired board?

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Nut Flush on paired board? - Sat May 18, 2013, 03:05 PM
(#1)
ceril12's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 45
SilverStar
Villain was playing 45/36 but only over 11 hand sample.



 
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Sat May 18, 2013, 03:32 PM
(#2)
TommyGun369's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 340
The most important thing to take away from this hand is: If you are going to fold on the river you should never call on the turn. The only hand that sucked out OTR was 66 and I do not see him taking this line with that hand ever. To call and hope he checks the river behind planning to fold if he does not is a pretty big leak. Get rid of it.

The other thing is your preflop play. You are 3betting light from SB against a guy with almost 400BB effective stack! With your 3b sizing I would really be surprised to see him fold any 2 cards he opened with even if BB did not join the party. Btw, have you noticed that you are not closing the action and the BB sits there with a deep stack as well? With such preflop stats even from 11 hands I am not surprised to see him cold call with position on you. That said I do not think 3betting in this spot was a good idea. Playing that deep postflop OOP against 2 villains with A6s really sucks.

I like your flop cbet but I would definitely bet bigger OTT. If he has a decent pocket pair with a diamond he is never folding (and that is what I expect the bulk of his range consists of). This would also make it easier for me to fold when I get raised. You are repping a very strong range yourself and I think that at 5NL he will never show you anything worse than a boat with this line (save for the rare spew with random 2 cards or the Kd - but his raise sizing does not look bluffy to me at all). However, since your bet was so weak he might actually think you do not like that flush hit the board and raise you there with a weaker range forcing you to call him down. If you made your turn bet close to the size of the pot I do not think he is raising you with a weak flush so as crazy as it might sound my preferred line would be to bet big and fold right OTT.
 
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Sat May 18, 2013, 04:49 PM
(#3)
ceril12's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 45
SilverStar
The OR was playing 47/22 with a F3B 80 over 113 hands. He also had FCB 71 so thats why I decided to 3b light versus him so as to try win the hand preflop or isolate and take it down with a cbet.

I totally agree with your turn play advice, I think a bigger bet on the turn makes my decision easier.

Calling the raise was bad and its not a normal play, i think i was hoping the 4d comes out!!

Thanks for the advice
 
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Sat May 18, 2013, 06:34 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Hi

I like Tommy's point that calling the turn raise and folding the river is not a great plan.

I disagree with the read a bit though. I know we have very limited data but what we do have, he's been super laggy. Which means I can see him calling pre with many suited cards that have now made a worse flush. Is cold calling a 3b with Td7d a spew? Of course, but he'll do it. He might also have A2 and be raising trips, not worried about you having a flush. I would call him here, and actually prefer to put him all in on the turn as I do think we are getting raised by quite a few worse hands, and both A2 and smaller flushes will be frozen by a 4th diamond on the river, but won't ever fold the turn I would expect.

And yes, he will show us 55 and 22 sometimes for sure. As long as he's also showing us 9d8d (and all the other suited combos it implies) we should be +EV in the long run stacking here.


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Sat May 18, 2013, 06:58 PM
(#5)
herbalerv's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 217
SilverStar
Unlikely but he could also have ace 4 hearts and be value betting a straight, expecting you to have to overpair after your 3 bet pre flop?
 
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Sun May 19, 2013, 08:21 AM
(#6)
ceril12's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 45
SilverStar
Thanks for the advice people
 

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