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25NL - SB defend with QTs vs BTN steal

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25NL - SB defend with QTs vs BTN steal - Wed May 22, 2013, 06:28 AM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi guys,

BTN is a regular, playing 17/14/5 (191 Hands)
BTN steal 29% (17 hands)

I decided to call with QTs because Villain did not seem to fold to 3bets enough and his 4bet range was 6.5%; BB was 18/11/1 and I was not too worried of getting squeezed.

Villain cbets flop IP 60% of the time;
When he checks back the flop I think he will do this with A-rag since he cannot get 3 streets of value with his hand, Qx, KK, JJ, TT looking to call a turn bet from me after he checks the flop; He could also be slow playing big hands like a set of 4s, AQ, AA, QQ

Against his range OTT, we have like 28% equity and we call with the right pot odds.

River question: should we b/f? c/c? or c/f?

 
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Wed May 22, 2013, 10:33 AM
(#2)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
I really don't think a regular is going to slowplay a big hand on the flop all the way to the river, then bet out when any K holds the nuts. More likely he has a random Kx hand or is bluffing an underpair when checked to on river.

Going back to the beginning of the hand, I strongly believe 3-betting QTs from the SB would be a more profitable play. If you were in the BB it would be OK as your getting a better price to call and your closing the action (but 3-betting would still be good too). Just calling in the SB just puts you in a bad spot every time.

Think about how this exact hand plays out if you 3-bet it pre-flop. If you get 4-bet you can fold, saving money relative to how the hand actually played out. If you get called you can c-bet your Q on the flop. If your c-bet gets called you have a better idea about where you stand. You also probably get many of his Kx hands to fold. Not going to suckout on river when he has to fold the flop. Last possibility is he folds to your 3-bet and you show a quick small profit and move on to the next hand.
 
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Wed May 22, 2013, 10:36 AM
(#3)
TommyGun369's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 340
Hi

I would be really surprised to see a regular slowplay a set or a straong hand on that board very often so I think we can exclude 44, AQ, AK and AJ from his range. Since it is such a good board to cbet I would expect his check back range to consist of a lot of queens, ragged aces and high pocket pairs KK,JJ,TT. Ragged aces are probably not betting 2 streets because he would probably feel he has some showdown value and does not need to turn the hand into a bluff. Imho KQ, QJ, QT, AT, KK, JJ, TT are his most likely hands OTR and you are losing to all of them with the exception of QT and I am not sure if he value bets that hand on that river card...

Against this range your equity on the river is just 5.8%. Therefore you would need him to bluff in this spot 32.5% of the time which is a bit too much for me. I am folding

Tommy
 
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Thu May 23, 2013, 10:30 AM
(#4)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
Hi Geo,

I's be interested to see the BTN's F3b%> If you don't think you can show a profit by 3betting this hand then I would consider folding. It might seem nitty but we are in the SB and I prefer making a 0EV play now than playing postflop with a marginal holding OOP without initiative. It's hard to show a profit in this situation so cut your losses now imo. I agree with rockerguy that flatting in the BB would be okay because of the price we get.

Once you call, check/calling te flop is the best option imo as he can bet a lot of draws and Kx combos on that boars. When he checks back I actually like leading for value, we can get called by draws, Jx and maybe some worse Qx hands [Q9s/Q8s]. Also if he raises our turn bet I'm comfortable folding.

OTR I agree with Tommy that we can exclude monsters from the BTN's range, he will never really slowplay a big hand on that flop since you are always calling with a one pair hand so why wouldn't he build the pot..? Although I don't think he has many monsters in his range I would still fold, I don't think he would bet a one pair hand on that runout. I think bottom of his betting range is JT, given that you only just beat this hand I think it's a clear fold since we're behind way more often than ahead.


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Fri May 24, 2013, 01:45 AM
(#5)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Quote:
Originally Posted by geoVARTA View Post
Hi guys,

BTN is a regular, playing 17/14/5 (191 Hands)
BTN steal 29% (17 hands)

I decided to call with QTs because Villain did not seem to fold to 3bets enough and his 4bet range was 6.5%; BB was 18/11/1 and I was not too worried of getting squeezed.

Villain cbets flop IP 60% of the time;
When he checks back the flop I think he will do this with A-rag since he cannot get 3 streets of value with his hand, Qx, KK, JJ, TT looking to call a turn bet from me after he checks the flop; He could also be slow playing big hands like a set of 4s, AQ, AA, QQ

Against his range OTT, we have like 28% equity and we call with the right pot odds.

River question: should we b/f? c/c? or c/f?

Hey Geo

I think calling here is okay. We aren't going to be crushing money in this spot but our hand is probably too good to fold with an inactive big blind. I like flatting as opposed to three-betting as well. "When he checks back the flop I think he will do this with A-rag since he cannot get 3 treets of value with his hand."

That's all you need to say. This means that the turn check-call is marginal. Its really not a great spot. We can't check-fold the turn though with a gutshot so we can cautiously check-call. On the river we just have an easy easy check-fold.

What is his betting range after all? Villain can't be bluffing so easily. He turned down an easy spot to bluff the flop with his air. So some KX makes sense for him to bet the flop like KT and KJ, sure, but he can check these back sometimes as well.

Villains just aren't going to be bluffing enough here and they have KX in their range and they aren't value betting worse. Even if they turn up with some AT combos, those combos beat us. I don't think the raggy club flush draws will give us enough to match the price. This is a spot to stay disciplined
 
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Fri May 24, 2013, 04:46 AM
(#6)
blast126's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 204
BronzeStar
Your opponent is tight, so we can have a AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, QJ. You will lose to all these hands. I will fold.
 

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