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STTs - Everything Goes Cold

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STTs - Everything Goes Cold - Wed Jun 05, 2013, 10:56 AM
(#1)
Ed3819's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 7
Hi again. For those of you who didn't read my last post, I am a very average player trying to take my game to the next level. I mainly play Sit And Go's, and I have had the odd cash in MTTs but nothing to write home about. I struggle to cash in MTTs, but I'm working on that.

My topic for discussion was sparked from my latest run of STTs. I am hitting what I have called "a cold spell." I'm not saying that I'm suffering bad beats or tilting. Because I'm not. Let me tell you what has been happening:

-Early Stages and Middle Stages of STT: I pick up AA, KK, QQ, raise and everyone folds.

-Middle Stage: I get down to 10 Big Blinds, everyone folds to me on the button and I make the standard all in with hands like any pair, any ace, etc.. AND I RUN INTO ACES KINGS OR QUEENS.

-I can't seem to accumulate any chips. And I am struggling to cash.

I am in profit after 100+ games, and I have been playing my regular style, avoiding tilt, grinding out variance etc.. Is there a name for what I am experiencing here? Or does this fall under "variance?" And what should I do? I normally play $3 Sit and Go's, and I have moved down to $1.50.

Is there a name for this, where you just can't seem to get ANY momentum?

It's getting a little frustrating. So I would be very grateful for any help. Thank you in advance.

-Ed-
 
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Wed Jun 05, 2013, 11:41 AM
(#2)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
I think breakeven/downswing covers it.

It is frustrating but all you can do is make sure that you are making +ev plays as much as possible.
 
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Wed Jun 05, 2013, 11:58 AM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,801
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Hi Ed3819!

I agree with bhoy, it's a downswing or variance run. These stretches are going to happen to every poker player, honestly, I'm just coming out of a 6 week stretch of it myself. The way to make it thru them is to keep playing your game and not to try to force getting chips. Also, make sure that you use good bankroll management. There's a reason why for BRM, I want to have 100 buy-ins in my bankroll for a given game.. and this type of run is exactly why.

Hang in there, as the odds will work themselves out over time.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Wed Jun 05, 2013, 01:07 PM
(#4)
wilcogold's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 69
Although being a winner player for 100 games seems nice, this is really not to be considered a samplesize. Perhaps you just ran very hot these games, and are experiencing 'usual' toughness now. Surely I can be wrong about this of course! But when I was 4 or 6 tabling I could reach that amount in a night. See; I ran quite far above break even for 800 games (10% ROI in the $1.50) since joining this forum, yet I busted it all recently.

Now when I started to analyse my game in the still working HM2 trial, I see that clearly, I shouldn't have been winning playing these games. All it did was providing me with way too optimistic views on my gameplay. I would redeposite after a series of 'bad beats'..

I have so many leaks, it's like nothing I did was close to optimal, even though I thought it was. When rereading Harrington next to my newest purchases 'The Little Green Book' and Moshman's book, I think I have to start all over with regards to my decision making.

For example any ace when down to 10bb is quite way too loose in many spots, and how is your betsizing with aces?

Surely this is just me, and yes I also ran extremely cold (both for real and in my view!), yet a lot of these seemingly bad beats were just stupid plays which could easily have avoided if I just had invested more time in my studying of the game and not playing where suffering a severe lack of sleep.

Just my two cents, but I want to encourage you to look into this in an objective way, or ask other people to do this with recordings or HHs. Good Luck

Your Sharkscope looks quite normal to be honest, you just quit playing at a low bump. Your ROI is very nice, neglecting the samplesize. at some point I had 50% ROI playing 27 $3.50 6-max games..

I don't know you and never saw you playing before, so I may have no idea what I'm talking about. Also, I should start a blog around here I guess.

greetings,

Wilco (a fellow beginner SNG player)

Last edited by wilcogold; Wed Jun 05, 2013 at 01:13 PM..
 
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Wed Jun 05, 2013, 01:36 PM
(#5)
wilcogold's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 69
Just a quick note, I see that your average buy-in is over 3 dollars, which means that at top of your graph you had a net winnings of like a handful games, while swings of 50 games are deemed normal..
 
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Wed Jun 05, 2013, 04:04 PM
(#6)
Ed3819's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 7
I'm following the strategy in the STT course in the Poker School. My raises in the early stage are 4x +1BB per limper, and in late position make it 3x. Play super tight early on etc.. I'm taking notes on all of the players I run into. And at the micros you would not believe how many hands these people play!! Limping under the gun with off suit aces, marginal hands such as JQ off suit UTG. I'm writing notes every hand because there is a showdown almost every hand. It's like there's at least 4 calling stations at each table. HOWEVER, taking notes is really helping me with my reads, and decision making. I do adapt to the table and each player accordingly.

Funny thing is, I played the same way at the cash tables, and came away with $51. I had a super hot streak. It amused me how you can be cold in tournaments, and get the top 5% of hands and get paid with them on the cash tables.

It's a strange game but I'm guessing that's what keeps us coming back.

You mentioned starting a blog. What sort of detail should I go into? And will I be able to get feedback on my blog?

Thank you very much for your help.
 
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Wed Jun 05, 2013, 05:11 PM
(#7)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,801
(Super-Moderator)
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Cash game strategy and tournament strategy are 2 totally different animals. The same types of things will not necessarily work at both.
For example, here are the raises I use (in tourneys based on blind level, not position). 3BB+1BB for each limper to start with. Lower to 2.5BB+1BB for each limper when I get to 100/200. Lower again to 2.2BB+1BB for each limper when I get to 1k/2k.
Also, bluffing in micro tourneys, especially early, is a losing proposition and doesn't even enter into my thought process. Value bet, value bet, value bet.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Wed Jun 05, 2013, 05:58 PM
(#8)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ed3819 View Post
Is there a name for this, where you just can't seem to get ANY momentum?

I was playing STTs a couple of months ago when my HUD was down (I used to play them exclusively), and here's the pokerprolabs profile of a profitable multi-tabling reg who was at one of my tables. The sort of variance he's experiencing is pretty similar to what I used to experience more or less I guess.

http://pokerprolabs.com/topsharkpro?...ermit64&tt=sng


There's another player at PSO, Ovalman, who used to play STTs and I recall him mentioning having similar patches of variance.


For some reason I found the tilt to be so much worse with STTs, at least for me. So I switched to cash games (zoom) where we can sit out and take breaks whenever we feel like it, which is nice

Last edited by TrustySam; Wed Jun 05, 2013 at 08:05 PM.. Reason: oops - forgot to include the link :D
 
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Wed Jun 05, 2013, 07:09 PM
(#9)
Killeraxa89's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 359
The variance is absolutely sick. In the last 2 days I've played alot of them and any two cards are never a sure thing. Some games you will be cold as ice and in others you will run like a maniac like I just did in my last STT 1.50 which I got allin with the worst hands and won and flopped the nuts everytime.

So in order to avoid this BR management is a must for MTT and especially STT. I haven't really BR properly so after 3 days of nothing but these tournaments I'm still at even money. Atleast I'm almost chrome
 
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Wed Jun 05, 2013, 08:10 PM
(#10)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
When I played $1.50 STTs, there was a period where I was break-even for 150 games! And I had positive ROI so like maybe I had no reason to complain, but the tilt during that break-even period was so bad I did wind up switching permanently to cash games. Where there's also a lot of variance, but yeah at least we can sit out there
 
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Sat Jun 08, 2013, 10:00 AM
(#11)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
I agree with Wilco about the sample size. It's way too small so you can't really draw any conclusions from it. This is only my opinion, but I'd say you need 5000 games or more before you can fairly compare you ROI with other players.

What you can do after 100-200 games (and a losing streak) is to analyse if you're tilting or if you've just been unlucky. If you run into monsters or bad beats time after time, I wouldn't get worried. I know that in the long run I'm making the correct (profitable) plays if I call those shoves with better or dominating starting hands. (it's not that simple but anyway)

If you find yourself calling 5x BB or more with hands like Q9 when someone shoves and you lose to their 42 ... take a break and find out why that's a bad call in the long run no matter who's shoving or what two cards you think they're holding.

About variance, it's about luck, skill, and the speed of the tournament. Hyper-turbos have more variance than turbos or normal-speed STTs. I often look at my STT leaderboard points which are calculated in 100 tourney blocks per buy-in level. I've scored less than 800 in 100 games a few times which makes my ROI around -20% but after over 15,000 STTs this year my ROI is quite positive
 
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Sat Jun 08, 2013, 11:31 AM
(#12)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
I'm +$55 and 84% ROI in 12 STTs on another site today plus $3 rakeback, I ran the races report on these and am winning 59% of all flips. I've maybe took some of your luck but it comes and goes around. 2 days ago when I ran the same report on Pokerstars (for my freeroll challenge) I was winning just 44%.

What matters more is making the right decisions. Many of those flips I won were shove spots on certain players and running them into better hands (and winning.) Luck is a short term factor, skill is what is needed in the long term.
 

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