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Flopped trips facing turn check/shove

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Flopped trips facing turn check/shove - Thu May 30, 2013, 12:05 PM
(#1)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
readless



Think it was realllllllyyyy close calling his c/r on the turn.

Nearly his whole value range there is crushing us (better aces, full houses etc).

I think he has 6s almost always here, but once I bet i figure im pot committed given the spaz factor at 5nl.

Thoughts?
 
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Thu May 30, 2013, 04:51 PM
(#2)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Hey birdayy


Gosh, I'm really struggling with the players who make non-standard plays, like limp-calling utg, or making overbets. My ranging is hardly ever right!!

Just made a fold yesterday that I can't stop wondering about - not sure if folding was the right move or not and not knowing is driving me up the wall.


Nice pot!!
 
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Thu May 30, 2013, 06:23 PM
(#3)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Ive had players do this to me before i just note them and destroy them when they do it again at zoom lol.

One guy made a habit of floating flush draw boards and shipping when it hits i took two stacks off him i guess he would of noted me for catching him out now.

The way i see it is when someone makes massive overbets they are bluffing most of the time i mean how many players jam $4 into a $1 pot when the flush hits, not many i don't think so because most players would just fold and your not getting payed.
 
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Thu May 30, 2013, 06:26 PM
(#4)
TommyGun369's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 340
Hey

There are absolutely no bluffs I can see in his range once he check shoves the turn. Your best hope is that he is overvaluing his worse aces or that he is a super crazy spazzer who would do this with 55 type of hand... It would be really weird for him to show up with AQ or AK once he limp calls utg so you should only be worried about A8,A6,88 and 66. I think 88 or 66 are most likely so I would have made a very unhappy fold. If he has any idea about this game he should always put you on trips or better so it is tough for me to imagine him shoving with AT or worse. I believe that calling this turn shove is in general a losing play here buy I admit to have played quite terribly at 5NL this month so I might easily be wrong.

Last edited by TommyGun369; Thu May 30, 2013 at 06:40 PM..
 
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Thu May 30, 2013, 06:33 PM
(#5)
TommyGun369's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 340
Quote:
Originally Posted by mike2198 View Post
how many players jam $4 into a $1 pot when the flush hits, not many i don't think
I think you would be surprised to see how many 1 tablers fish for flush and when it hits they just value shove to make up for all the times when they make a bad call OTT and miss the river. The only reason they have not all gone busto by now is that there is always someone to pay them off

Of course it could be a bluff but you have to look at it mathematically. Lets use your example when someone jams $4 into a $1 pot. You have to be right 40% of the time to make it a call. Is a random dude bluffing 40% of the time when FD completes? Do not think so

Quote:
Originally Posted by mike2198 View Post
when someone makes massive overbets they are bluffing most of the time
This is just so wrong... Do you really pay those bets off? If you do not hate money please STOP DOING THAT.

Last edited by TommyGun369; Thu May 30, 2013 at 06:39 PM..
 
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Thu May 30, 2013, 07:02 PM
(#6)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
I think Tommy's pretty much nailed this.
The limp call looks like a pocket pair. I think villain would call one bet with a random underpair, because fish never give you credit for trips, but for him to check-shove the turn when you've bet both streets is just screaming "I haz full boat, please pay meeeee!".
Villain is almost never showing up with A9 or worse here. 66 or 88 are his most likely holdings, and I'm always folding.

It's certainly true that random 2NL/5NL villains will make complete random spazzes with garbage (they actually seem to think they have the best hand with an underpair on this board) but I generally give overbets a lot of credit, because they usually represent the nuts. With specific notes on a villain, you can call and print money, but readless, this should be a very easy fold on the turn.


Bracelet Winner
 
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reply - Thu May 30, 2013, 09:11 PM
(#7)
glenn161274's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 146
It is such a crazy bet, it looks really like a bluff to me a value hand i think would bet the pot. I think i would call this because of his crazy bet if he had bet the pot i think i would have been more likely to fold ? But when i have seen this before sometimes it turns out to be a week hand would love to know what the villian was thinking if he was thinking..
 
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Fri May 31, 2013, 04:43 AM
(#8)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Thanks for the replies.

I think vs a standard tag the turn raise is a clear fold with AJ, but against a limp, we can infer he's a week player who could spaz a little more than a reg.

He's repping a really narrow range when he raises the turn, so we can be either way ahead or way behind. That's one of the hardest parts about 5nl, differentiating the fish from the people who have an idea.
 
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Fri May 31, 2013, 07:16 AM
(#9)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
A while ago I put together this 'how-to' guide for hand ranging that I came up with from live training, and posted it in my Time Vault thread:


Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post

March Goal - Learning How to Hand Range


Live Training: 'Value in All the Right Places' (Nov 1, 2012 @10:30)


Hand Ranging Template

A. Where does our hand stand in relation to the villain's?
1. What hands beat us
2. What hands do we beat

B. Where might the villain think his hand stands in relation to ours?
1. What stronger hands in our range would we play the same way?
2. What weaker hands in our range would we play the same way?

C. Determining bet size
1. What's the largest sized bet that the weaker hands will call?
2. How do we hope this bet will be perceived?

D. What do we plan on doing if reraised?
1. Reads on the villain – are they the type to bluff?
2. Villain's reads on us – do they think we're the type to bluff?
3. Have we given them any reason to perceive weakness in our line
4. The way the hand's played out – are there reasons to perceive weakness in their line? (ie are there any inconsistencies)?
5. Are there draws they could be playing this way?
6. Do we have outs to a redraw?
7. Do they want us to call or fold?

My hand ranging's still pretty underdeveloped, so I haven't yet made it to 'Part D' of my Hand Ranging Template - which would explain why my ranging is so often off (I would have probably thought the villain had a hand like 8d9d). But looking at 'Part D', maybe the villain felt (correctly) like he was most likely up against trip A's rather than a boat, and so he'd try to represent 66 since he had 55, which was close? lol Except there seems to be a whole art to bluffing convincingly, and his wasn't *totally* believable?

Thought maybe people might find that an interesting potential angle to ponder ... although, maybe the villain wasn't thinking that at all, who knows for sure I guess ...

Last edited by TrustySam; Fri May 31, 2013 at 07:20 AM..
 
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Fri May 31, 2013, 09:52 AM
(#10)
TommyGun369's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 340
Hey TrustySam

Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
maybe the villain felt (correctly) like he was most likely up against trip A's rather than a boat, and so he'd try to represent 66 since he had 55, which was close?
Heh, trying to represent 66 because his hand was close to that? That's a level I have not reached yet
He has no way of telling whether we have a boat already in this hand. I do not feel that our bet sizing gives anything away so our usual range in this hand is Ax+. Therefore if this was a value shove from him he would have to have a boat or AK, maybe AQ. AK and AQ do not make sense so it almost has to be a boat or if he feels we might fold a hand like AJ, AT he might try to bluff because this is a spot where very few people bluff (It certainly would have worked against me). However, just because people do not bluff here does not mean you should. There is a reason why it is generally not a good idea to bluff shove 55 here
 
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Fri May 31, 2013, 12:37 PM
(#11)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
@Trustysam, i doubt a player that limps utg is capable of constructing ranges that have perceived fold equity to a turn shove.

At these stakes nobody would 'bluff' here (implying fold equity on our part). They'd only spaz (as seen in this hand) or value shove. And as i said previously, when a player limps he probably has a higher probability of spazzing in comparison to other regs.
 
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Fri May 31, 2013, 01:38 PM
(#12)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
maybe the villain felt
I chose that word 'felt' because like I wasn't saying he was playing at a higher level, or ranging necessarily. In fact there's lots of evidence of the opposite in addition to the limp-call utg and the overbet on the turn - he doesn't use auto top-up, he made the decision to continue with a small pocket pair without initiative, and then didn't check-fold the flop when he failed to make a set. He also didn't notice that birdayy c-bet into two people on a AA8 board, as evidenced by his check-call with 55, which meant he wound up putting more money into the pot than he probably meant to with a hand like 55 and so the hand got away from him (that's even before the shove), etc.

So then if the villain was playing more by feel, I was just positing that maybe he might have felt that a $1 into a $1.67 pot showed apprehension, and that by making a big bet, some of the time some players who would bet that size might fold? And he would have been right - 3 out of 6 of us in this thread would have folded (I'm the 3rd). Which would still make him a losing player if that shove needs to win like 67% of the time for it to be breakeven.

Just thought I'd mention that possibility since I was one of the 3. But who knows for sure why the villain did what he did ... maybe he was drunk
 
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Fri May 31, 2013, 02:50 PM
(#13)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
This is a call imo vs a fish.

We need 33% equity, against ONLY the full houses we have 13%, but if you put in just one worse ace like A9, we jump to 32% (add AT and we're up to 42.5%). So the real question to me is, can the villain be capable of shoving worse aces due to not understanding relative hand strength, and how relevant is the spazz factor. Against a bad player (and I agree with birdayy the limp/call pre is a good clue here) I think both these factors are present enough in our favor to make calling off +EV.


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