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25NL 6-Max Folding? (V)

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25NL 6-Max Folding? (V) - Mon May 20, 2013, 12:36 AM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
V4's 34/19 AF: 1.7 over 93 hands. Flop FCB: 22%(9), Flop Raise CB: 33%(9), Flop Donkbet: 16%(6), Turn FCB: 0%(1)



By calling 2 streets, I see AT, JT and flush draws in his range. Don't think 2 pairs T9, T8 or sets TT, 99, 88, 33, or QJ will slowplay the Turn.

I think if I bet OTR, only a Queen will call. Flush will raise. But I can't see many Q in his range after calling 2 streets. QJ and QT are the only likely ones.

I'm not sure if it's a mistake to check OTR, leaves us uncertain about our hand strength. I don't know if any worse, like JT, or same hand strength QT will bet for value. Will you have taken bet-fold line?

As played, does the pot odds 27% we're getting justify a call?

Last edited by TheAwesomeNW; Mon May 20, 2013 at 12:38 AM..
 
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Mon May 20, 2013, 05:22 AM
(#2)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi Awesome,
I think if I were to bet this flop, I'd make it 2.11$.
The two diamonds on board make it a bit problematic because instead of 8 cards to improve we have 6 clean outs. A King that is not a diamond and an 8 that is not a diamond.

I think sets, and two pair will definitely raise OTF
When V4 calls OTF I would put him on diamonds, draws, TP.

Turn is great, luckily we just hit our 12% to improve. So goes without saying a bet is the best option to extract value from TP and diamond draws, or other draws that he picked up. I'd go for a 75% pot bet, something like 5$. When he calls, I'd take a away QJ from his range since a raise would make more sense to protect from diamonds.

River brings a diamond card. The fact that it is a J should not affect us much, it's the suit that makes it tuff because I feel his range is weighted on Diamonds and with his stats I think this kind of player will peel twice to hit his Flush and give up OTR if he misses. I don't think he would play his diamond draws aggressively, again because of his stats that look fishy and his passiveness.

When we check river, we can expect villain to check back some weak hands that have SD value but when he bets 60% of the pot, at first impression I feel that we have to fold.

But when I try to plug some hands on Pokerstove, I notice that because of the board texture there are less diamonds in his range than I expected and he could also be betting with hands that we split (QT-Q8)

Against a betting range of { AdQd, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, Kd8d, Kd7d, QcTc, QhTh, Qc9c, Qh9h, Qc8c, Qh8h, QcTd, QcTh, QcTs, QdTc, QdTh, QdTs, QhTc, QhTd, QhTs, Qc9d, Qc9h, Qc9s, Qd9c, Qd9h, Qd9s, Qh9c, Qh9d, Qh9s, Qc8d, Qc8h, Qc8s, Qd8c, Qd8h, Qd8s, Qh8c, Qh8d, Qh8s } we have 35% equity so justifies a call

BUT

If we do think that QT-Q8 would check back because they are afraid of the diamond (although you have checked river) then we have to fold. - Also since we have a Q in our hand our villain is left with three Queens to make a combination of Qx

I think this could be close - because of this I might think that putting a super tiny blocking bet OTR and folding to a raise might have saved us a difficult river decision.

Let's see what the trainers have to say.

GL!

Last edited by geoVARTA; Mon May 20, 2013 at 05:25 AM..
 
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Mon May 20, 2013, 10:25 AM
(#3)
TommyGun369's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 340
I agree with Geo in that a blocking bet OTR would make our decision much easier.
I can absolutely see a guy with those stats to get to river with a hand like 87 or JT. 87o is probably not in his range but JTo might be and that's a lot of combos that we beat OTR. The question is: Would he value bet 2 pair or bottom straight on that river? By not making a blocker bet we have to guess. I do not think I would value bet there but someone playing those stats might and I think it is much more likely that he would value bet JT or 87 than he would raise your blocking bet as a bluff. As played I would call. Yeah, you will be paying off a flush a lot but at the same time I think we can expect to see a hand like JT or 87 (or a weird Q like QT) more than 27% there. As a bonus, if he does not turn over a flush we have a valuable note to take.

Last edited by TommyGun369; Mon May 20, 2013 at 10:27 AM..
 
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Mon May 20, 2013, 10:41 AM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Hi TANW,

Not sure about iso-raising V2 with no info on them, so just assuming it was good.

I think your post flop play is fine here, and really like the larger turn bet sizing. River is terrible in that it makes it really hard to get called by worse hands. I would check and call for that reason. I would never check-fold this hand strength as played, our hand looks like an overpair at best, so we can get value bet by hands as weak as 2 pair imo, and the board is ripe to bluff at when we check. Unfortunately we'll be paying off a flush sometimes, but with this hand strength and line I think we have to.


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Mon May 20, 2013, 10:50 AM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Personally, I don't feel like I'm "guessing" with a check-call, because I've made the decision to call a bet before checking and I think that's our best EV line (may be wrong but that's my feeling).

I hate a blocking bet here personally, that is so obvious on this board to be a bet/fold I would only go with this line if I played to call a shove. A small blocking bet looks like KK/AA trying to get a cheap showdown, we will get shoved by all the hands beating and tying us, and can get shoved by 77 or J's up because he thinks he's good, as well as bluffs (AT might shove to try and get us off our KK)


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Wed May 22, 2013, 12:05 AM
(#6)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Thanks all! Was kinda disgusted at the river card. Since we checked OTR, hoped he'll bet with worse or same hand strength. He showed up with Ad7d, can't really fault him for calling us 2 streets.
 

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