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WTSD% Question

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WTSD% Question - Mon May 20, 2013, 12:53 PM
(#1)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Statistical question

My WTSD% was said to be very high, so I would like to know if it's a true high or a normal high? Let me explain with numbers.

We have 2 players (A and B), they both played 100,000 hands

Player A saw the flop 10,371 times for 10.37% (TAG)
Player B saw the flop 15,000 times for 15.00% (LAG)

Now as per their stats:
Player A went to showdown 34.48%
Player B went to showdown 23.84%

They both went to showdown 3,576 hands out of 100,000 hands for 3.58%

What I can deduct from this, is that Player A, has a better pick of the showdowns with a tighter range than Player B. So would you say that Player A goes to showdown way to often? Do those stats have true meaning?

I'd like to hear from those that can look up their stats, so that we can compare

Let's discuss.....
 
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Mon May 20, 2013, 12:59 PM
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mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
All that just baffled me but if your dollars won at showdown are above 52% (i think Arty said) your all good.

I got 29% went to showdown and 55% won dollars at showdown.

Last edited by mike2198; Mon May 20, 2013 at 01:09 PM..
 
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Mon May 20, 2013, 01:30 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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34.5% looks a tad on the high side, but a player who is entering the pot with strong ranges (and not stealing enough from the CO/BU/SB first in... so not having more weak ranges in the steal spots) will naturally have stronger post flop hand strengths in general and be able to get to showdown more.

It can also be influenced by other post flop factors. Take thin value betting for instance. Let's say you had 100 thin value bet spots in position on the river after an opponent checks to you. If you make the value bet, our hypothetical opponent folds 60% of the time (and the 40% they don't fold, hopefully we are good more than half of it so the bet was profitable, but I digress).

A thin value bettor will show down 40 of those 100 times, while a player who never makes thin value bets on the river will check these spots back and show down 100 of 100 times. The latter will obviously have a higher WTSD than the former.


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Mon May 20, 2013, 02:31 PM
(#4)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
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Generally speaking, a WTSD number of over 30% is "bad", but it's not a problem if your W$SD is over 50%.
High WTSD numbers generally indicate a lack of aggression; either the player is a calling station, or he's missing spots to value-bet on the river, as Dave pointed out.

FWIW, I was seeing showdowns about 28% of the time in full ring games, and so far in 6-max my WTSD is 25.8%, while playing slightly looser than most TAGs.


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Mon May 20, 2013, 03:29 PM
(#5)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
34.5% looks a tad on the high side, but a player who is entering the pot with strong ranges (and not stealing enough from the CO/BU/SB first in... so not having more weak ranges in the steal spots) will naturally have stronger post flop hand strengths in general and be able to get to showdown more.
Thanks Dave, makes a lot of sense, but here's another question, somebody with a HUD and sees 34.5% WTSD, could very well miss interpret the numbers, but don't get me wrong, probably 90% of the players with high % WTSD are playing it wrong

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
Generally speaking, a WTSD number of over 30% is "bad", but it's not a problem if your W$SD is over 50%.
High WTSD numbers generally indicate a lack of aggression; either the player is a calling station, or he's missing spots to value-bet on the river, as Dave pointed out.
Arty, where do you come up with "bad"?
LeakTracker's range is between 21.1 and 32.8 and if you're playing at higher stakes than it increases to 23.4 and 36.3

Therefore 34.5 is definitely at the highest of the range but not "bad". You do have a half a point though, The player could be a calling station, not necessarily is.

Here's what LeakTracker has to say: "High % of WTSD could be that you're a calling station or a maniacal"
Now I had no clue what that meant, so I did a search and found this:

The beautiful thing about the game of poker is that no one specific playing style can be considered ideal, or "the best."
"There are players like Chris Ferguson who play a conservative math-based game; on the other end of the spectrum there are ones like Gus Hanson who employ a seemingly maniacal style."
"In about 20 hands, maniacs make more money per hour than anyone else, about 20BB/hr"

I just checked mine.......40.82BB/hr
OOPs, I guess it's because I play Zoom
 
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Mon May 20, 2013, 03:54 PM
(#6)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
My last 5 sessions i made 90.65 bb/1hr
62.50
73.55
26.52
23.54

If i look further back i was doing like 6bb a hour lol you can see how much my game has improved in the last week or so and i havent had the best run of cards just my reads are way better than they were.
 
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Mon May 20, 2013, 05:10 PM
(#7)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,363
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
Arty, where do you come up with "bad"?
LeakTracker's range is between 21.1 and 32.8 and if you're playing at higher stakes than it increases to 23.4 and 36.3
Therefore 34.5 is definitely at the highest of the range but not "bad". You do have a half a point though, The player could be a calling station, not necessarily is.
I used to analyse stats on the 2+2 forum. I don't think I ever saw a winning player (full ring or 6max) of stakes up to 25NL that had a WTSD number of more than 30%. Part of the reason I have WTSD and AF on my HUD is so that I can identify unbluffable calling stations.
I'd be really surprised if there are any other winning players on PSO with a WTSD number as high as yours, but I'd love to see their other stats if that's the case.


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Mon May 20, 2013, 08:45 PM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
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FWIW, my last 21K hands at 25NL and 50NL 6-max my stats are 26.08/21.34/8.96, CB Flop/Turn/River 71.84/53.28/54.13, WWSF 54.4%, WTSD 27.41%, WSD 51.62%


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Tue May 21, 2013, 12:41 PM
(#9)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,363
^^ Semi-LAG detected in thread ^^

WWSF of 54.4% is excellent, by the way, especially given your higher than average VPIP. I'm only winning about 47% of pots when I see a flop. (I'm still giving up on the turn too often).


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Tue May 21, 2013, 01:00 PM
(#10)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
114K hands at 50NL 6-max Zoom my stats are 16.45/12.30/1.93, CB Flop/Turn/River 49.88/57.36/37.74, WWSF 47.18%, WTSD 34.54%, WSD 54.15%

In red those numbers are VPIP, PFR and Total AF, is that what you meant?
 
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Tue May 21, 2013, 01:07 PM
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Roland GTX's Avatar
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What does WWSF stand for?
 
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Tue May 21, 2013, 01:14 PM
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mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Was just looking at my stats for zoom 6 max 2nl since i started playing it and i think my stats look pretty bad but im making 10x more money than i was before, i got 12.50 vpip/ (lol) /8 pfr /W$WSF 41.22

Then i saw my WTSD which shocked me and it was 33.33 (How i dont know) W$SD 46 AF 1.80 3BET 3.10 Fold 3B 78 and then i got ATT steal 15% but i steal 4/5 times when im on the button i thought.

I knew my 3bet was to low but the rest of my stats look awful for zoom but ion a regular table my stats look way better but im making way more money at zoom so how come my W$SD is 46% when every session i played at zoom i made well over 10bb on average sometimes more, and my WTSD just dont make sense either because i know when im beat and fold unless it was checked down and with 46% W$SD you would think i had lost a hguge amount of money but in fact ive more than double my bankroll in 18 sessions of zoom than i made in like 300 sessions of the normal tables.

Has anyone got any idea how im making money when my W$SD is terrible lol
 
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Tue May 21, 2013, 02:26 PM
(#13)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
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Hey Mike,

3b of 3.1% isn't too low here imo. It indicates you are most likely only 3-betting for value with big hands, and not doing much, if any, light 3-betting. That's exactly right for 2nl imo.


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Tue May 21, 2013, 02:44 PM
(#14)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
I don't know if that good to hear or not lol i was hoping to get used to a strategy at 2nl that will work well for higher stakes when i hit my target for my bankroll.

I guess that's impossible though because players call to often at 2nl.
 
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Tue May 21, 2013, 02:48 PM
(#15)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,363
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roland GTX View Post
What does WWSF stand for?
Won when seeing flop. This is a fairly good indicator of your post-flop skills, but it has to be compared with your VPIP number. Someone only VPIP-ing 10% obviously sees flops very rarely, but will often have top pair+ when he does, so will tend to have a high WWSF number. Dave's WWSF number is very impressive, because he plays a lot looser than we do, so he's obviously picking good spots to barrel villain's off of their better hands.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mike2198 View Post
Was just looking at my stats for zoom 6 max 2nl since i started playing it and i think my stats look pretty bad but im making 10x more money than i was before, i got 12.50 vpip/ (lol) /8 pfr /W$WSF 41.22
If those are just 6-max numbers, then you're playing a bit too tight, but note that Zoom 2NL/5NL is a fair bit nittier than regular tables. Set-mining is rife on the zoom tables, so villains are seldom playing draws. It's all about overpairs and sets, which leads to plenty of flop stack offs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mike2198 View Post
Then i saw my WTSD which shocked me and it was 33.33 (How i dont know) W$SD 46 AF 1.80 3BET 3.10 Fold 3B 78 and then i got ATT steal 15% but i steal 4/5 times when im on the button i thought.
Like Sandtrap, you have a fairly high WTSD due to your relatively low AF. Since you're not a calling station (you often mention about folding TPTK) you might be missing some thin value by checking behind on the river.
Your ATS is ridiculously low. In Zoom games, you can get away with even more stealing than on regular tables, because villains will fast-fold their hands in the blinds. Your button steals might be OK, but stealing in the CO and SB can be very successful too, so check your figures for those positions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mike2198 View Post
I knew my 3bet was to low but the rest of my stats look awful for zoom but ion a regular table my stats look way better but im making way more money at zoom so how come my W$SD is 46% when every session i played at zoom i made well over 10bb on average sometimes more, and my WTSD just dont make sense either because i know when im beat and fold unless it was checked down and with 46% W$SD you would think i had lost a hguge amount of money but in fact ive more than double my bankroll in 18 sessions of zoom than i made in like 300 sessions of the normal tables.
Has anyone got any idea how im making money when my W$SD is terrible lol
I am really perplexed by this. It's pretty hard to make money in the long run at microstakes if your W$SD is below 50%. It could be that you're only losing small pots at showdown, but winning the big ones. I presume your blueline is still positive, but can you post your graph somewhere? (It would be great if you made a thread in the Challenges forum, so you can keep all your stats and hand replays in one place).

As Dave said about 3-betting, sticking to value hands (AK, QQ+) isn't a big mistake at 2NL, but you can mix in some light 3-bets with hands like A5s if you're in the blinds facing a raise from TAG/LAG in late position. They often fold immediately, or on the flop when you c-bet half pot.


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Tue May 21, 2013, 03:01 PM
(#16)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
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Hey Trap,

No, my 3rd number in red is 3b%. I don't put AF there because it's a post flop stat, and that line is x/y/z is preflop. I know some use z = AF, maybe I'm too **** retentive that way. z = 3b% for me.

My AF = 2.92, AFq 58.92


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Tue May 21, 2013, 03:08 PM
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bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
**** is filtered?
 
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Tue May 21, 2013, 03:08 PM
(#18)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Il make one now Arty and post up my graph, those stats are for zoom only, my reg table stats are fine, my steals make no sense because i steal like every time i thought i 3bet re steal all Axs hands i never steal from the cutoff though unless i got a real hand i open from that seat.

My low AF makes no sense aswel at reg tables its 2.1 but when i have a hand im raising and betting all the time im not passive at all i bet all my draws and raise them as for the W$SD im baffled because like i said il value bet TPTK but if i get raised i know i beat and fold i thin value bet all the time aswell now im never checking unless i cbet a flop with air and know im very likely beat and check to the river and villain turns over mid pair but i dont try and double barrel with air at 2nl unless i got some sort of draw
 
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Tue May 21, 2013, 03:09 PM
(#19)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Quote:
Originally Posted by bhoylegend View Post
**** is filtered?
Bad news for me, oh dear. Feel free to delete these posts.
 
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Tue May 21, 2013, 03:13 PM
(#20)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
^^ Semi-LAG detected in thread ^^
lol, yes, I would say I am playing moderately LAG with a fairly aggressive 3b/4b/5b game. It's always situational though... if I open up 6 tables of 50nl and play 1200 hands so 200 on each, I'll often end up on the high end with like 35/30 and on the low end 19/16, depending on the players and table dynamic during the session.

If I were playing 2NL I would almost certainly dial this down a bit. I'm certain my 3b stat would come down... a big factor in what drives it to be near 9% is frequently 3b restealing light vs. players that open ridiculous steal %'s. Since you don't see as many players at 2nl who play 24/19 and open the button 58%, I would automatically be doing less light restealing.

When I used to grind Rush I was much tighter, actually fairly nitty imo. I've always played more LAGgy in general on static tables where game flow and table dynamics develop.


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