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5NL 6-max A6s MW

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5NL 6-max A6s MW - Tue Jun 04, 2013, 10:30 AM
(#1)
fp_boss77's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 490
Hi, the SB is playing 37/26/25 - AF 6 over just 19 hands.
and the BB is playing 24/16/17 on only 27 hands.
I decided to call teh flop because he showned strength and I had the nut FD, I thought that raising would just make him call his better hands and fold the others.
I called the turn as well because I was getting almost 5:1 odds to teh FD and if I'd hit I'd certainly be paid by his aggression. Should I've folded on the turn ?



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reply to hand - Tue Jun 04, 2013, 02:03 PM
(#2)
glenn161274's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 146
5 to 1 is not the correct odds for us to chase, if the ace is also good that adds a little although if we hit the ace it might not be good and we actually might lose more money, so with the incorrect odds i think i would have folded the turn .
 
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Wed Jun 05, 2013, 12:43 AM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi fp,

Remember in school when the teacher would say "show your work". Redo the math, I don't come up with 5-1.

The implied odds are good enough if we stack him when we get there... the problem is I don't think we can count on that too often... the villain will be worried about the flush draw coming in, so the cases where we do stack him are:

-He's on a smaller flush draw... not likely given his bet sizing imo.
-He's got a very strong non-flush hand... like JT or a set.

And even with these hands stack action is hard because a diamond river he may decided to check/call instead of bet/call off.

I think on balance we have a fold here as played.


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Wed Jun 05, 2013, 12:42 PM
(#4)
fp_boss77's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 490
For the odds calculations I used 4,53/0,78 which gave me almost 6:1 implied odds. And the odds for the flush there would be 4:1.
I don't think that a 5NL player would fold sets or TdJd to a river raise there after showing this strength, I've seen a lot of players stack with the second or thired nut flush.
My odds calculations are wrong ?

Thanks
 
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reply to hand - Wed Jun 05, 2013, 03:01 PM
(#5)
glenn161274's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 146
I was meaning the 78c to win the pot and the rest of his stack as well , think it was closer to 7 to 1.
 
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Wed Jun 05, 2013, 06:50 PM
(#6)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
Quote:
Originally Posted by fp_boss77 View Post
For the odds calculations I used 4,53/0,78 which gave me almost 6:1 implied odds. And the odds for the flush there would be 4:1.
$4.53 is the absolute maximum you can get out of villain, but I think it's unlikely he'll give you his whole stack. On bad river cards, he might check-call, or bet-fold.
A more likely amount for how much villain will put in on the river would be double his turn bet, so you might get $1.60 out of him there. That brings the implied odds closer to 4:1 or 5:1, so it's close, but I'd err on the side of caution and fold the turn. It's also possible that you hit a flush, but the board pairs and villain makes a boat/quads. :/


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