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Sick Sequence!!! Tell me what you think.

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Sick Sequence!!! Tell me what you think. - Thu May 23, 2013, 01:20 PM
(#1)
TommysgotAs's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 154
SilverStar
Ok so this happened a whillllle back but I was looking through my replays and this one definitely stands out. Sick sequence of events (Heads Up Cash.)

Tell me what you think

http://www.boomplayer.com/poker-hand...232_6EE5282DA6


Cheers!
 
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Thu May 23, 2013, 01:47 PM
(#2)
TommyGun369's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 340
Hi Tommy

So here is what I think:
1) I am almost sure you were not properly rolled for playing 200NL HU Cash (I just hope you did not have your entire BR on the table..)
2) Even if your BR allowed you to play those stakes would you really say you were a good enough poker player to beat the games or the particular villain?
3) This post is in the wrong forum section. Next time post in "Brags & Achievements".

Is there anything else you wanted to ask about?

Tommy
 
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Thu May 23, 2013, 02:22 PM
(#3)
TommysgotAs's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 154
SilverStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by TommyGun369 View Post
Hi Tommy

So here is what I think:
1) I am almost sure you were not properly rolled for playing 200NL HU Cash (I just hope you did not have your entire BR on the table..)
2) Even if your BR allowed you to play those stakes would you really say you were a good enough poker player to beat the games or the particular villain?
3) This post is in the wrong forum section. Next time post in "Brags & Achievements".

Is there anything else you wanted to ask about?

Tommy
1) My BR was over 1k at the time so no I did not put it all on one table.

2) I'd say I was a good enough player to be playing there. I was out playing him even after that huge pot.

3) My apologies, but then again I was curious to see what people thought of that sequence... I mean full house then me hitting the higher full on the river. I'd say that's appropriate for (Cash Game HAND ANALYSIS) wouldn't you think?

Thanks for the input though.


Cheers!
 
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Thu May 23, 2013, 02:45 PM
(#4)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
The way the board ran out was fortunate for you, but I have a couple of questions.

Why did you only min 3-bet pre-flop?

What range do you put villain on when he shoves the flop?


Bracelet Winner
 
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Thu May 23, 2013, 03:05 PM
(#5)
TommysgotAs's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 154
SilverStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
The way the board ran out was fortunate for you, but I have a couple of questions.

Why did you only min 3-bet pre-flop?

What range do you put villain on when he shoves the flop?

Why did you only min 3-bet pre-flop?

What range do you put villain on when he shoves the flop?[/QUOTE]

1) Good question, I should have bet more but he was re-raising a lot so I was hoping he'd do it there but it back fired on me. He was playing very loose so and trying to steal blinds, so it was hard to put him something direct pre-flop. When the flop came and when she shoved I knew he hit a 9 but couldn't believe when he showed me the 6 :O

In the end I was fortunate but ya pretty sick.


Cheers Arty!
 
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Thu May 23, 2013, 03:35 PM
(#6)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
OK. So he was re-raising often. That means he would re-raise with worse than QQ, correct? If he's likely to make the pot bigger with a worse hand than yours, you should make a BIGGER 3-bet to gain more value for your hand, when you're almost certainly ahead.
When you min 3-bet, not only do you miss value, you also make it trivial for villain to call with anything remotely playable. The pot is $16 and villain only needs to call $4 to see a flop. He's getting pot odds of four to one, which is a bargain price. Two other factors come into play too.
1. Stacks are deep, meaning speculative hands have spectacular implied odds. The stack to pot ratio remains high, even though it's a 3-bet pot. Villain is definitely always calling with hands like 98s.
2. Villain has position on you, meaning he'll be able to out-play you post-flop, or at least put you to some tough decisions when the board is bad for your hand.

As played, villain flats your raise and the board comes 986. There's a flush draw and this board SMASHES villain's range. It's a horrible flop for an overpair. You make a c-bet, which is standard, and villain puts you all in. You need to call $152 into a pot that will total $355. That means you need to win this hand 152/355 = 43% of the time to break even.

Do you think you will win 43% of the time? You're completely crushed by sets, two pairs and made straights. You're not in great shape against various combos like pair plus OESD or pair+FD. If villain had , you're currently winning, but villain is a 52% favourite. He's also in pretty good shape with a hand like 97 (47% equity).
Since it would be pretty weird for a villain to shove all in with just one pair, no draw, I'd expect his shove is heavily weighted to value hands (2pr+) and monster draws. For me, it's an easy fold with QQ.

I agree with what TommyGun369 wrote above. To be properly rolled for any cash-game, you generally need at least 20 100bb buy-ins and that's for full ring microstakes. Since the variance in HU games is higher, and the stakes are much higher (so players tend to be better), I wouldn't sit down at this table with less than 50 buy-ins or even 100 buy-ins. For $200NL HU, a fairly typical bankroll would be $10,000 or $20,000. It's foolish to play with anything less than that, because bad streaks WILL happen. It's not uncommon for even the best players at these stakes to go on 40 buy-in downswings, just because of variance.
To play with 5 or 6 buy-ins in HU games where the risk of ruin is so high practically guarantess you'll go busto.
If you can't do the most rudimentary hand-ranging, and will routinely stack off an overpair in a spot like this, you're clearly not skilled enough to play stakes this high. You're basically relying on luck. If you don't hit that 2-outer, you just spewed $150. I'd recommend that you play much lower stakes, so your spews don't have such a terrible effect.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Thu May 23, 2013, 03:58 PM
(#7)
TommysgotAs's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 154
SilverStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
OK. So he was re-raising often. That means he would re-raise with worse than QQ, correct? If he's likely to make the pot bigger with a worse hand than yours, you should make a BIGGER 3-bet to gain more value for your hand, when you're almost certainly ahead.
When you min 3-bet, not only do you miss value, you also make it trivial for villain to call with anything remotely playable. The pot is $16 and villain only needs to call $4 to see a flop. He's getting pot odds of four to one, which is a bargain price. Two other factors come into play too.
1. Stacks are deep, meaning speculative hands have spectacular implied odds. The stack to pot ratio remains high, even though it's a 3-bet pot. Villain is definitely always calling with hands like 98s.
2. Villain has position on you, meaning he'll be able to out-play you post-flop, or at least put you to some tough decisions when the board is bad for your hand.

As played, villain flats your raise and the board comes 986. There's a flush draw and this board SMASHES villain's range. It's a horrible flop for an overpair. You make a c-bet, which is standard, and villain puts you all in. You need to call $152 into a pot that will total $355. That means you need to win this hand 152/355 = 43% of the time to break even.

Do you think you will win 43% of the time? You're completely crushed by sets, two pairs and made straights. You're not in great shape against various combos like pair plus OESD or pair+FD. If villain had , you're currently winning, but villain is a 52% favourite. He's also in pretty good shape with a hand like 97 (47% equity).
Since it would be pretty weird for a villain to shove all in with just one pair, no draw, I'd expect his shove is heavily weighted to value hands (2pr+) and monster draws. For me, it's an easy fold with QQ.

I agree with what TommyGun369 wrote above. To be properly rolled for any cash-game, you generally need at least 20 100bb buy-ins and that's for full ring microstakes. Since the variance in HU games is higher, and the stakes are much higher (so players tend to be better), I wouldn't sit down at this table with less than 50 buy-ins or even 100 buy-ins. For $200NL HU, a fairly typical bankroll would be $10,000 or $20,000. It's foolish to play with anything less than that, because bad streaks WILL happen. It's not uncommon for even the best players at these stakes to go on 40 buy-in downswings, just because of variance.
To play with 5 or 6 buy-ins in HU games where the risk of ruin is so high practically guarantess you'll go busto.
If you can't do the most rudimentary hand-ranging, and will routinely stack off an overpair in a spot like this, you're clearly not skilled enough to play stakes this high. You're basically relying on luck. If you don't hit that 2-outer, you just spewed $150. I'd recommend that you play much lower stakes, so your spews don't have such a terrible effect.

Everything you said is right I mean I probably didn't have any business being there, I know it was foolish but I knew the risk and I was ok with it. I'm definitely playing lower stakes now. In that game I got a good read on the "villian" the whole time I was there so I wasn't worried. But because it was he was so loose sometimes it was harder to put him on something and other times I was spot on. Believe it or not for the most part I'm pretty good a reading hands especially live but he was definitely reckless.

Thanks for the tips Arty and Tommy definitely going to keep all that was said in mind and hopefully learn from what was said.


Cheers!
 

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