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10NL 6-Max Zoom: folding to river raise

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10NL 6-Max Zoom: folding to river raise - Tue May 21, 2013, 12:58 PM
(#1)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
The villain is profitable and extremely tight running 6/5/2.6 over 500 zoom hands (all 6-Max). I'm not sure if I made a good fold, or if I folded the nuts here.

I weighted his range toward pairs or broadway cards preflop. I normally would lead on this flop, but I expected him to bet if he had an overpair. When he checked, I assumed he missed. The few hands he has played, he has bet his made hands and folded his missed hands.

When he flatted my turn I became a bit unsure, but thought Ax of hearts possible. I would have expected him to raise if he held an overpair or a set.

No hearts on the river and with such a nitty opening range 78 for a straight seemed unlikely.

I bet for value on the river thinking A10 and overpairs might call, but did not expect the solid raise. This guy doesn't get out of line, period.

Would he wait to the river with AA or KK then pull the trigger on this board? I couldn't see him doing this with less than a set.



Thanks!

Roland GTX
 
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Tue May 21, 2013, 05:16 PM
(#2)
adohole's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 1,083
BronzeStar
hee roland to me on this board only a few hands make saence. 87,55 and a 2 pair had with the 5. i dont think he would slowplay a set on such a wet board i could be wrond and im no 6max spacialist but im calling and expecting to see 87 or 55 or 2 pair. offcourse it could be some weird bluff aswell dont know howmuch that happens at 10nl


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Tue May 21, 2013, 06:06 PM
(#3)
TommyGun369's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 340
What a weird hand against such a nitty player. With those stats he should not even have 22,55 or 66 in his range Or maybe he only plays pocket pairs and nothing else? Who knows. But if he only plays such a tight opening range it does not make any sense for me that he only opens for the minimum OTB... I am confused.

From my experience guys playing those stats either bet very big with an overpair or trap with a set on any board and raise the river. If this guy falls into this category he really cannot have anything but a set on the river. I say good fold. Never paying off anyone with 6/5 preflop stats. Slowplaying big pairs or bluffing on T high boards is not something nits do at 10NL (at least not in Zoom) and if he is somehow capable of playing AK this way then let him have it. Unless we are stealing their blinds we do not expect to make too much money out of these guys anyway.
 
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Tue May 21, 2013, 06:23 PM
(#4)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Thanks guys!

Yeah, I couldn't figure out what he had either. Maybe he had a read on me that I didnt consider. I just couldn't see him taking that line on the river with any hand I was beating. Still confused

Roland
 
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Tue May 21, 2013, 06:30 PM
(#5)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Hey, you guys ... I've got a hand of my own that I wound up folding on the river - if I post it in HA, will you all stop by and let me know what street you'd have folded? I think I waited too long!!

Guess I do some things okay in poker ... but folding is not one of them!! Like that's my Time Vault goal for 2013, right - to get better at folding lol

This is the hand here: http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/rep...ash=209FF5EF16


Roland, this is just like some stories from me, because I'm not profitable at 10nl lol ... but a couple of times I've had regs with VPIPs as low as 8 play suited-connectors from the button. Which really surprised me, but ... maybe they knew I wouldn't generally want to play against somebody so tight? So mostly I'd fold - and on those rare times I'd call, I'd tend to have a pretty predictable hand like AK, AQ ... 98s is doing okay versus my range, and then they'd have position and the element of surprise and stuff I guess. I think I submitted such a hand to HA a while ago - let me see if I can find it ... I know the villain had a suited-connector because I didn't fold when I should of course lol - hence the submission to HA for me ...

Anyways .......


Edit: oh ... my memory's a little off - the villain had QJo and flopped a straight, and his VPIP was 13, not 8. But it still surprised me for some reason, although maybe it shouldn't have if his button steal was 29%?

Villain's HUD stats:



Replayer:

http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/rep...ash=BFC9AFFEF8

Hand Analysis:

http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...-on-the-Button

Last edited by TrustySam; Tue May 21, 2013 at 06:44 PM..
 
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Tue May 21, 2013, 06:45 PM
(#6)
TommyGun369's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 340
I know that top 2 pair is a strong hand but considering we are up against a guy playing 6/5 i do not like it as much. If he only played PP and nothing else poker stove says it's already 5.9% of hands, if we include AKo and AKs it goes up to 7.1%. I would love to see his button steal % because I cannot believe that he does not play AQ and if he does, there is no room is his range for low pairs 66 and down(maybe he is afraid of getting oversetted? )

Let's say he always cbets with an overpair which is what I would expect him to do. The fact that he does not means he is either trapping with TT,99 or is dead to 2 outs or running cards. We have to keep in mind that TT and 99 are only 2 combos of hands left (5 if we count 22 as well). If you bet the turn, you are basically hoping he calls with AK or 88. If you think, however, like me that he is not paying off even 1 bet with 88 or AK then checking and hoping for an ace or king OTR might be an alternative line. Tbh even though we have 2 pair I do not see too much value to be gained. I also do not think I like a river bet on that runout. What worse hands can pay you off? You say AT but unless his button steal % is not considerably higher he is probably snap folding AT pre. Will 88 or AK pay off another bet? No. I would check and if he bombs it I think I might even find a fold. It sounds ridiculous but I really hate paying off big river bets against nits. If he decides for a 50%-60% pot bet you can call and see if he is capable of slowplaying overpairs or bluffing with missed AK.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
Hey, you guys ... I've got a hand of my own that I wound up folding on the river - if I post it in HA, will you all stop by and let me know what street you'd have folded? I think I waited too long!!

P.S. Sure Sam I will gladly stop by and look at the hand (It's still better to wait for a proper analysis by one of our trainers though)

P.P.S. I really could not decide whether I like the turn bet or not but since a nit's range there tends to be very polarized I think a check might be better. The bet basically only protects against 33-88 to not catch their 2 outs and the only 2 combos of FD he might have: AhKh and AhQh. If we check the turn we might go for one bet OTR which gets usually looked up very light even by nits as nitty as 6/5.

Last edited by TommyGun369; Tue May 21, 2013 at 07:07 PM..
 
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Tue May 21, 2013, 08:07 PM
(#7)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,308
EDIT: About Roland's hand

With those stats, it's gonna be a slowplayed set fairly often, I think. At worst, he hit his 2-outer on the turn. There are only 2 combos of 99 and TT because of your hand, but he seems to have one of them. Great fold on the river. I think most players are calling here.


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Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Tue May 21, 2013 at 08:09 PM..
 
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Wed May 22, 2013, 02:21 AM
(#8)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Thanks for the input everyone!

@TrustySam, post your hand with some stats. That is a tough spot with AQ and tptk. I doubt I'm finding a flop fold too often, but I could see folding the turn against certain opponents (like the one in my hand). Your read on the villain in necessary to find a good line here

@Arty, I accidentally evaluated my own hand . I requested a new one with this post.

@TommyGun369, You may be right about check-calling the river rather than bet-folding.

Roland GTX
 
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Thu May 23, 2013, 03:01 PM
(#9)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,473
(Head Trainer)
Hi Greg,

First of all I don't like our preflop call. We are missing a crucial piece of info imo, his button steal %. If it's 5% (he's just opening his normal mega-nit range) then we have an easy fold preflop. If it's north of 25% then I would actually 3b as I still think we can't profitably call however he'd have so many hands that are way outside his comfort zone and he folds too much, so the wider his button open range is the more we can abuse his opens.


As played I think this is also a crucial factor in whether or not to call his river raise. I will say I think he can show us AA here, but probably not KK too often as he's less likely to allow a free card (nits have an exaggerated fear of the A-rag lovers hitting their A when they have KK). With AA he is actually pot controlling on the flop (conservative) because on this depth of money he will HATE to get check-raised. Calls turn, standard. Raises river for value because he thinks he's good as all the flopped draws missed save for 87. And this probably works for him as all the droolers he runs into at micros pay the raise off with JT without a second thought.

So certainly sets are a concern as well. This is where the button open % comes into play. If it's 5%, then I actually think we should call. The reason is small pairs aren't likely to be in that open range too often, and we block TT and 99 so there's only 1 combo of each he can hold If he just does this with AA and never KK, we are a 3-1 favorite to have the best hand (6 AA combos vs 2 set combos). Although it's not fair to say 3-1 favorite as we can't be sure about smaller pairs, it's clear that with the price the pot is laying us + a couple KK combos, we have an easy call mathematically.

If his button open is 25%, that opens up the smaller sets and puts way more better hands in his range on the river.

So to recap the 2 big keys in a spot like this for me are:

-What's his range to open the button?
-Will he play AA (and to a lessor extent KK) like this post flop some times.

I think the answer to the 2nd one is yes, given the depth of money, but obviously if he wouldn't and we knew that, it becomes a bet/fold instead of bet/call.


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Thu May 23, 2013, 05:31 PM
(#10)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Hi Greg,

First of all I don't like our preflop call. We are missing a crucial piece of info imo, his button steal %. If it's 5% (he's just opening his normal mega-nit range) then we have an easy fold preflop. If it's north of 25% then I would actually 3b as I still think we can't profitably call however he'd have so many hands that are way outside his comfort zone and he folds too much, so the wider his button open range is the more we can abuse his opens.

So to recap the 2 big keys in a spot like this for me are:

-What's his range to open the button?
-Will he play AA (and to a lessor extent KK) like this post flop some times.

I think the answer to the 2nd one is yes, given the depth of money, but obviously if he wouldn't and we knew that, it becomes a bet/fold instead of bet/call.
I looked him up in HEM. He has a btn steal 0f 47%! I was very surprized to see how active he was from late postion. I dont look at those stats while playing, but see the value of it now.

I have only a handful of showdowns for him. All vpip hands are pairs 99+ or AKs. No AA or KK in the sample.

Interesting considering 3betting pf! That though never crossed my mind. Folding did, but the depth of money was too aluring.

Thanks Dave!

Greg
 
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Thu May 23, 2013, 06:26 PM
(#11)
TommyGun369's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 340
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roland GTX View Post
He has a btn steal 0f 47%!
So that's why he min raised. Makes sense
Overall VPIP 6% and btn steal 47%? Does he open from any other position? This is the weirdest nit I have ever seen O.o
 
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Thu May 23, 2013, 11:30 PM
(#12)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,473
(Head Trainer)
Hahaha, awesome, I'd be ripping his button opens all day. Your cards don't even matter, as his fold to 3B from the button has to be huge.

He normally plays 6/5, if he only continues to a 3b with the same range he'd normally PFR, 5%, then he is folding 42/47 times or 89.4% of the time. If we 3b to .60c total we are risking .50c to win .35c. Even if we give up and never win a penny when he doesn't fold (not always the case, sometimes he'll call and we'll get lucky), if he folds this often we are making:

+.35c*(.894) - .50c*(.106) = .3129 - .053 = .2599 so we are making .26c profit or 2.6bb's profit by 3-betting any 2 cards against stats this ridiculous. Yummmm, free money.


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