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5NL 6-max AA

5NL 6-max AA - Tue Jun 04, 2013, 10:36 AM
fp_boss77's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 490
Hi, the villain is unkown.
Should I ever fold to the turn raise on this wet board ?

Any thoughts on the han overall ?
I played it bad ?

Tue Jun 04, 2013, 06:23 PM
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,324
This looks like a standard Baluga Theorem spot. In case you've not heard of it, the BT says something like "If you get raised on the turn, re-evaluate the strength of one pair hands", with the implication being that you should consider folding.
I'd actually go with a bigger bet on the turn for a few reasons.
When villain check-calls the flop, he often has one pair or a draw. If he has Kx, then he will call the turn and most likely the river too, so you can go for three streets of value and get paid by worse hands like KQ.
If he has a draw on the flop, but the draw doesn't get there on the river, he will be check-folding the river. Since you can only get two streets of value from draws that miss, you need to bet bigger on the turn, to get your value while villain is still drawing.
Another reason to bet bigger is that it will make it very hard for villain to check-raise as a bluff. If you define the strength of your hand with a big bet, so it looks like you're never folding, villain is almost never bluffing when he raises. He'd be raising for value, and this means you can feel good about folding, because one pair is smoked by villain's value-raising range.

The turn puts out another flush draw, so villain might have picked up additional outs with a hand like KQdd, but I think most 5NL players would just check-call again with that hand. When villain check-minraises, it's pretty sick, because the pot odds are so cheap, but you have very few outs if you're behind. Villain's range is weighted towards sets and two pairs. You're in pretty bad shape against that range, so I think folding - even though it's a lousy minraise - is the best option, as villain is certainly going to bet the river and win some more of your stack.
The river doesn't change much, except QJ and KT sucked out, but I think you have to fold, based on the turn action. One pair (even an overpair) won't be good at showdown anywhere near as often as it needs to be, given the price of finding out.

I'm quite surpised villain shows up with K3s here. The "check-call, check-raise" line would incline me to put villain on a set of 4s or 9s.

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