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5NL 6-max Zoom 22 PF

5NL 6-max Zoom 22 PF - Thu Jun 06, 2013, 03:32 PM
fp_boss77's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 490
Hi, the villain that 3-bets is playing 14/11/20 over just 30 hands. The flat calelr is playing 29/14/0 over just 29 hands.

Can I call with pocket pairs in these spots to set mine after having a cold caller and closing the action ?

Thu Jun 06, 2013, 07:00 PM
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,355
I think this one's pretty close. When set-mining, I usually want implied odds of 15:1 to make it worthwhile to play the "spike or hike" game. The button is pretty tight, so he's likely to have a big hand here, which means you have a good chance of stacking him if you make a set and he can't fold an overpair. The problem is that you're OOP, so it will be harder to get full value, as villain could check-behind for pot control on one street. But let's do the math.
You need to call 30c, so implied odds of 15:1 mean you need to be able to win 15 * 30c = $4.50. There's already $1.10 in the pot, and you'll have $4.30 behind. $1.10 + $4.30 = $5.40. When you factor in the third player, who may also put some money in the pot post-flop, you could win even more. So the potential prfot is a bit more than fifteen times the cost of calling, but I'd be reluctant to play the smallest pair here, as there's a slightly higher chance of being over-setted. That coupled with being OOP to the 3-bettor makes this one a close fold, I think. Calling with 66+ would probably be fine, and the post-flop line I'd take if I hit a set would be to check-call the flop, check-shove the turn. If villain checks the turn, then lead the river.

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