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5NL 6-max Zoom TJo

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5NL 6-max Zoom TJo - Thu Jun 06, 2013, 03:26 PM
(#1)
fp_boss77's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 490
Hi, villain is playing 24/24/0 over jsut 18 hands.
I couldn't fold the turn right? Should I've raised the turn ?
And on the river strong bet, if I raise could a worst hand ever call ?



Thanks
 
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Fri Jun 07, 2013, 01:07 AM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi fp,

His turn raise is a scary proposition. I think most players would just call with a king. His value range in this spot is QJ, KT, T9, 99, AT/QT/JT. This is obviously a bad range for us since we're not winning, but it's uncertain how many combos of these he can actually hold... surely not all of them. The first 4 in particular would often raise the flop on such a wet board. The naked trips wouldn't raise the flop. Let's count them up.

Uncertain because no flop raise:
KT - 3 combos
T9 - 3 combos
99 - 3 combos
QJ - 12 combos

Definitely not flop raise from:

AT - 4 combos
QT - 4 combos
JT - 3 combos

Semi-bluffing range includes a bunch of spade combos and some straight draws, but it's odd to wait til the turn for this as many players who play draws aggressively do it on the flop here. It seems hard for him to have a pure bluff in this spot. Over all I think this big turn check-raise is bad news for our hand strength. And especially considering we're not just calling this turn bet, but are also likely to face a big river barrel, yes I think we can find a fold on the turn. Does that make sense? I think we got lucky that he had one of the few semi-bluffs in his range here, deciding to peel the flop, then using what he perceived as a scare card for you (which if you don't hold trips+ it is a scary card) to semi-bluff his gutter. I think we're usually paying off a better hand here if we don't improve.

As played, I think just calling the river is optimal without reads. We still lose to KT and 99, QJ isn't likely to call if we shove, and we tie everything else.


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